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stephenhoopes.bsky.social
Fantasy football writer and interception prop bets @4for4football.bsky.social. FSWA member. Data scientist. Goeh bherds 🦅
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submitted 4 days ago • 0 comments

Deep % was a surprisingly important variable when looking at TE projections. It's the share of a TE's targets that traveled 20+ air yards. 77% of TEs with a deep % below 2.5% saw their fantasy points per game drop the next season. And none of them hit 10 half-PPR FP/game.

submitted 5 days ago • 2 comments

A heartfelt “go birds” to you and yours.

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

We're 1 week from the Superbowl! When PHI is on offense, it's a strength-on-strength matchup between Saquon's explosive run rate and KC's ability to limit those runs. PHI's defense has been elite but average in sack rate. Fortunately, Mahomes hasn't been quite the same this year in sack avoidance.

submitted 20 days ago • 1 comment

In 2024, RBs had their highest rate of goal-line touches since 2019. But we're really just back to how RBs were used in the late 2010s. Also, WRs surprisingly had their 2nd-highest volume share over that same span. With a wide-enough view, it's really QB rushing taking away TE targets.

submitted 23 days ago • 1 comment

Saquon Barkley hit 10 30+ yard runs this regular season. That was the most of any RB since AP in 2012. The issue is what we see these RBs do in the following season. Since 2010, no RB with 6+ 30-yard runs hit that number the following year. It’s that empty area in the top-right of the graph below.

submitted 28 days ago • 1 comment

You know that WR injuries were brutal in 2024, but you're underselling it. Looking at the # of weeks lost to IR among all WRs, the number is below average. The problem was injuries were concentrated among top WRs. Among team WR1s, we lost 153 weeks to IR. That is the highest # since at least 2010.

submitted 29 days ago • 1 comment

Bit of a deep dive on rushing yards over expected (RYOE). I’ll start with the takeaway and then dig into the details. Takeaway: RYOE is an average stat when a RB stays with the same NFL team. It’s frankly a bad stat when a RB changes teams (small sample caveat).

submitted 30 days ago • 1 comment

aDOT vs. PFF Adjusted Accuracy (removes drops and throwaways) Thanks to @stephenhoopes.bsky.social for making the graph.

submitted 44 days ago • 3 comments

Week 18's efficiency matchups! BUF has the best passing matchup but once Josh Allen continues his consecutive starts streak, he's expected to rest. PHI has a similarly good matchup, but it's a meaningless game with Hurts coming back from injury. BAL's in a great spot playing for the division.

submitted 53 days ago • 1 comment

Week 17's efficiency matchups! BUF has a 93rd-percentile passing matchup. But it’s hard to get excited about Josh Allen’s receivers. No individual pass catcher exceeded 26 yards last week. TB gets CAR. Last week, Jalen McMillan had one fewer target than Mike Evans and finished with 105 air yards.

submitted 60 days ago • 1 comment

Week 16's efficiency matchups! BUF has a 96th-percentile matchup against NE. NE's pass defense is 2nd-worst in EPA, while BUF's offense looks unstoppable. Yet, Amari Cooper was not among the 9 pass catchers with a target last week after earning 14 the week before. He’s still not a full-time player.

submitted 66 days ago • 1 comment

Sam Darnold has completed 55.8% of his 20+ air-yard throws. Among QBs with 50+ attempts, that is the best mark over the past decade. The following season has been rough in these situations, though. That includes Matt Ryan in 2017 (52.6% to 27.4%) and C.J. Stroud this year (52.2% to 33.3%).

submitted 72 days ago • 0 comments

Since PHI's bye, A.J. Brown has earned 31.3% of team targets. But that's only about 6 targets/game. From Weeks 6-14, PHI has averaged 6 fewer pass attempts per game than 31st-place GB. Extrapolating Brown’s target earning, he'd get 4 more targets/game on an average NFL team and 6 more on the Browns.

submitted 72 days ago • 0 comments

Week 15's efficiency matchups. BAL has the best pass matchup this week, with their 92nd percentile game against NYG. But they've hit a positive PROE in only 2 games this year. Jauan Jennings looks like a great play against LAR given how many points were put up in the BUF/LAR game last week.

submitted 73 days ago • 1 comment

NEW: 10 Things You Need to Know About Week 14 for Fantasy Football

submitted 80 days ago • 0 comments

Week 14's efficiency matchups. BUF has an 89th-percentile passing EPA matchup vs LAR's pass defense. BUF's been using 6 OL-men in the run game but also have passed out of it. Their 29 dropbacks with 6 OL-men is about 3x the rate of the team in 3rd. And they've earned 0.22 EPA per attempt.

submitted 80 days ago • 1 comment