A lot of indications that a Russian state messaging fallback plan if complete military victory is impossible is to declare an imperial "partition" of Ukraine with European powers instead. Lord knows where that would leave US credibility under Trump. - ThreadSky

aphclarkson.bsky.social • 104 days ago

A lot of indications that a Russian state messaging fallback plan if complete military victory is impossible is to declare an imperial "partition" of Ukraine with European powers instead.

Lord knows where that would leave US credibility under Trump.

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enricodandolo.bsky.social•104 days ago

They've been fantasising about that for years -- so high on their own supply they can't fathom the idea that not everyone is an irredentist imperialist ghoul. Imagine thinking the Poles would agree to let Russia annex half of its neighbour in exchange for Lviv ...

aphclarkson.bsky.social•104 days ago

Each stage of European EU/NATO involvement has triggered exactly the same Lavrov talking points only for little or no follow through after. At the same time you have Russian nationalists and state media sharing maps of bits of Ukraine that Poland could "get"

rickchasey.bsky.social•104 days ago

If the US really do properly stop all support and lift Russian sanctions, Putin will surely believe the war is fully winnable?

logatex.bsky.social•104 days ago

Europe can still build a lot more drones, train more FPV drone pilots, and kill more Russians on Ukrainian soil

More dead Russians - and destroyed matériel - should be the goal, along with sanctions

delfoo.bsky.social•104 days ago

Why? The Russian defense industry can't find more skilled workers and it's losing more and more every quarter due to retirement. The Russian storage has been depleted of easily repairable vehicles. The Russian army can't recruit enough to have gains more than a few hundred meters a day.

delfoo.bsky.social•104 days ago

EU sanctions and those of other countries will remain, Russian domestic debt servicing will continue to grow beyond 10% of the federal budget. Russian oil sales won't earn more in a recession. What is there to actually significantly improve Putin's position?

delfoo.bsky.social•104 days ago

In 2025 even now Russia's entire domestic borrowing plan will be spent on servicing existing ruble debt. Putin can't throw the Ros Guard into the war cause he needs them for policing and riot control and in the regions they depend on Moscow Ros Guard to handle sporadic unrest.

delfoo.bsky.social•104 days ago

Putin's hoping that Ukraine is given to him. That's the only magical way out. Everything else leads to the same bleak future for Russia.

davesrants.com•104 days ago

If Europe maintains sanctions it would likely still mean the bulk of the impact is maintained and it also will make it difficult for entities operating in both Europe and the US to do Russian business. Hard to keep your Russian trading part of your business totally separate from your European one

michael103.bsky.social•104 days ago

I think that would bring it’s own set of issues. Would Europe step in and if they did, with a better trained army, air support and weapons, would they be superior to the depleted Russian army of conscripts… it probably takes us towards a new stalemate situation, with Europe at the table not US.

s3rp86.bsky.social•104 days ago

Eh the biggest russian market was allways europe and those sanctions aren't going away.

casmilus.bsky.social•104 days ago

Since the Poles of Lviv were resettled in the west after 1945, what claims does Poland have on Ukraine in 2025?

billypilgrim65.bsky.social•104 days ago

That assumes there is any credibility left.

andybeger.bsky.social•104 days ago

And a mass of people who took intro to IR and learned about realism and listen to Mearsheimer will line up to justify how this, even if unjust, is simply ordained by the laws of nature.

isbi.bsky.social•104 days ago

Why is there even a disposition among the "European powers" for the "partition of Ukraine"? A ceasefire is one thing; recognition of the factual situation is something entirely different.

angrysmiley.bsky.social•104 days ago

You know, that would very will be the plan (with China orchestrating).

If you sum up everything, the US is turning into an untrustworthy partner, thus China might emerge as the "saviour".

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