stephenhoopes.bsky.social
Fantasy football writer and interception prop bets @4for4football.bsky.social. FSWA member. Data scientist. Goeh bherds 🦅
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Where are you at with the 1.02 in dynasty superflex drafts? Tet or one of the QBs?
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Love the Jauan Jennings call out.
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Thought the connection between deep targets for TEs and future season fantasy points was interesting.
bsky.app/profile/step...
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It's pretty ugly but here are just the 2023/2024 players on the graph.
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Intuitively, you have to have *some* deep targets to hit a ceiling. Among relevant TEs, that spells ceiling concern for David Njoku, Evan Engram, Pat Freiermuth, and Zach Ertz. And Jonnu Smith and Dallas Goedert are right on the edge.
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Glad I’m not alone on Tre Harris.
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“2 Bill, 2 Belichick” genuinely made me laugh out loud.
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Birds by a million.
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Holy shit, Harold Fannin.
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Eagles Superbowl Confirmed.
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And that reduction in TE volume is despite more of them on the field near the goal-line. We had a 5% spike in the use of 2+ TE sets in run plays at the goal-line in 2024. That obviously doesn't help us in fantasy. As someone who had a lot of Trey McBride last year, I'm personally blaming ARI.
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To be fair, it's been a while since we've seen him.
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Now if anyone could do it, it would be someone as talented as Saquon behind the Eagles’ OL. But we’ve had great RBs lead the league in 30+ yard runs in the past. And only one even hit half their number of those runs the following year. Just be careful expecting him to repeat this fully in 2025.
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An issue for Barkley is that 25% of his fantasy points (FPs) came on those runs. Only 8 of 81 RBs that generated 20%+ of their FPs from 30+ yard runs repeated it the next year. The typical RB’s FP share on those runs dropped to 7%. If Barkley is the typical back next season, we lose 60 FPs.
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Meanwhile, the RB number was the lowest since 2019. This is a reminder that 2024 was not destined to happen the way it did. If 2024 had the same number of lost IR weeks as 2023, that would be like these WRs never landing on IR: Rashee, Puka, Tank, Shaheed, Olave, Nico, Aiyuk, Kirk and Godwin.
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Would love to hear your thoughts on Tre Harris. My modeling really likes him but I know most film guys have their doubts.
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Because of that, we should be more willing to invest in free agent RBs with poor RYOE in 2024 that land on teams with good RYOE. The most obvious candidates going into 2025 are the Browns, Cowboys, and Chargers. I'm going to be more interested than usual in a FA RB that joins one of those teams.
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But its usefulness drops when a RB changes teams. With the exception of Saquon and Henry as huge outliers, there’s no trend here. You’re better off looking at how well the RB’s new team did last year in RYOE. So, RYOE isn’t doing a great job of baking in team context, particularly run blocking.
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As a starting point, the graph above shows year-over-year RYOE per attempt among RBs that stayed with the same NFL team. There’s a clear but relatively-weak trend. RYOE’s correlation with itself is 0.26. I’ve found it to be useful when predicting future-year fantasy points for late-round RBs.
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Appreciate it!
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Would love to be added!
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I put this together for Darnold (prior to the collapse) because he completed 55.8% of his 20+ air-yard throws. But guys like Matt Ryan in 2017 (52.6% to 27.4%) and Stroud this year (52.2% to 33.3%) regressed a ton the following year. Hopefully we get a big Caleb bounceback on pure variance?
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He's been pretty stable since 2020, barring a big drop in accuracy in 2022.
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He didn't have enough attempts to qualify, but on his sample, he'd be around Trevor Lawrence in the bottom-right. High aDoT, relatively-low accuracy.
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I had to exclude him because he instantly broke the graph lol.
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It's *always* a Bucky Irving week. TB needs a win to make the playoffs and they get a poor NO run defense. Bijan Robinson is in a similarly excellent spot with ATL needing a win to make the playoffs. And Brian Robinson also looks great, though WAS is locked into the 6 or 7 seed.
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PHI has an elite rushing matchup on paper, but with Hurts unlikely to play, we’ll have to temper expectations for Saquon as DAL stacks the box. TB, BUF, and DET all have 93rd-percentile or better matchups this week. Expect continued strong showings from Bucky Irving, James Cook, and Jahmyr Gibbs.
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James Conner is playing more on obvious pass downs with Demercado on IR. His touches haven't increased in these spots yet, but that should come. And TB is using more 13-personnel (1 RB, 3 TEs) in the run game. Those mostly went to White and Tucker last week, but Bucky Irving broke one for 54 yards.
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Please let it be the AJ Brown squeaky wheel game.
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Would love to know the success rate when they actually go for it in these obvious draw them offside attempts. Have to imagine it’s pretty good with the defense never expecting them to actually go.
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Brian Robinson looks like a must-start this week, with his NO matchup in the 98th percentile. He looked to be over his ankle injury prior to WAS's bye, and Ekeler remains on IR. And with Jonathon Brooks re-injuring his knee, Chuba Hubbard looks like an excellent play against DAL's run defense.
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PHI has 1 game this year with a positive PROE. Additionally, opposing teams run on the CAR's defense at one of the highest rates in the league. Now add in the fact that PHI has a 99th-percentile rushing EPA matchup. It's the 2nd-best matchup since 2014 among games this late in the season.