ISC census shows a drop of 2.4% in pupil numbers. The Times tries to hype this up but the ISC previous claimed numbers would drop by 25%. My estimate was 3-5% by next year. www.thetimes.com/article/893e... - ThreadSky

samfr.bsky.social • 10 hours ago

ISC census shows a drop of 2.4% in pupil numbers. The Times tries to hype this up but the ISC previous claimed numbers would drop by 25%.

My estimate was 3-5% by next year.

https://www.thetimes.com/article/893e846d-bb07-40d2-af94-99bd74158eed?shareToken=923b86d5af47b801256725a817eda036

Comments

andymoz78.bsky.social•2 hours ago

What’s the fall in state sector school rolls? If I recall correctly it was forecast to start falling in 2025 in any case.

bikeymcbikeface.bsky.social•10 hours ago

Close all private schools. State schools need to be fully funded.

samfr.bsky.social•10 hours ago

This is off the back of 22% average fee increases - which are higher than I expected (in part because of national insurance increases). Demand proving very inelastic as expected.

jaitalking.bsky.social•10 hours ago

Is it possible that there may be a longer term effect of less people starting their children in private schools? They are probably less likely to pull children out that are already there, but maybe less likely to enter new children into private school?

juneussell.bsky.social•3 minutes ago

Fees have been going up for a long time. Elasticity of demand. As Sam says. There’ll always be people willing to pay for the benefit of sending their kids to schools that people are willing to pay for.

zzypt.bsky.social•9 hours ago

The whole sector will be aware that the longer term impact will be parents of younger kids not starting in Private Schools, so there will be continued decline in numbers, but that’s partially the point of the policy.

jimob1.bsky.social•8 hours ago

Had to do a double take as I read the top line.

But on a serious note, as private education is simply about buying privilege, meh.

davidjwbailey.bsky.social•10 hours ago

Private education is about keeping rich kids away from poor kids to entrench wealth based privileges.

Just ask Kate Middleton’s mum.

gsds3.bsky.social•10 hours ago

I didn’t know there were so many dwarfs at independent schools

oldtrotter.bsky.social•10 hours ago

Times going big on this yesterday as well. The subject of the main leader.

rdrberry.bsky.social•9 hours ago

Demographic dip means state primary capacity is neatly in line there ...

rdrberry.bsky.social•7 hours ago

And the wider benefits to society of integration and cohesion might be worth a cheer.
Or isn't cohesion and class the thing ..

olliestanley.bsky.social•6 hours ago

We aren't nearly at the steady state rate yet. If it's already down 2.4% now you would expect it to be >5%, maybe approaching double figures, relative to past trend, by the time we reach steady state. Agree 25% was a bit of a silly overestimate though

johnmcminn.bsky.social•10 hours ago

Good! One step closer to closing them all down and making education more equal and thus our society fairer. Getting rid of the private school mentality from our public institutions would be a very good thing.

adayoff.bsky.social•8 hours ago

Whilst we're at it could we also get rid of grammar and faith schools

johnmcminn.bsky.social•6 hours ago

Oh yes please. That was the worst failing of the Blair Government, allowing the extension of faith schools, the very place where sectarianism begins!

record-factory.bsky.social•9 hours ago

I am very relaxed about the VAT change but this seems like a very illiberal and extreme position.

md700a.bsky.social•9 hours ago

It is, but I find myself agreeing with John. It’s one of my most radical views in fact. I’d liked to have seen them remove charitable status completely. The entrenched privilege this system creates does nothing to make the UK a better place.

record-factory.bsky.social•9 hours ago

Probably not a fight Labour are likely to pick I suspect.

johnmcminn.bsky.social•9 hours ago

No but when Blair was in they sought to make state ed so good that people didn't feel the need to go private and it did reduce numbers. Good state ed would make it wither on the vine and only those seeking social cachet would be left using it.

record-factory.bsky.social•9 hours ago

That sounds like a much more sensible approach.

ben63.bsky.social•9 hours ago

I agree it is people who say they want a meritocracy but was to cheat it for their children. It ingrains privileged as does massive inherited wealth.

johnmcminn.bsky.social•9 hours ago

I agree its quite a strong position but Finland did it and look at their Ed system. Sometimes for the good of society you have to take a strong position. I suspect there would be majority support for it as most people 93% in fact think it highly unfair unequal and giving unfair advantage to wealthy.

yellsonpolitics.bsky.social•8 hours ago

I think it's one of those policies that seem impossible before you do it and shortly afterwards it seems mad it was ever debatable (smoking in pubs, seatbelts in cars). The idea that the sufficiently wealthy can buy lifelong membership of a privileged class is bonkers.

mariosrichards.bsky.social•9 hours ago

> this seems like a very illiberal and extreme position

Yes - but what provisions for children aren't? Society *legally imposes* specific forms of education of children - among a very long list of other requirements - until 18.

That is obviously historically extreme and unarguably illiberal.

record-factory.bsky.social•9 hours ago

I don't know I just don't think Labour are going to ban and shut down all private schools across the country.

mariosrichards.bsky.social•9 hours ago

Well, they wouldn't shut down - remember, they're strictly speaking public charities not private companies - nationalising them would just mean a change in governance and a change in which students get to go.

mariosrichards.bsky.social•9 hours ago

But yes, it would be a 'bold step' even though the results have been very positive where other European states have done this.

mariosrichards.bsky.social•9 hours ago

Assuming you don't resile from that, what would be the point of saying "the state requires you receive a stipulated education for 18 years under threat of prosecution ...

mariosrichards.bsky.social•9 hours ago

... but we're not bothered if you want to be homeschooled by insane Americans teaching you the virtue of the Confederacy and White Christ / in a small monied bubble consciously opposing efforts to integrate society?

alastairmeeks.bsky.social•10 hours ago

I'm not hardline on discontinuous charts but this one is exceptionally misleading.

