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spacewxwatch.bsky.social
Aurora forecasts and solar physics updates by a space weather physicist working at NASA. Currently battling Long COVID. Opinions may not represent official government forecasts. https://spacewxwatch.com
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Today is the one year anniversary from when I first got sick. There’s so much I want to say that couldn’t possibly fit here, so I shared my thoughts over at Prairie Home Magazine. If you decide to read it, thank you for your time. #longcovid #longcovidawareness prairiehomemag.com/one-year-of-...

HAPPENING NOW: X2.0-class flare in progress from the Sun's western limb. A significant solar storm (coronal mass ejection) in association with this flare is likely. A radiation storm at Earth is also possible. #spacewx

NEW: Probability of “city-killer” asteroid YR4 impacting Earth on December 22, 2032 now increased to 3.1% (now 1 in 32), per NASA.

The asteroid is approximately 220,000,000 kilograms or 440,000,000 pounds, about as heavy as a very large cargo ship—moving at 17 kilometers (11 miles) per second.

Odds of “city-killer” asteroid YR4 impacting Earth now increased to 2.6%, per NASA Just about equal odds of betting on a single number straight on one spin of American (double zero) roulette

(1/4) The 2024 YR4 asteroid is currently a 3 on the Torino scale (code yellow), an integer scale from 0 to 10 for categorizing the likelihood and consequences of a potential impact event.

A minor geomagnetic storm is ongoing now due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream. Folks at high northern latitudes and possibly the northern-most fringes of the U.S. may potentially see some aurora tonight! If you see anything, be sure to let us know!

Our Instagram is looking a bit empty and dull... if you have any aurora photos from May or October where we helped notify you, we'd love for you to tag us as a contributor! www.instagram.com/spacewxwatch/

I think this is one of my favorite real-time clips of the aurora I have ever recorded! Tonight was something special 🌌

HAPPENING NOW: M8.8-class solar flare from explosive spot region AR 3981:

SOLAR HIGH SPEED STREAM IMPACTING EARTH NOW: As expected, Earth has come under the influence of a solar coronal hole high speed stream with wind speeds steadily climbing today from the mid 400 km/s to now above 700 km/s.

Are we sure it's the #YearOfTheSnake and not the #YearoftheSquirrel?

The Lunar New Year is tomorrow! The New Moon will occur at 12:36 UTC tomorrow (07:36am Eastern Time). #LunarNewYear #LunarNewYear2025

Storming could be in the forecast for this weekend as a large coronal hole will face Earth in the next day or two. It'll take 2-3 days more for the enhanced solar wind associated with this CH to reach our planet. When the high speed stream arrives, it could disrupt Earth's magnetic field.

Here’s an awesome group to join if you wanna talk real time space weather, a lot of great folks from the space community here!! t.co/VuycWKzGIM

Fun Fact: Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), the sole provider of coronagraph imagery from L1 along the Sun-Earth line, was originally planned for a 2 year mission in Dec 1995, or 730 days. As of 23 Jan 2025, SOHO is on mission day 10,646! ☀️🛰️

A few Earth-directed CMEs are currently in transit; here's one that occurred yesterday with an M3.3-class flare in the 304 imagery. You can see a brightening and most of the more interesting, dense material flying off there to the southeast

A filament eruption occurred on the Earth-facing disk earlier but no SOHO coronagraph imagery is currently available, likely in relation to the evacuation of personnel following the California wildfires.

Highly recommend this great article by @vincentledvina.bsky.social on the October storm if you have a few minutes; it's a deep dive but well worth your time!! theauroraguy.com/blogs/blog/t...

Earth appears to be under the influence of a CME early this morning starting around 07/04:00Z, probably from that partial halo CME which originated on the 4th. The signature is quite weak; not expecting much geomagnetic activity-wise tonight, but nice to see the arrival, since we were expecting it!

Solar energetic particles are on the rise following a big partial halo CME to the west from an eruption near Active Region 3939, in addition to some big flaring occurring today from Active Region 3947 in the east. The CME is probably at least partially Earth-directed, but we’ll keep you updated.

What we’re seeing now is probably the 29/01:30Z CME, there might be more coming

SOLAR STORM ARRIVAL Based on initial data, probably expecting a Kp of 4-6.5 sometime today, unless more arrive! Hoping this lasts into the evening for North America!

An X-class solar flare is in progress.

Just how busy has it been in space weather? According to the CME Scoreboard application, NASA's Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office has been tracking twelve different solar storms with a potential Earth-directed component since December 22.

Solar activity was at very high levels today with Active Regions 3929, 3932. 3933, 3936, and 3940 all getting in on M-class flaring. For just the UTC day on December 29 alone, there were 21 M-class flares or greater.

Here comes another partial halo, the likely third Earth-directed CME of the day 😪

A Strong Geomagnetic Storm Watch (Kp=7, G3) is in effect for 31 December due to anticipated CME effects.

We could have New Year’s Eve fireworks on the way following an Earth-directed partial halo launched from the Sun today that may arrive at Earth strongly on the last day of 2024. Please make sure you’re following for updates!

We’ve got a special message for ya over on the IG story www.instagram.com/spacewxwatch...

The Sun is going nuts right now 😨

TONIGHT: Awaiting the possible arrival of the beginning of a CME train (multiple CMEs, one after another) from Active Region 3932 that started on the 22nd. CME influences at Earth are expected over the next few days until Saturday

Merry Christmas and Season's Greetings, Space Weather Watchers! We've got about six opportunities to see some #aurora over the next few days... here's hoping for some more red and green!

(1/3) Merry Christmas! In the hot seat today and won't be sharing a lot of updates as activity is extremely high. All I can say is Active Region 3932 is an absolute menace. We're tracking a train of six potentially Earth-directed CMEs to arrive between today and Saturday.

Would you prefer a white Christmas or a green (aurora) Christmas? 🎄☀️

What a day at work… the three wise men disguised as Earth-directed CMEs… Three more very minor storms launched from the Sun could be on the way, arriving near the 28th timeframe

A Minor Geomagnetic Storm Watch (G1, Kp=5) has been issued for Christmas Day due to potential CME effects