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supak.com
“We are living in an interminable succession of absurdities imposed by the myopic logic of short-term thinking.” —Jacques-Yves Cousteau Retired stage technician turned professional predictor of politics and climate on this pyretic planet. Supak.com
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WYOMING: “Thank you, Madam chairman.” “I prefer ‘Mister’ chairman.” “Well you all voted preferred pronouns cannot be compelled speech.”

submitted 1 day ago • 1420 comments

Time for the Arctic Sea Ice Minimum market, @kalshiofficial.bsky.social!

submitted 9 hours ago • 0 comments

Honestly think the only hope for humans is for intelligent people to take every last penny from the willfully ignorant by getting them to put their money where their mouths are in prediction markets.

submitted 10 hours ago • 0 comments

The measles prediction market @kalshiofficial.bsky.social says we get 567 cases of measles this year. The official count as of yesterday is 93. kalshi.com/markets/kxme...

submitted 11 hours ago • 0 comments

"...they believed that without doubt or question they had found the Truth. That was the end of the search. The man spent the rest of his life hunting up shingles wherewith to protect his Truth from the weather."--Mark Twain

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

persecution of Christians is alive in America, brought to you by the people constantly worrying about persecution of Christians in America

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

The only way to beat these fuckers into the ground is to win elections.

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Amazing how many union members voted to destroy their unions.

submitted 5 days ago • 1 comment

I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again: an administration (and its supporters) who believe that they are not limited by the rule of law have no moral or philosophical claim to the protection of the rule of law. “The law is whatever we say it is” warrants the same in response.

submitted 10 days ago • 146 comments

Increasingly hard to deny the theory that killing Americans is a feature, not a bug, for the Trumpers.

submitted 7 days ago • 0 comments

Largest TB outbreak in US history. Whooping cough at record numbers. Bird flu running rampant. Measles coming back. And he fires 1250 disease experts from the CDC. The only logical conclusion is that he's trying to kill Americans.

submitted 8 days ago • 0 comments

The @kalshiofficial.bsky.social market for the Arctic sea ice extent maximum is predicting 14.3 million km^2 and that's probably too high, but maxes are tricky; we can get a lot of ice fast if it gets cold enough in the right places. kalshi.com/markets/kxar...

submitted 8 days ago • 0 comments

West TX measles outbreak doubled overnight to 48 cases. Over 100 cases for 2025 is probably a bond: @kalshiofficial.bsky.social kalshi.com/markets/kxme...

submitted 8 days ago • 1 comment

Measles outbreak in West TX now up to 24 cases. The Measles market @kalshiofficial.bsky.social is predicting 241 cases (probably too low) for 2025. kalshi.com/markets/kxme...

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

I wonder how much Jr lost to me in the hottest year markets?

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

NCEI says 7% chance of 2025 being the hottest year on record. The market @kalshiofficial.bsky.social says 40%. kalshi.com/markets/kxgt...

submitted 10 days ago • 1 comment

Musk: "First of all, some of the things I say will be incorrect." Play along at home and try to guess which ones!

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

I strongly oppose term limits but I strongly support a mandatory retirement age.

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

Fun fact: it was people so confident in their intelligence that they wouldn't install a spell checker who got us into Iraq.

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

Even if you believe Vance's take on "ordo amoris" (which is idiotic, to be clear), his boss called half of America--me and my fellow Democrats--scum and vermin and he lied that we kill babies after they're born. They have nothing but hate for *anyone* outside of their immediate (rich) circle.

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

This would be an important point if facts mattered under Mob(ster) Rule.

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

any appearance of a connection is pure coincidence, needless to say

submitted 12 days ago • 9 comments

We also need to do our best to win elections. Even in deep red seats like the specials coming up: your small donations can make a big difference to candidates like @blakegendebien.bsky.social in #NY21.

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

Collins: "He cut what?" Aide: "All this vital research." [shows the Chair of the Appropriations Committee the list] Collins: "Well I'm.... flabbergasted! Take a letter--that'll make 'em think twice before they cut something else."

submitted 12 days ago • 0 comments

You can stop the government from printing the words "confirmation bias" but you'll never delete it from the prediction markets (thank goodness).

submitted 12 days ago • 1 comment