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sizov-andre.bsky.social
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A perfect storm of heavy fund selling, weak U.S. exports, and higher 2025/26 U.S. #wheat & #corn acreage estimates pushed prices down WoW. #oatt #sizovreport

Ukrainian debt market clearly was disappointed with Friday's shouting match. 2034 USD bonds down 4%+ today. #oatt #sizovreport

#Wheat stays under pressure as #corn sell-off weighs on the market. Friday’s quarrel, weak DXY, and a damaged merchant vessel in Odesa—largely ignored for now. #oatt #sizovreport

Big funds’ #corn longs liquidation yesterday—private estimates put it at ~10K contracts, but I’d guess more. Yet, OI is slightly up… Farmers hedging, or something else? #oatt #sizovreport

Lower #wheat & #corn supply is dragging #Ukraine’s grain exports down YoY. 📉 Low stocks 🚜 Tight supply 💰 Farmers holding grain That 2H 2024 export spike? Just catch-up from 2023’s “grain deal” collapse. #oatt #blacksea #sizovreport

#India is poised to enter the summer season with one of the warmest March months on record, and above-average temperatures throughout most of the month threaten to cut yields of the maturing #wheat crop, two weather bureau sources said. economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/i... #oatt #agwx

#Wheat: stairs up… elevator down. How far is the ground floor? 🤔 #oatt #sizovreport #grains

SovEcon Lowered Russian #Wheat Export Forecast for 2024/25 Free note: blog.sizov.report/sovecon-lowe... #oatt #agwx #blacksea #sizovreport

SovEcon Lowers Russian #Wheat Export Forecast for 2024/25 📉 Get the details in our free note: 🔗 blog.sizov.report/sovecon-lowe... #oatt #sizovreport #blacksea #grains

Stop discussing the “$500 bln mineral deposits”—zero practical sense. If they were really there and *made economic sense to mine*, why wasn’t anyone doing it in peacetime? 🤷‍♂️ #ukraine #russia #oatt #blacksea

Interesting temporary (?) divergence between #corn (black) and CBOT #wheat (green) today. Geopolitics could be the driver. 🤔 #oatt #sizovreport #wheat #corn #geopolitics

#Corn climbs back above 4.95—Argentina’s wetness could be the driver. Will 4.95 hold? Longs definitely want to know… 🤔🌽

Sell-off in #grains rolls on… 📉 CBOT #wheat is now trading below its 100DMA as funds likely return to selling our poor fellow (May contract this time). Where’s the bottom? 🤔 #oatt #sizovreport

#oatt #wheat #ukraine #sizovreport

Sell-off in #grains rolls on… 📉 CBOT #wheat is now trading below its 100DMA as funds likely return to selling our poor fellow (May contract this time). Where’s the bottom? 🤔 #oatt #sizovreport

Well… $5.15 was indeed a solid selling opportunity for May #corn. 📉 Interesting to see open interest still rising—farmers' selling? #oatt #sizovreport

Oil companies are dropping their targets to cut oil and gas output...Who'd have thought? --- RTRS: #BP will scrap a target to increase renewable generation, returning the focus to fossil fuels.. BP's shares have underperformed rivals and the firm has dropped its target to cut oil and gas output

SovEcon: #Wheat bids in Russian ports declining as traders trying to improve their margins Free note: blog.sizov.report/sovecon-russ... #oatt #russia #sizovreport #blacksea

Come on, FT—why not ask someone who actually understands farming? 🙈 Trying to swap nitrogen fertilizer for manure is a bad idea: Lower nitrogen content, harder to apply, logistic issues... (And if I were a Brussels ag bureaucrat, I’d avoid talking too much about manure—might not end well.)

#Corn chart isn’t looking too friendly for the bulls… 📉 Below the 20DMA & December uptrend line. And that ~5.15 level? A solid selling opportunity—just as hinted in the Feb 18 post. 😉 #oatt #sizovreport

Acreage survey average estimates ahead of USDA Ag Outlook Forum this week, per Bloomberg: Corn: 93.5 million (versus 90.6 mil. planted in 2024) Soybeans: 84.4 million (87.1 mil. last year) Wheat: 46.7 million (46.1 mil. last year) Cotton: 10.0 million (11.2 mil. last year)

Milder temps in the Northern Hemisphere & improved weather in South America are weighing on #wheat & #corn prices. 📉 #oatt #sizovreport #agwx

Come on, FT—why not ask someone who actually understands farming? 🙈 Trying to swap nitrogen fertilizer for manure is a bad idea: Lower nitrogen content, harder to apply, logistic issues... (And if I were a Brussels ag bureaucrat, I’d avoid talking too much about manure—might not end well.)

