Reading Minneapolis DFL delegate counts it looks like Ward 10 may not be the progressive safe haven it’s been, at least as far as DFL endorsement. That would be a big big win for pro-Frey forces We❤️Mpls & All of Mpls. Someone talk me down from this position. - ThreadSky

dbrauer.net • 44 days ago

Reading Minneapolis DFL delegate counts it looks like Ward 10 may not be the progressive safe haven it’s been, at least as far as DFL endorsement. That would be a big big win for pro-Frey forces We❤️Mpls & All of Mpls. Someone talk me down from this position.

Comments

sethp.bsky.social•44 days ago

In 10-4 we had a majority of ward delegates for Millard and so many left before city subcaucusing Frey barely squeaked by with 1/6 delegates 🤷‍♂️

avocadoplex.bike•44 days ago

Serves them right, it was their own fault it dragged on, they took forever getting delegates picked for the ward convention 😑

devomase.bsky.social•44 days ago

Evergreen

nowcait.bsky.social•43 days ago

lol is that why it took so freaking long to get to the city convention part??? They did outnumber the Aisha crowd but surely there was room for most people who wanted to be a delegate to be one or be an alternate? We have so many seats for the ward convention

avocadoplex.bike•43 days ago

I mean, the other explanation is they were having a little martini break over there, but I'm pretty sure they just couldn't get their act together

nowcait.bsky.social•43 days ago

I didn’t realize til now you are the one of the bike people I was talking to while we waited for them move on to the city delegate part 😂

avocadoplex.bike•43 days ago

Hi! I should have been wearing my name tag with "@avocadoplex" on it 😆

acheck10.bsky.social•44 days ago

The “dont worry” case is that it’s easier for We ❤️ Mpls to shift caucus percentages because caucuses are a relatively small number of people. The marginal W10 general election voter is likely just as progressive.

reedeliot.bsky.social•44 days ago

I mean, another read of it is that a lot of folks who would otherwise vote extremely progressive do still struggle to make it to a caucus of indeterminate length on a Tuesday night

I work 11 hour days on Tues. I'm out of PTO. Both my roommates are in similar positions. Three progressives in W12.

reedeliot.bsky.social•44 days ago

A lot of very COVID cautious or otherwise immunocompromised folks are in a similar boat.

Percentage swings feel HUGE because of the relatively small number of participants. Organizing folks to go has a big impact.

I love caucuses but there are definitely drawbacks! I was sad to miss it.

dbrauer.net•44 days ago

This is absolutely a barrier. The 1 thing that existed was non-attendee forms, where you could get elected delegates. But only in-attendance people can vote on who gets in.

ericprindle.bsky.social•44 days ago

My precinct (10-5) almost forgot about non-attendee forms. We ended up giving a delegate slot to every in-person attendee who wanted one and agreeing to fill the remaining spots with non-attendees, by lot if needed. So I have no idea what the actual makeup of our delegation is.

ericprindle.bsky.social•44 days ago

I wonder how many other caucuses were in the same boat – wanting to move on and not really thinking about whether there were enough non-attendee forms to force subcaucuses. I assumed everyone would hate me if I tried to force the issue.

reedeliot.bsky.social•44 days ago

That last piece is most interesting to me especially in Minnesota, haha

ericprindle.bsky.social•44 days ago

It's an interesting dynamic. The poor guy in our caucus who got stuck trying to read the anti-DSA resolution was super sheepish about it.

smcgee.bsky.social•44 days ago

That’s definitely what happened at ours.

ericprindle.bsky.social•44 days ago

Did anyone even bring up what to do with the non-attendees who had nominated themselves?

reedeliot.bsky.social•44 days ago

Yes exactly. Couple that with overwhelm and anxiety and and and

I totally get your fears. I'm afraid too. But I think it's just a call to organize like hell, like I suppose fuckin everything is nowadays.

Lots of tired folks will sit an election out. We gotta hit the pavement.

reedeliot.bsky.social•44 days ago

Maybe this will be motivating? Haha...

Folks who feel comfortable that their fav progressive will keep winning gotta start talking to their neighbors.

I didn't caucus but I've already fucking started chatting with folks on my block. ♥️

dexanderson.com•44 days ago

I was disappointed in the amount of Lydia people in my precinct. There was a clear push from the We Love Mpls people to turn people out at the caucus.

jasoncomix.bsky.social•44 days ago

Frey did poorly, especially compared to Fateh in 10-1. There was a “Not Frey, Uncommitted, Labor” subcaucus that did well. Millard did well at like 35-26 vs Aisha, but there were also subs that peeled off delegates that will probably break Chughtai (like @amityf.bsky.social’s Connected City caucus).

dbrauer.net•44 days ago

Would argue mayor wasn’t the game. They know they won’t be endorsed. They won what they came for?

ericprindle.bsky.social•44 days ago

This is probably part of it, but my sense is that a lot of these bike/bus/bumpout haters blame Frey too. I've heard people talk about how Frey is building bike lanes for all his fit-white-dude bike buddies. (Obviously these people have never had a fit white dude lecture them on vehicular cycling.)

dbrauer.net•44 days ago

But good point on connected city. Have to game those out, thanks!

kedrickillian.bsky.social•44 days ago

W10 has often been tight in the Wedge with Whitter running up a huge total for the more lefty candidate. So the case would be one or two precincts with strong support overwhelming the tighter spots. And yes perhaps some delegates were in unnamed sub caucuses.

mattylangmsp.bsky.social•44 days ago

Big if true. End of an era. Sadly.

