Indeed. @silverbullet.md has a fairly active Discourse forum now, but I have to admit that I have toyed with the idea of tackling the whole forum software thing once more. Community software is nice. At least it was nice in the early 2000s. These days it’s probably 90% spam and moderation handling…
I’d predict that there will remain one de-facto “instance” (or whatever the terminology is) only, and nobody “non-nerd” will even know or understand what federation is. Maybe that’s ok. Until the main instance is sold and then…
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Federation is one way to work around that, but it's still an adoption hurdle for Mastodon. It'll be interesting to see how BSky/AT protocol plays out.