SovEcon: #Wheat bids in Russian ports declining as traders trying to improve their margins Free note: blog.sizov.report/sovecon-russ... #oatt #russia #sizovreport #blacksea

Black Sea winter #wheat is enduring extreme cold… ❄️ Fully priced in by now? 🤔 More insights: sizov.report/?utm_campaign=Feb20 #oatt #agwx #sizovreport

Harder, better, faster, stronger #soybeans #oatt #china

The first cold night has passed in Russia’s winter #wheat regions—another one coming… ❄️🌾 Our quick take in our Discord group: sizov.report/?utm_campaign=feb19 #oatt #agwx

#Wheat keeps battling the 200DMA…still looks like there’s more downside risk than upside. 📉🌾 #oatt #sizovreport

The #corn rally continues! 🌽🚀 First front-month close above $5 since October 2023. But…why were funds selling last week? 🤔 #oatt #sizovreport

Brazil’s second (safrinha) hashtag#corn planting is picking up after a slow start, —but it’s still below average *for now*. Safrinha accounts for 70%+ of the total crop. #oatt #agwx #sizovreport

#Corn inspections were decent, and the winterkill jokes are fun… But is this rally way overdone? Or are we still trading the narrative that US corn carry-out is overestimated? 📈🤔 #oatt #sizovreport

🌾 #Wheat still holding strong with the ongoing cold weather… ❄️ Can it finally close above the 200DMA? We haven’t seen that since October 2024 (though we all remember what happened next… 😉) #oatt #sizovreport #agwx

Matif #wheat slips a few euros despite CBOT being closed. Is the market starting to price in potential Black Sea truce news? #oatt #sizovreport #blacksea #ukraine #russia

Despite all the tariff doom and gloom, the US Dollar Index keeps weakening…could lend some support to ags, #wheat included. 📉🌾 #oatt #sizovreport #DXY

Cold weather in the U.S. and Russia lifted #wheat prices, while #corn found support from the drought in Argentina. More: sizov.report/reports/2545... #oatt #blacksea #sizovreport

The EU may restrict #soybeans imports from the US amid rising tensions. In 23/24, the bloc imported ~5 MMT (184M bushels) of US beans out of a total 13 MMT. 🌍🇪🇺🇺🇸 - FT: The European Commission will agree next week to explore greater import limits...the targets could include US soybeans #oatt

The EU may restrict #soybeans imports from the US amid rising tensions. In 23/24, the bloc imported ~5 MMT (184M bushels) of US beans out of a total 13 MMT. 🌍🇪🇺🇺🇸 - FT: The European Commission will agree next week to explore greater import limits...the targets could include US soybeans #oatt

Russian ruble is surging—USDRUB down 20%+ since January highs. 🌾 Implications for #wheat: 🔹 Bullish short-term – Russian wheat is less competitive in USD, and traders’ margins are already near zero or negative. #sizovreport #oatt #russia

The market: Nobody eats bread anymore, #wheat demand is weak, and supply is overwhelming. Reality: Russian spot FOB prices just hit an 8-month high… 📈🌾 More: sizov.report/reports/2538... #oatt #blacksea #sizovreport

So the peace negotiations have started officially, no reaction from #grains though. Fully priced in?? TRUMP: AGREED W/ PUTIN TO HAVE TEAMS START NEGOTIATIONS IMMEDIATELY

Trading #grains? Easy… ✅ Sell on a stronger dollar ✅ Buy on a weaker dollar* ✅ Occasionally do the opposite—like today 😉 *Not investment advice. All stunts performed by professionals—don’t try this at home. #Corn sharply higher today despite all the gloomy fundamentals... #oatt #sizovreport

Russian #wheat exports are sharply down YoY in 2025… No demand? ❌ Mostly no supply. Stocks are plunging across key export regions and domestic prices are on the rise More insights in our stocks report: sizov.report/reports/2537... #oatt #blacksea #russia #sizovreport

Wonder how #corn longs are feeling today… 🤔 Yesterday’s #WASDE was a letdown for the bulls. #oatt #agwx #sizovreport

The Black Sea remains abnormally warm, posing no immediate risks for winter #wheat. 🌾 However, with limited snow cover in many regions, a serious cold snap could quickly change the situation. ❄️ #oatt #agwx #sizovreport #blacksea

BREAKING: President Zelensky says the country is prepared to offer a territory swap with Russia. Reality: 0 news. Kyiv and the Biden administration have been hinting at this for months—Moscow isn’t interested.

Canadian marketing is fast

Have a great #WASDE day My information bubble is strangely calm today…too calm. #oatt #sizovreport