Quick COVID update from me discussing latest variants and prospects for summer here. open.substack.com/pub/christin... - ThreadSky

chrischirp.bsky.social • 9 days ago

Quick COVID update from me discussing latest variants and prospects for summer here.

https://open.substack.com/pub/christinapagel/p/latest-covid-variants-and-outlook?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=8zv6v

Comments

msmisunderstood.bsky.social•9 days ago

Just in time for masses of the population to lose healthcare.

mbski15.bsky.social•9 days ago

Just in time for when they take the vaccine away from most of us🤦‍♀️

victexas04.bsky.social•9 days ago

Thanks for sharing! It’s impossible to get this info in US right now without international experts sharing.

kendryck.bsky.social•9 days ago

Do you know of this site?
https://pmc19.com/data/

cozamarsh.bsky.social•6 days ago

@who offers a pseudo-update on its Covid recommendations to member countries:
https://bsky.app/profile/cozamarsh.bsky.social/post/3lqa7zxjso225

londoner007.bsky.social•9 days ago

📌

cbc19151.bsky.social•9 days ago

Thank you Professor for this information. BTW, I have a family member who is very sick with covid right now. He is a strapping, in shape, muscular guy who has been brought to his knees with this virus.

nashvillez.bsky.social•9 days ago

fuk

jax1712.bsky.social•9 days ago

Thank you much appreciated. 🙏

jonoquinn.bsky.social•9 days ago

Thanks for taking the time to post this.

loes.bsky.social•9 days ago

Thank you

robotmeile.bsky.social•9 days ago

Thank you that’s very useful. Looks like it’s worth getting another booster.

melaniejane.bsky.social•9 days ago

Thank you for these updates, I really appreciate having a trusted source of information.

annalois36.bsky.social•9 days ago

Thank you for your updates. Much appreciated.

bioinfo.se•9 days ago

Interesting about seasonality. At least here even cold viruses (200?) Appear to me to be seasonal, why would covid be different?

kendryck.bsky.social•9 days ago

I think it's a factor of how contagious it is & the mutation rate & immunity lasting long.
The variant changes enough in 6months that you end up with a large population vulnerable again. It's spread extremely well also. Lots of people have it, it mutates a lot & immunity is lost quickly.

ianpkirk.bsky.social•9 days ago

Thanks so much for this. I'd be interested to understand why COVID is not 'yet' a seasonal virus, given that it is airborne and mitigated by ventilation.

Is it just that seasonal patterns take a few years to stabilise, or is there some other factor more related to COVID itself?

kendryck.bsky.social•9 days ago

It's so highly contagious with lots a variants circulating. It's waves come twice a year about. That about how long it takes for it to change enough so there are a bunch of vulnerable again w/ decrease immunity to the newly created variants.
I don't see how that will change d/t human behavior.

felixwelzenbach.bsky.social•9 days ago

seasonal =/= only during winter

„Seasonality, a periodic surge in disease incidence corresponding to seasons or other calendar periods.“

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17222079/

see also Rubin et al. 2025

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.03.05.25323464v2

kendryck.bsky.social•8 days ago

How do you think this applies to Covid?

Do you think Covid is going to conform? Based on some virologist discussion, I thought it was packing waves closer.
Many thing effect that though.

felixwelzenbach.bsky.social•8 days ago

2 waves a year, with a maximum during the cold season and a secondary maximum during summer. Geographic variance, depending on school holiday/travel.

Exception: Evolutionary jumps which could cause waves anytime, but that are rare events.

enniusredloeb.bsky.social•9 days ago

We need this on X too @profstevegriffin.bsky.social

enniusredloeb.bsky.social•9 days ago

FYI @ryanhisner.bsky.social

clairejane5.bsky.social•9 days ago

Thank you.

petergarbett.bsky.social•9 days ago

Trivial perhaps, but you might like to know your cookie accept all button lies on the page reset.

vrsimility.bsky.social•9 days ago

Thanks for this.

allisonpotts.bsky.social•9 days ago

Thanks for this. Will be packing extra masks to visit UK this summer.

sushipink.bsky.social•9 days ago

Thank you Professor, the warning and all of your work on this are very much appreciated. Do you have any advice about whether clinically vulnerable people should begin masking again please?

kendryck.bsky.social•9 days ago

I'm not sure why anyone that knows about what Covid does would stop masking. Any infection could highly disrupt your health. You won't know until it's too late.
Mask indoors always. Illness at the level Covid can bring isn't worth it. I'm only take risk w/ friend and family that are very careful.

avadi.bsky.social•9 days ago

My husband and I don’t share with anyone but each other. It’s been this way for years now. We will meet friends outside with lots of fresh air and space. Otherwise we mask in our trusty elastomerics. We are driving up to Ontario for a family wedding in June. Masks on when with others.

jercor.bsky.social•9 days ago

My mother in law is visiting India with family,
the whole group got COVID
this new variant is a strong bad one , 2 of them hospitalised
the rest really ill,
Roll on summer eh 😥😥😥

felixwelzenbach.bsky.social•9 days ago

Thx! Could it be denoted indeed seasonal in a way as it follows a similar pattern from the beginning, with a more or less pronounced summer wave and a more distinct autumn/winter peak? For Austria, almost all waves started in late spring since 2020 (second wave, delta, BA.5, EG.5.1, FLiRT and now).

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