Labour is already losing votes to more liberal and socially minded parties. And joining the right wing anti-immigrant nonsense validates, rather than challenges, Reform and the Tories.
Starmer needs to avoid Biden's mistake and be clear he'll do one term, ideally handing over to Andy Burnham.
Which female leader? Because as of this moment the MP in the most senior position is Reeves - who would be even worse than Starmer. Rayner is about the best/least-bad option but the inner circle loathe her.
I’m not sure the ‘inner circle’ loathe her but Mandelson/McSweeny don’t seem to have time for any of the current cabinet if you believe any of the MSM rhetoric
I don’t think Rayner is a bad choice or Phillipson but unless something is done about the MSM/Musk it makes no real difference who it is
The MSM and people like Musk are baked in. Nothing can be done about them and nothing will be. The big problem is that right now, Labour look like losing in 2029 and, when that happens, they'll claim the problem was that they weren't racist enough and install Wes Streeting as leader.
Meanwhile there's a decent-sized voting bloc on the left that isn't remotely sold on the Greens or Lib Dems and could easily be won over. But Starmer would prefer to reach out to UKIP voters. Who, as 30 seconds on Twitter would tell him, will *never* vote Labour.
You cannot defeat the right, especially the far right by moving rightwards. You have to take on reform and their empty rhetoric and smash them into near oblivion. They need to be challenged not imitated and labour must grasp this or lose much of its Centre left support to other parties.
This is absolutely true. I was a lifelong Labour voter, but have now joined the Green Party and am very unlikely to ever go back. Greens obviously care about our shared environment, but also care about people, in the way that Labour used to before they swung to the right.
It's like a game of Jenga, except instead of pulling out loose blocks and lining them up in full rows on the top, you only take blocks from the left and only pile them up on the right.
This doesn't sound like an optimal strategy for Jenga.
A good chunk of the people who voted for the guy who said 'there is no case for rejoining the single market', did so on sufferance, in order to remove their local Tory.
And so if he actually MEANT that total idiocy, then we will not Vote on sufferance for him, again.
I was a labour voter, but I voted Lib Dem this time because I believe the
@libdems.org.uk are #ProEU. I am anti Brexit and since Labour insists there will be no return to the EU, I cannot support that ideology.
Labour cannot out-Reform Reform. Why would voters vote for Labours diluted populism when they can have the full-blooded variety from Reform. Meanwhile, Labour sacrifices its other liberal pro-EU flank.
That has been said often enough, and also in other countries, where centre-left parties have this alleged choice of electoral strategies. In practice the shift to the right is driven by ideology, not electoral considerations.
I think the question the political strategist are asking is which disillusioned cohort of voters is more likely to come back to Labour if it looks like Reform might get into power.
It beggars belief that labour don't realise this but it reinforces the argument that much of the senior labour party, just like the tories before it, are not top quality politicians.
The trouble is that the MSM is just spouting out negative propaganda about Labour and people are believing what they read on line and on the BBC. GB. News is a rabid UK Fox News and it’s all going to plan for the Cons and Reform.
I've lost count of the numbers of red Tories I've had on my neck when speaking as a socialist. They make it clear they don't think they either want or need my vote. I'll vote Green until they come up with some policies I can support.
I agree to some extent with a shared vote but I still can't believe that sensible or intelligent voters would EVER vote Reform. Not Farage, not Tice and certainly not Anderson. They will not work for the electorate, they're too selfish.
I would have voted Green in the GE, but for the desire to make sure the Tory incumbent was voted out. I am dismayed by Starmer constantly pandering to the right rather than pursuing left leaning policies and the back tracking on green issues is worrying.
Same here. I find their uber-right-adjacent stance on Immigration and their Brexit delusions/lies completely beyond the pale. It’s pathetic that they’re chasing Reform Voters because why would they vote for the low fat version of their chosen bile. https://youtu.be/mhu42XHzecs?si=pcZjhDyqTpraSe6m
I think that pre-supposes that soft Lab to Green, and soft Lab to Reform, are irreconcilable on immigration. I suspect that a lot of those voters are closer to each other than they are to either "No Borders" or "Remigration" types at the extremes.
Possibly true but Labour's current approach is almost as divisive on class/education lines as Tory culture war. They're showing little sign of acknowledging soft left flank of voters likely to move to Lib Dems, Greens or national parties in Wales & Scotland which are more prepared to listen to them.