carlyrenae.bsky.social•44 days ago

The Lydia supporters were very well organized. They wore shirts, worked the crowd, etc.

dreams44.bsky.social•44 days ago

I live in 10-5 and Lydia Aisha split the delegates

christym.bsky.social•44 days ago

We ❤️ Mpls had a huge showing in 7, and my theory is that they did a better job than I hoped of rousing “but uptown is dying” folks because of their “save uptown” meetings with the business association the last two weekends.

kinoventura.bsky.social•44 days ago

I listened to some of the audio from the most recent one and it's parts baffling and infuriating. They are hammering the message that the council and definitely not commercial property owners or the mayor bear responsibility for vacant storefronts.

christym.bsky.social•44 days ago

I don’t think caucus turnout represents either ward for so many reasons - the process still favors those who have the time and resources to waste an evening.

What I do think is that uptown wards are gonna be messy as fuck this year.

dbrauer.net•44 days ago

Yeah, I’d say that effort did well in their targeted wards, though haven’t heard about 5. Joe Rad is good at what he does, even though I really disagree with his candidates.

jskogerboe.bsky.social•43 days ago

I don't think any of the precincts in Ward 5 filled their Ward slots, so it'd be tough to say.

kingkongmpls.bsky.social•44 days ago

I don’t live in Ward 10, but all I really know about your council member is that she was uncommitted to stopping Trump and she insists that reporters address her as “Vice President,” not just council member. I’m thinking that’s a bad sign.

farhofarho.bsky.social•43 days ago

Well you should learn more about her, then.

kingkongmpls.bsky.social•41 days ago

Would love to read a rundown of her accomplishments, have looked at her website but didn’t see much that stuck with me.

isibb.bsky.social•43 days ago

I’m on everyone’s email list/newsletter. From afar, the Frey people have made the caucuses practically the only thing they talk about. They’ve been framing it as more important than the actual election. I’ve not seen similar urgency placed on it from the other side.

dbrauer.net•43 days ago

Frey had to juice a flaccid base on it. I think mayoral money trouble kept Koski & Davis from same. Fateh was all-out. Attendance was up from both sides. Frey had more room to grow. Smart of them to use some of their megabucks to do it. Unlikely to translate at mayoral level but will at ward level.

streitzmary.bsky.social•43 days ago

Three mayoral candidates came in person to my caucus (13-11, meeting jointly with 13-12): Frey, Davis, and Jazz (who lives in the ward). I am not sure how they can get to very many in person. Delegates to city convention from 13-11: Frey 6, Uncommitted 4.

isibb.bsky.social•43 days ago

It seems like their take is: council elections will be decided at convention, mayor, as always, decided on Election Day.

dbrauer.net•43 days ago

Basically, their strategy is to say “endorsement is tantamount to election for the lefties, so let’s block that or maybe win it. Then our money can roam unfettered.” They’re not wrong. Lefties rely on traditional networks/organizing that have done well. They’ve tried to raise more $ but it’s hard.

kanadgupta.com•44 days ago

here's how i'd classify ~40% of the lydia supporters in 10-7:
- under 35
- first-time caucus goers
- led to believe that aisha is the status quo candidate
- no opinions on the aisha other than some lydia talking points (see quote below)

a single phone call from aisha's campaign could sway them imo

dexanderson.com•44 days ago

Yeah and the other 60% were old cishet white people, one of whom I have encountered before and she is ... well, she put forward a resolution last year that Israel has a right to defend itself.

kanadgupta.com•44 days ago

totally, i'm sure a lot of lydia's older supporters are proudly anti-progressive and anti-aisha. i was just shocked by the number of young folks **in lydia t-shirts** that had done so little homework.

dexanderson.com•44 days ago

Yeaaaaah that was disappointing.

(It was nice to meet you, by the way! Thank you again for all the help!)

kanadgupta.com•44 days ago

likewise, same to you!

wolfman2000.bsky.social•43 days ago

First time caucus goer, and I went with Aisha myself. So at least I'm not a part of the 40%.

dbrauer.net•44 days ago

Lack of response can kill any candidate, but especially a progressive.

kanadgupta.com•43 days ago

totally, and i'm not ruling out the possibility that these newcomers are simply recycling a bad faith talking point they received from someone else (e.g., the folks @taylr.bsky.social mentions below)

dbrauer.net•43 days ago

That’s fair but I will also say I underestimated non-responsiveness when judging some previous losses, and this came not from craven All of Mpls types but sincere middle-of-the-road or center-left folks who just wanted basic stuff. I don’t know for sure in this case but hearing similar chatter.

ajm6792.bsky.social•43 days ago

It probably takes Goodman levels of ego to respond “you’re wrong” to very dumb complaint, but it’s probably strategic

dexanderson.com•43 days ago

To be clear, the guy was talking about crime and policing, which are strong mayor duties. Aisha's office HAS been good in responding to specific crimes and requests for help, in my experience. I reported antisemitic graffiti in the area and they connected me with the cops investigating it.

dbrauer.net•43 days ago

Thanks, yeah, I see @taylr.bsky.social was responding to a bro complaint; I’m just relaying what (a few!) non-bropeople have relayed to me back-channel. My antenna are heightened because of earlier losses. I don’t want to belabor because not sure it’s true. Thanks for your report/insight.

jchristmpls.bsky.social•43 days ago

Aisha did pretty well in South Wedge W10P2 (30 Aisha; 10 Millard; 3 Uncommitted).

I think it will come down to how well she did in the Whittier precincts

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