Strong public support for winter fuel allowance u-turn. Westminster usually overestimates the negative impact of u-turns vs the political benefit. - ThreadSky

samfr.bsky.social • 5 days ago

Strong public support for winter fuel allowance u-turn.

Westminster usually overestimates the negative impact of u-turns vs the political benefit.

Comments

andymoz78.bsky.social•5 days ago

Vested interests and ‘benefit scroungers’ - I’d have a lot more sympathy if there was some realism. Working age benefit cuts have forced millions into poverty, especially those with kids. Universal payments to the segment of society that is most wealthy is obscene.

davidwgw.bsky.social•5 days ago

I wouldn’t call it a u-turn. That would mean the WFA was being restored after it had been abolished.
It was never abolished. This proposal just changes the qualification threshold.

jameswillby.bsky.social•5 days ago

It shows the government is listening.

immunopolitics.bsky.social•5 days ago

To stupid demands.

robgomm.bsky.social•5 days ago

Also again showing the left wing economic views of Reform voters, which is why Farage is moderating his language despite the party in reality being a Truss-esque disaster waiting to happen.

robgomm.bsky.social•5 days ago

Not sure what it says about Tories other than they are toast.

phillipwatson.bsky.social•5 days ago

Admitting a mistake is usually looked at positively by voters as long as you don’t t make a habit of it like Major did then it’s seen as lack of direction and weakness.

samfr.bsky.social•5 days ago

(Doesn't mean it's the right policy - not that we know what the policy is yet...but I don't think it will do any political damage.)

hitchikerspie.bsky.social•5 days ago

How are we ever going to cut the triple lock if we can't even slightly lower the WFA.

The whole country is just propping up unaffordable policies for the elderly who remain our richest cohort.

braunton-mark.bsky.social•5 days ago

Get younger people to vote.
Not sure how.
We have a massive housing crisis down here in Devon and the younger population,disproportionately affected, didn’t vote in District elections that could have delivered change, despite a strong campaign to get them to.
Politicians favour those who vote.

hitchikerspie.bsky.social•5 days ago

There is no country on earth where young people vote more than older people. The only option is mandatory voting a la Australia, but there just isn't the political imagination to do anything that big.

braunton-mark.bsky.social•5 days ago

Yep, it’s sad really as the policy outcomes will always favour the demographic that votes. I would love to see compulsory voting introduced.

paulb3964.bsky.social•5 days ago

Why should pensions not keep up with inflation and/or wages

martinpompeyfan.bsky.social•5 days ago

Because the triple lock aspect of the formula means they’re exceeding both

paulb3964.bsky.social•5 days ago

Given the triple lock has existed for a decade or more why is the basic state pension still so low?

How are pensioners exceeding both? Isn’t it inc in wages, or inflation or 2% whichever is the higher.

martinpompeyfan.bsky.social•5 days ago

It’s low because it’s a universal benefit so it’s expensive to provide as received by so many people.

It’s much less low than it was 15 yrs ago, because of the triple lock. *On average* it results in an increase over both wages and prices because in any yr one of those will be higher than the other

chelseachemist1.bsky.social•5 days ago

So low with respect to what exactly? If you mean to Western European state pension equivalents guess what the entire current cohorts of pensioners as a block spent their working lives voting against? That’s right, levels of personal taxation equivalent to those comparator nations.

smithmichaelw.bsky.social•5 days ago

you pick one - not the best one each time.
Some years wages lag behind inflation, some years they go past it - pensioners get both upsides regardless.

mountaingeek.bsky.social•5 days ago

If it was inflation OR wages it would make more sense. You can have a 10% inflation one year and then the next year stabilises to 2% but wages go up 10% to cover previous inflation produces a 20% increase on pensions rather than an 12-13% increase. Simple math tells you it will become unaffordable.

smithmichaelw.bsky.social•5 days ago

at some point around 2042 the vast majority will have a pension from work which will be the primary retirement income, add in a huge increase in women in the work force coming to retirement in the next decade then stuff will change - this is one of those changes under Blair/Brown that will pay off

hitchikerspie.bsky.social•5 days ago

I’d not seen this, thank-you Lord and Saviour Gordon Brown.

Though it’s still absurdly costly for the next 17 years as a higher proportion of the country is in pensioner bracket

smithmichaelw.bsky.social•5 days ago

The worst bit of it all will be a huge number of people making the most fuss being on generous CS/Private pensions - plenty in that age bracket now on final salary schemes from Gov that we will pay even more for

timeforheroes.bsky.social•5 days ago

Yeah it's just a giant Ponzi scheme that's massively unsustainable.

We have an ageing population where soon 1 in 4 people will be pensioners, historically low birth rates and a country who foams at the mouth about immigration, Govt saying we are skint... I wonder how that circle will be squared..?

seldon.bsky.social•5 days ago

Used sparingly, the minor u-turn on policy can see big political benefits. "We're listening" etc.

christoframes.bsky.social•5 days ago

So you are continuing to describe possible tweaks to eligibility as a "u-turn", even tho it is here differentiated from, and more popular than, reversing the policy, which would actually be a u-turn?

poshgeordie.bsky.social•5 days ago

That is quite some alignment of Lib Dem/Lab voters and of Con/Ref voters - you’d think the leadership might notice that at some point (but not yet…)

andymoz78.bsky.social•5 days ago

Regress that against age (ie eligibility for this) and it all becomes clear

smithmichaelw.bsky.social•5 days ago

I'm sure they would do it more often if not for the massive press overreaction to doing so every time!!! Maybe some of the press need to check out what voters think more often

jayanne.bsky.social•5 days ago

48% Reform voters ….complete U turn wanted .
Why ?
Political manoeuvring?
Personal ?

timeforheroes.bsky.social•5 days ago

I wonder what the polling would look like for "Should millionaire pensioners, living in £950k houses and going on 6 holidays a year receive £250 a year off the Govt?"

judeet44.bsky.social•5 days ago

It's not a "U-turn". It's an adjustment for those on the edge of qualifying for it. Rich pensioners will not be getting wfp, therefore it's not a "U-turn".

fiona-the-celt.bsky.social•5 days ago

The alignment Lab / LDM is striking as is the alignment Con / Rfm

davidpulsford.bsky.social•5 days ago

As a pensioner with an income less than full-time minimum wage, I don't need it. I'd much prefer if the money was invested in education and the NHS.

mikercameron.bsky.social•5 days ago

Technical question. What weights are they applying to the individual political party’s here? Current or last GE?

samfr.bsky.social•5 days ago

Last GE

mikercameron.bsky.social•5 days ago

Thought it looked like that. Which means the headline all voters figures might overstate support for the u-turn?

samfr.bsky.social•5 days ago

No because it's just an average of all voters anyway. Doesn't matter who they would vote for now.

mikercameron.bsky.social•5 days ago

The 44% figure is possibly overstated.

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