I suspect poll shifts are reflective of people finally getting around to paying attention to the candidates and not relying so much on name recognition. Polls can never be more reliable than public sentiment itself, right?
I'm young and answered polls in my old state. The method of which polls are conducted aren't bad scientifically, they're just terrible at exactly this at a time where politics is overwhelmingly vibes.
Gen Z is underweighted in polling not because they won't answer calls from unknown numbers, but because historically, their current age group doesn't vote.
If they're excited by a candidate and actually turn out, results can be fucked.
yeah that's what everyone says. it's bullshit. 2022, opposite of polls. 2024, opposite of polls. Mamdani results - opposite of polls. you can't make up data from nowhere
Polling is not a perfect science and they can miss, like here, but it is a science (I'm talking about actual pollsters here, not Rasmussen and that ilk). It's like getting a weather report.
seems like long term trends towards nonresponse are making it harder. would love to see a summary of what polls were saying about the likely voters vs all respondent split
also the polls trended toward Zohran, so it's not like they aren't showing a picture of the race
oh i guess they werent getting closer to zohran according to this list, i was basing off of the ones i saw on here. so bsky was real life about the electorate but fake life about the polls.
also occurred to me that the election was held at 100 degrees and the polls were done with air conditioning
They can weight for age, but they can't adjust for weirdos who answer unknown numbers because that's their entire sample. It would not be surprising if weirdo answering the phone correlates with a particular culutural or ideological tendency.
Lol, Mamdani's internal had it Cuomo +13 back in May. I suspected private polling was showing a really tight race, which is Cuomo resorted to the endorsements he did, I really didn't see this level of miss coming though.
This isn't how polling works... Polling isn't a magic ball where people are set in stone and never change. People move as they get information. At best polling tells the state of the race during days polled w/ standard error. I understanding hating polling because the media understands it poorly.
I don't understand. Polls supported Cuomo, but so far, he's in second place.? WHY do ppl vote for an alleged sexual abuser vs Mamdani? And with "rank choice" votes, we won't know til maybe Tuesday? Per @jenpsaki.msnbc.com Hmm ...
Most of the recent ones actually got Cuomo's number pretty close (36% right now); it looks like the difference is late deciders and minor candidate supporters breaking for Mamdani.
Comments
We are so fucking back dude
Gen Z is underweighted in polling not because they won't answer calls from unknown numbers, but because historically, their current age group doesn't vote.
If they're excited by a candidate and actually turn out, results can be fucked.
Polling is not a perfect science and they can miss, like here, but it is a science (I'm talking about actual pollsters here, not Rasmussen and that ilk). It's like getting a weather report.
also the polls trended toward Zohran, so it's not like they aren't showing a picture of the race
also occurred to me that the election was held at 100 degrees and the polls were done with air conditioning
.....the rest are crap....!
Legit just no more horse race bullshit. It's so absolutely awful.