At some point The Times will need to consider how much they're damaging their own credibility by writing scare stories like this to undermine a very popular policy that has worked in its own terms.

clairebradley.bsky.social•9 hours ago

The Times has given up all pretence of being a credible paper. I never bother read their stuff as I don't trust the accuracy of their reporting.

tzma.bsky.social•8 hours ago

The Sunday Times. The Times is still credible.

They share a website.

martinavatar.bsky.social•8 hours ago

This whole topic just goes to show the size of the public school bubble the journalists/management of The Times/Sunday Times live within.

adrianmcmenamin.bsky.social•7 hours ago

Is it? They had a leader yesterday whining about Labour ministers dismissing the ISC’s scare stories which were previously given star billing in the same paper

tzma.bsky.social•5 hours ago

I missed that but also I am interested what time it was published. Could it be that the Saturday afternoon website is front running Sunday Times articles.

This was the leader page in print… I note they are also against VAT on private schools but I guess that plays well with readership.

yatesyman.bsky.social•3 hours ago

I wouldn't fixate on one leader – the daily paper has run loads of stuff opposing this policy.

alastairmeeks.bsky.social•3 hours ago

I would love to know how they justify the line: "Families, many on relatively modest household incomes".

timeforheroes.bsky.social•9 hours ago

So that's 20 kids per constituency extra from the ages of 4-18? This was supposed to "collapse" the school system?

oldhamletsghost.bsky.social•10 hours ago

Are we supposed to be bothered?

annaclarke.bsky.social•10 hours ago

Would be reason to be bothered if they numbers fall so much that the policy costs money instead of raising money - but you'd need about 30% fall in pupil numbers for that to happen.

yellsonpolitics.bsky.social•8 hours ago

Thing is, a lot of school fees are paying for theatres and swimming pools and the rest of it - so while there's likely a shock due to VAT introduction, fees would come down pretty rapidly if there was a real prospect of sector numbers dwindling that much.

ironeconomist.bsky.social•10 hours ago

I think it’s very early for Sam to be declaring victory given surely most moves will happen over the summer. Parents will go to great lengths to avoid moving kids mid year. And school moves may need house moves so will take several years to reach a new equilibrium.

ironeconomist.bsky.social•10 hours ago

Don’t think anyone really knows how this will shake out in the long run because lots of parents with a relatively small number of school years left will grit and bear it when they would not have put their kids in at the higher price point in the beginning.

annaclarke.bsky.social•10 hours ago

Agree, I'd expect it to be quite a slow burn impact - few parents are likely to move children part way through a school. Impact will be via though who don't go private in the first place.

annaclarke.bsky.social•9 hours ago

But private schools won't just sit by and watch demand collapse - they'll respond by putting their fees down and trimming costs if necessary - there's a massive margin between what they spend and what state schools do, so should still be able to make a decent offer to parents.

samfr.bsky.social•9 hours ago

Need to see the census detail but there can't have been that big a drop off in September starters given the overall fall.

ironeconomist.bsky.social•10 hours ago

(Also I don’t think you necessarily need 30% to move to have a large negative impact. school economics have relatively high fixed costs so you might well see school closures in some areas. Some schools will struggle to adjust to even a 10% fall in numbers.)

dburx.bsky.social•9 hours ago

There are, of course, a lot less children, for all schools. That itself will change the sector; plus poor cost control in it was already causing issues.
Mgmt and strategy failure will be a greater cause of closures than VAT.

gcjea.bsky.social•9 hours ago

Any regional trends/variations?

adrianmcmenamin.bsky.social•7 hours ago

You can roughly ascribe half of that fall to demographics assuming private school numbers track the overall cohort.

newross.bsky.social•9 hours ago

Important to remember benefits of school fees. Nearly 42% of independent schools candidates got 25% more time at A levels last year. Uni fees will be lower. And if you cover their uni fees and maintenance, your children won't pay 9% graduate tax.

jim.londoncentric.media•10 hours ago

Also as the copy is pretty clear on but the headline isn’t, this is more about people going “nah I ain’t paying for that” at the start of an education rather than an exodus?

jeremypattison.bsky.social•10 hours ago

The decline in the population of 4-18 yos is neatly sidestepped

amg903.bsky.social•9 hours ago

And foreigners sending their kids to UK schools.. The present anti immigrant rhetoric in UK might be an important factor also

jascarb.bsky.social•10 hours ago

But when we see film of these schools they never show the dwarves. Bet they've got special dwarf cupboards.

captaink77.bsky.social•7 hours ago

It’s also a Dear Leader’s stag do-sized red flag that the ISC hasn’t published their 2025 census report on their own website yet

lucyabbotts.bsky.social•9 hours ago

There must be a word for obsessing over a policy which impacts 7% of the school-age population and simultaneously screeching that it’s a gateway drug which will upend society. Gas-something…

winter02.bsky.social•10 hours ago

State schools have been dealing with huge reductions in funding for years. They can’t just put up fees. Maybe the private schools can ask them for advice?

Comments

Posting Rules

Reply