yarbatman.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

NEW: The actions of Trump and Vance in recent weeks highlight something under-appreciated. The American right is now ideologically closer to countries like Russia, Turkey and in some senses China, than to the rest of the west (even the conservative west). My column: www.ft.com/content/3046...

submitted 1 day ago • 123 comments

Une idée intéressante : Trump aurait abandonné l'idée de battre la Chine et la Russie et c'était à la place à assurer le statut américain en vassalisant ses alliés. Comme Poutine en fait.

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Absolutely killer analysis of the Trump tariffs

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

“In short, we’ve gone from Pax Americana to Tax Americana.” - @yarbatman.bsky.social Hanging that one another Dutch tile next to “beware the false realists” from @shashj.bsky.social @adamtooze.bsky.social

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

This is such a tought-provoking and good thread. Trumps policy may be built on the idea that the USA cannot compete with China and so it’s better to withdraw, and coerce remaining allies (Canada) into complete submission in a smaller yard. Very different from Biden.

submitted 2 days ago • 7 comments

I am old enough to remember when Victoria Nuland distributing sandwiches/cookies to protesters was for many a rock solid evidence of a US-based coup, an illegitimate interference that made any subsequent Ukrainian government an illegitimate puppet junta. Besides, Poroshenko and Tymoshenko? Really?

submitted 2 days ago • 7 comments

In the 1980s, US policymakers intervened to push Japanese automakers into JVs in the US market. Charles Yang makes a good case for using the same playbook with Chinese automakers. But will that help US automakers become “globally competitive?” Unlikely. foreignpolicy.com/2025/03/04/a...

submitted 3 days ago • 1 comment

Earlier this month, the Iranian and Tajik presidents met in Dushanbe, in the hopes of relaunching the partnership between the two countries. @sherkhashimov.bsky.social explores the reasons for the relaunch and the complicated history of Iran-Tajikistan ties. www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

submitted 9 days ago • 0 comments

Consider returning to Russia? Be prepared to pay for it. RU Avtovaz says Renault can buy back its majority stake if it pays $1.3 bn. Another bonanza for the Kremlin and Moscow is ready to leverage it: stricter demands for localization and tech transfers à la China. www.reuters.com/business/aut...

submitted 10 days ago • 3 comments

Tesla stock is down around 25% since the start of the year, whereas BYD has gained nearly 50%. If American institutional investors continue cycling out of Tesla and start cycling into BYD and other Chinese OEMs, how will that change the outlook for US-China relations?

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

1. Background to the epochal change in German and European politics after the election. Merz, the presumed next Chancellor has said that Europe is setting out to "achieve its independence from the US, step by step." @abenewman.bsky.social and I explain the background in our book, Underground Empire

submitted 13 days ago • 8 comments

China and the EU are the world's two major exporters of manufactured goods and the US is the key market. China's surplus with the US is larger than that of the EU. But in proportion to the size of its own manufacturing sector, the EU's surplus is now larger than that of China.

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

Once upon a time, the social democrats were the workers’ party in Germany. In the election today the extreme right AfD gained 3x more support from workers than the SPD.

submitted 13 days ago • 22 comments

“Any discussion of energy transition trends must therefore be visualised in the form of a triangle, ensuring that the competing and often contradictory goals of energy security, minimising climate impact, and ensuring energy affordability are in tension.” www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

Ukraine's telecom operators, including Kyivstar and Vodafone, primarily use 4G tech from Chinese suppliers, especially ZTE. Since the invasion, policymakers have worried about the risks posed by this equipment. But in the end, it was Starlink that was weaponized against Ukraine.

submitted 14 days ago • 0 comments

If "Zelenskyy refuses to sign the (minerals) deal, he was warned during the talks with Kellogg that Ukraine could lose access to Musk’s Starlink satellite internet system, which provides crucial connectivity to the Ukrainian military" www.theguardian.com/world/2025/f...

submitted 14 days ago • 14 comments

I've been playing around with various ways of contextualizing the size the China's manufactured goods surplus. That Setser piece triggered a lot of debate! One useful comparator might be the size of the manufacturing sector. Here's that analysis for China, Germany, and Japan.

submitted 15 days ago • 0 comments

This is a thought-provoking thread about the extent of China's "overcapacity." Two quibbles: 1. There was a lot of criticism of Germany's trade surpluses, and the wage constraints that drove them, in Europe during the debt crisis.

submitted 17 days ago • 1 comment

1. Brad Seter's new NYT op-ed argues that China presents a "danger the world economy" because of its enormous trade surplus in manufactured goods. I think he is identifying an important issue about imbalances. But his argument and this chart ⬇ may exaggerate the problem.

submitted 17 days ago • 1 comment

An important essay from my SAIS colleague @radchenko.bsky.social that offers a corrective to the view of a "no limits" Russia-China partnership. China and Russia have deepened economic ties. But they lack a true alliance. Putin is in many ways a liability. www.foreignaffairs.com/china/china-...

submitted 17 days ago • 0 comments

Piecing together all the ways in which we've self-sabotaged is taking time and effort, but the picture is coming together. Eventually it will dawn on people just how far we've fallen behind, and that we've only got ourselves to blame.

submitted 17 days ago • 2 comments

Rubio's recent comments suggest that the Trump admin thinks it can peel Russia away from China. But the Russian economy whiplashed under sanctions to total dependence on Chinese capital goods. In 2023, Russia imported 6x more capital goods from China than from the EU.

submitted 18 days ago • 0 comments

The striking thing about this chart isn't China's manufacturing dominance across key green technologies, but rather how far behind the US lags. The EU did better to protect its industrial base in the face of the first "China shock," which suggests domestic policies matter most.

submitted 18 days ago • 3 comments

Uncertainty around Trump's tariff plans could hurt just as much as tariffs • High level of unpredictability makes it virtually impossible for multinationals to prepare • Relocating production to US soil for just four years may not be a viable option, as investments in production plans take time

submitted 18 days ago • 0 comments

“Order books are empty, machines are idle, and companies are looking abroad to invest,” “I cannot remember such a bad mood among [German] industrial companies.” And no folks it is not just about energy or cutting red tape. www.ft.com/content/bdba...

submitted 18 days ago • 1 comment

An excellent newsletter from @kyleichan.bsky.social on the incredible aptitude of Chinese firms for assimilating Western technology before surpassing it. This process has been going on for nearly 40 years, yet folks expect export controls to bring it to a halt. www.high-capacity.com/p/chinas-fau...

submitted 19 days ago • 0 comments

Notable piece from @nahaltoosi.bsky.social about Rubio's lacking mandate at State. According to @chrismurphyct.bsky.social, "Rubio is not in charge." But the piece misses one aspect of the story. Rubio is weak because Blinken was weak. The office of lacks authority. www.politico.com/news/magazin...

submitted 19 days ago • 1 comment

If you're following me here (thank you, thank you), you should also consider following the new page for the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation. Our team is publishing some really unique research and analysis on economic development and economic diplomacy in West Asia! Link here: bsky.app/profile/bour...

submitted 19 days ago • 0 comments

Just finished reading this powerful book by my colleague @efinkel.bsky.social. The book is a staggering study of Russian aggression towards Ukraine. It is also a reminder that the only way to understand what is happening in the world is to make sure you have a firm grasp on history.

submitted 20 days ago • 2 comments

The second GCC-C5 summit will take place in May. Leaders in the Gulf and Central Asia are targeting more trade. But what trade corridor should they use? Nader Habibi assesses the three options: INSTC via Iran, DRP via Iraq, and the Trans-Afghan Corridor. www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

submitted 22 days ago • 0 comments