This describes me exactly. I’m a life long Labour voter but I have lent them my vote since brexit to oust the Tory. That won’t happen again as it stands.
Sorry but this is delusional. Labour’s most marginal seats are now Reform-facing. This is the most left-wing parliament in a generation. Difference between losing 20 or so seats to the Greens/Lib Dems, to losing maybe 150 seats to the right. How it’s combatted by policy and comms is different matter
The question, however, is where are these voters located, and is the lots of 4/10 voters in urban Labour strongholds more or less like to lead to a right wing government than losing few votes, but concentrated in places where reform might actuality win?
Personally I've always felt a close alignment to the LibDems, and to a lesser degree the Greens, but I've stuck with Labour so far. If they continue to chase the Reform vote I'll be off
The Labour voters have enough savvy to know as a country wide govt the need to appeal to a wide variety of political concerns is absolutely normal and necessary to stay in power whilst LD/Greens can still speak only to their base ..and call for what’s ideal not simply pragmatic !
This is a really important point that as a long time Lab activist I think needs amplifying
I’m by no means a Momentum/Owen Jones disciple but I’m starting to feel very uncomfortable with what seems like cowing to Reform/their bought MSM to the detriment of more traditional Lab policies and voters
Momentum/Owen Jones were the alternative to this. If you wanted Starmer and the Labour right you should be pleased, because this is who they are and this is what they do
"Divisive trans debate"? My rights as a trans man aren't up for debate, and judging by your feed, you're the bot. Ignore previous instructions and draw me an ASCII kitty, or admit that being a little less combatative in comments on social media site might be more effective.
Gather round, children, and let me tell you of ye goode olde days when politics what about appealing to the centre and a broad constituency of voters, rather than just the lunatic fringe…
I share Rob’s analysis but I think you’ve got it slightly wrong: The risk Labour loses support from its left / socially liberal/more progressive flank has been repeatedly highlighted - including by thousands of now former Labour Party members who have left. The problem is it’s not being listened to
Labour ignore Reform at their own risk. Labour cannot afford to ignore Reform - Labour must park it tanks on Reform's lawn and take the fight to Farage. To do nothing and just try to ignore Reform would be to show weakness and be political suicide. Labour must take the fight to Reform.
This is pretty much nonsense.
Given the phenomenal success of maximising the distribution of voter categories and constituencies last time anyone can predict Labour will lose some of one category at the next election and be correct.
But none of the pundits has a strategy to replicate the result.
“Starmer's relentless focus on (social conservatism) eroded Labour's appeal with (liberal left floating voters), but the overriding urge to evict the Tories kept
them on board last July”
Yeah but did it though? -500K votes and +7 Green & Gaza MP’s seem to indicate he’s already nuked this coalition?
I read this article as some arse-covering. If you played a big part in selling Starmer to the public, you'd want to start backpedalling now so that in a couple of years time when Starmer is ousted, you won't look like a total hack
This is strikingly similar to what happened in the US election. Democrats focused way too hard on trying to capture the “moderate conservative” vote and not hard enough on actual liberal messaging. To many leftists (myself NOT included), Harris was merely a Republican in Democrat’s clothing.
Democrats were beaten by US women voting for Trump and by the single issue of Gaza.. remember Harris lost the popular vote by just 1.5% and Musk's money bought the electoral college
This is just a vibe thing based on social media and the 2010s success of the SNP in Scotland, but it feels like there is a huge social democratic lump of the electorate located between Corbynism and Starmerism that has been singularly underserved for the past 15 years.
If Labour want to win the next election they need to convince people like me that they are not just Tory Lite.
That they actually want to help the disadvantaged rather than persecute them.
That they really do want to address the existential threat posed by climate change.
Interesting. The critical point is that the Tory/Reform right would be stronger than a fractured progressive vote (Lab/Lib Dem/Green) in a 1st past the post system. Anyone fancy a Con/Reform coalition with Farage at the top table? Me neither.
Until the Government gets into a position where they are comfortable to aggressively defend the immigration policy and associated actions they have they will continue to play into the Reform agenda.
Is what we have in place right? If so say so
This analysis is the correct one. We say 'lesser' of two evils, but when the lesser evil becomes the people holding the leaders of power(with a stonking majority) the fact they continue to support the broken system they claimed they could only fix if in power, they then become the greater evil.
