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yassa13.bsky.social
Finance, Investing, House & Techno, and Liverpool FC - 🇬🇧 in Marin County
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Ratio of consumer staples to discretionary (i.e. need to haves vs nice to haves) starting to look a little ugly and while some way off the precipitous declines of 2008/20/22, very much now in the same conversation as, or looking more troubling than, the growth scares of 2011/15/18.

It is really striking how he seems to believe that he’s this generation’s Winston Churchill when in fact he’s at risk of being our Neville Chamberlain.

This was a day before the recent top in yields, with the 10y yield falling by ~40bps since. Starting to feel like it’s time to lean in the other direction…

This, with a side of: U.S. TREASURY'S BESSENT: OUR STRONG DOLLAR POLICY DOESN'T MEAN OTHER COUNTRIES GET TO HAVE A WEAK CURRENCY POLICY -FBN

Didn’t have a chance to dig into the CPI data until this afternoon. Details of the report are quite a bit better than the headline and core monthly prints suggest. The proportion of CPI components inflating at a greater than 4% annualised rate has fallen to its lowest level in nearly 4 years…

Seems like people just want to be long stocks right now… have a hard time believing spooz will be as resilient if PPI is hot tomorrow, too, and if those PCE estimates start coming out in the 0.4% MoM range

core unrounded 0.446, supercore 0.757 MoM… inclined to think there is some seasonality here but these are also red hot prints and kinda surprised to see stocks holding up reasonably well here pre market

*TRUMP SET TO EASE ENFORCEMENT OF LAW THAT BANS OVERSEAS BRIBES What even is there to say about this one?

Nothing seems to matter but these comments strike me as *extremely* bearish Treasuries. We’ll see how this plays out…

Yeah but can you imagine how bad Kamala would have been for the Palestinians???

One of the spiciest FX opens of the last couple of years… between this and crypto, suspect we’re about to see equity futures gap down pretty hard at Globex open (probably 2%+ in ES). Not sure I would be fading the move, either…