yutikalcimite.bsky.social
Independent citizen interested in law and public policy
293 posts
32 followers
46 following
Getting Started
Active Commenter
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It's a sales tax. An enormous one.
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Everyone around him still clapped.
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There are products that we simply *can't* make. Coffee, bananas, etc. These are not exempted.
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It doesn't even come close to meeting the moment. Still, the fact that one Republican senator is filling the heat is a good sign.
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Hundred times this. We'll likely going to get shit cars in comparison due to the protectionist policies. Why try hard when you only have to compete with one or two others.
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We're of like minds. I'm calling it a feedback bubble. Unless/until the market responds to price them in the President will be emboldened to continue them. It is a vicious bubble and when it pops... oh man.
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My fear is that the market will continue to be willfully blind which will embolden Trump to continue the tariffs creating a greater and greater feedback bubble. When the market finally does blink ... that's it. Bubble bursts and Great Depression.
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The market has far from priced in this as a permanent tariff regime.
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We'd have hit the trips already. The market is no where near reflecting tariffs in place for six months or more.
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The global auto market is disappearing. Well, there will be two auto markets: the rest of the world and the US.
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I agree. Even if the Republican congress reversed this today they'd get shellacked in the midterms. Though won't reverse it today. Pressure will build on them as pain is felt by the country and tick tick tick until the midterms.
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Well, for everybody. Lots of pain is going to go around but that anger can and will be focused on those enabling this. The Republican Congress.
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Pressure. Daily market losses. Angry townhalls. Pain. I see lots and lots of pain in the future for Republicans.
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100% percent. Politics as hero worship is doing it wrong. Demand more of your leaders. Be stingy in praise until you see the effects.
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I'll submit the decline in the market today is almost all focused on that uncertainty. They have not yet priced in what happens if the tariffs truly stick for at least six months. If they had priced that in I believe we would have reached the automatic trips already.
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No one is predicting the end of the stock market. The question is what happens within the next six months.
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Sen. Grassley has seen enough. He's already defecting.
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You're making the case that the world won't end. But the question before the court is whether - IN NEXT SIX MONTHS - the market will be above a certain level. That is a very different question.
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A lot of it depends upon what happens to these tariffs over time. Are they completely revoked in weeks? Are they the exact same over months? Do they change willy nilly?
The uncertainty is a knock-on bad effect that all by itself will drag things lower.
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All of these tariffs are hiding behind a fig leaf of emergency. Privileged votes are coming in the House for Rs to ratify this fig leaf.
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They can't score it unless they determine this *emergency* is going to continue for ten years.
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Either he has to back down or congress has to revoke. This is *his* policy as much as anything he has ever done. He's advocated it his entire life consistently. He's immune to criminal prosecution and thinks he's won. His brush with almost being killed and messiah complex means I wouldn't bet on it.
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Within six months? If he keeps the current tariff policy for these next six months it might very well not…
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That’s assuming it gots back up.
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Not up to the moment.
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That’s part of the problem. If these tariffs had been ratified by congress elected by a well informed electorate that understood the bargain, then perhaps that would allow investors to build those factories.
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I don’t know enough about the current state of robotic factory markets, but my assumption is those factories are still highly specialized. Investing in a robotic factory to make Nike shoes when the tariffs are likely to be reversed at any moment?
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People gonna start smoking again?
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Bah. Can it reach negative? We’re still far from sober.
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We are hitting the trip in next few weeks for sure. I think today is a small blip. Reality still has to sink in. The amount of magical thinking and willful blindness just too high.
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The cult now has a membership fee that comes in the form of Great Depression level loss of treasure
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They are going to be annihilated in midterms. They should reverse them now as the pressure is just going to build.
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Tesla would need to switch to gasoline engines and only sell domestically to recover. Half the country will no longer buy them and the other half loathe electric vehicles. Tesla is cooked.
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Of course it will. They will be under incredible pressure to reverse as the pain is felt.
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Yes, but what do you think is going to happen as the pain and reverberations are felt. This is Great Depression level pain ahead. And it all can be reversed by the Congress.
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Yes, they would need veto proof majorities, but that doesn’t change anything about what Josh said.
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Congress can reverse this at any time. The Republican congress is going to be under tremendous pressure as the pain is felt.
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Not just lose majority. They are going to be annihilated. People did not sign up for this even though Trump said he’d do it. They thought it was bluster.
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The Republicans in congress are going to annihilated in the midterms and overwhelming pressure is going to be brought on congress to reverse this as the pain is felt.
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Why do I say undoubtedly? Because no one signed up for this. Yes, he has been saying it and people should have known but it was willful blindness.
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Name the investor who is going to have confidence to build up those robotics factories with the capital investment necessary for what is undoubtedly going to be a short term policy.
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There is no debate. They are stupid. Calling them stupid is not somehow playing into his hands in some invisible 10-d chess game.
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Republicans are going to be annihilated in the midterms. They are going to abandon ship. His tariff dementia is the equivalent of the Wizard of Oz pulling back the curtain himself.
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No doubt she is one that is privately telling Trump what a stable genius he is.