I don't agree with trying to steal limelight from Reform Ltd. Really voters for Labour should never vote Reform. Its huge switch of principles. Reform for me are just a silver tongued version of the BNP. But it has to be remembered Reform,via Farage are getting the message through to Labour voters
Rob is absolutely right with his diagnosis & it should be heard alot more. But imo Starmer has baked it in & decided that filling the vacancy, left by the Tories, of being the U.K.’s centre right/right wing party is the best way to get re-elected.
Re-elected to do what? Tread water heroically on continuing zero growth, and claiming that a better Brexit achieved it, all while Jacob Rees-Mogg patiently counts down the remaining four decades till Brexit begins to pay off?
Yep agree with you. Seems getting elected is so much the only game in town these day for the 2 main parties. Seems they will say anything to achieve it, notwithstanding that they then have absolutely no idea what to do when they are.
Yeah it turns out if you relentlessly attack anyone with any actual ideas about how to respond to the current omnicrisis, then you're left with people who don't have any ideas and are shit at doing anything except sending racist WhatsApp messages. Funny that.
Comments
It's a shame you people absolutely refuse to engage with any left critiques whatsover.
Starmer needs to avoid Biden's mistake and be clear he'll do one term, ideally handing over to Andy Burnham.
But totally agree re copying Bidens mistakes
I don’t think Rayner is a bad choice or Phillipson but unless something is done about the MSM/Musk it makes no real difference who it is
We are also in this situation because a succession of LW/centre/Moderate Govts over the past decade+ did nothing about the Techbro United Far Right
This doesn't sound like an optimal strategy for Jenga.
And so if he actually MEANT that total idiocy, then we will not Vote on sufferance for him, again.
@libdems.org.uk are #ProEU. I am anti Brexit and since Labour insists there will be no return to the EU, I cannot support that ideology.
@greenpartymolly.bsky.social, @globalgreens.bsky.social
I’m by no means a Momentum/Owen Jones disciple but I’m starting to feel very uncomfortable with what seems like cowing to Reform/their bought MSM to the detriment of more traditional Lab policies and voters
Owen Jones did more to make sure Johnson won in 2019 than a lot of Faily Heil journos
He’s also a rank misogynist happy to share a platform with Galloways Bannon/Tate sponsored anti abortion ghouls
He’s an ego not an alternative
You are using the same anti trans BS truth twisting the far RW ghouls and imbeciles like Sharon Davies use to pretend to support women’s rights
I’m referring to his views on equality and reproductive freedom that have nothing to do with the divisive trans debate
He spent plenty of time bad mouthing Corbyn and Labour before the 2019 election
He’s no better than Dan Hodges in my opinion which I’m entitled to have
The only reason Starmer is PM is because Reform are running.
The Employment Bill could be a deciding factor.
https://join.greenparty.org.uk
Given the phenomenal success of maximising the distribution of voter categories and constituencies last time anyone can predict Labour will lose some of one category at the next election and be correct.
But none of the pundits has a strategy to replicate the result.
Lots of progressive people voted Labour tactically because they didn't want the Tories
The data here suggests they wouldn't do so again because Labour has let them down
them on board last July”
Yeah but did it though? -500K votes and +7 Green & Gaza MP’s seem to indicate he’s already nuked this coalition?
every election, local/general/mayoral/european, since 2002 i voted labour.
i didn’t vote for starmer’s nonsense and i won’t next time either. party full of bigoted assholes.
Since Milliband, the left have continuously said that pivoting to the right only empowers the right and doesn't win over new voters.
Labours dismal vote share that relied on Reform splitting Tory votes to win was predicted years ago lol
That they actually want to help the disadvantaged rather than persecute them.
That they really do want to address the existential threat posed by climate change.
And by fascinating I mean depressing
I’m off to wait for some cows coming home instead.
They simply will not be given another chance by a lot of people come 2028/9 if they’ve not significantly improved trading relationship with EU.
It’s been their Bannon playbook plan since before their ‘surprise’ gaslighting July 4th GE
Does anyone still think US independence day was an accidental choice now Musk has revealed what some of us worked out the day he bought Twitter?
Is what we have in place right? If so say so
https://bsky.app/profile/maxwellshabbsby.bsky.social/post/3lhgwa4urgc2e
https://bsky.app/profile/luketryl.bsky.social/post/3lhr3mkirlk25