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armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
Professor at the Middlebury Institute, member of the National Academies Committee on International Security and Arms Control, and former member of the State Department's International Security Advisory Board.
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I've worked up an assessment of U.S. and Israeli missile defense interceptor expenditures since June 13 Based on video evidence AT LEAST, 39 THAAD, 34 Arrow-3, & ~9 Arrow-2s have been used. For more on the methodology, ABM sites in Israel, and implications, check out the article

submitted 6 hours ago • 3 comments

Based on videos taken in Jordan, @slair.bsky.social was able to identify all of Israel's missile defense sites, determine the interceptor type based on their burn-time and then estimate the number of interceptors fired. A tour-de-force. www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...

submitted 7 hours ago • 4 comments

submitted 7 hours ago • 2 comments

Think of treaties as like vaccines -- more effective than quack cures but deeply unpopular among the stupidest people on earth.

submitted 10 hours ago • 7 comments

Even if the US had destroyed Fordow, Iran retained a number of other underground facilities that were never bombed. I realize that half the people who voted for Trump think they can "manifest abundance", but it doesn't work for disarmament. You actually have to hit the bunker.

submitted 11 hours ago • 3 comments

JCPOA > MOP

submitted 11 hours ago • 3 comments

@dmitri.silverado.org talks to Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social about whatever now constitutes the Iranian nuclear program and what might be next. Super interesting and discusses various possibilities - but don't expect definitive answers.

submitted 17 hours ago • 1 comment

I guess blowing up Fordow and declaring Iran denuclearized is the new closing Yongbyon and declaring North Korea denuclearized?

submitted 1 day ago • 20 comments

🍆 🇺🇸 💥

submitted 2 days ago • 3 comments

NEW: Here's what the latest satellite imagery from Maxar and others tell us about Operation Midnight Hammer. www.npr.org/2025/06/22/n...

submitted 2 days ago • 7 comments

Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures. 🧵 1/17

submitted 2 days ago • 95 comments

The bar is playing “Rock the Casbah”. It’s a little too on the nose if you ask me.

submitted 2 days ago • 6 comments

BDA is hard and uncertain. Normally, I would expect the USG to overestimate BDA (as it did against Yugoslavia in 1999) for totally forgivable reasons like -- "Well, we hit the target and the calculation says that "should have resulted in x damage." But they seem appropriately cautious.

submitted 2 days ago • 4 comments

Going to process some satellite images, do some interviews and maybe write a little thread about why I remain underwhelmed by Rising Lion/Midnight Hammer.

submitted 2 days ago • 8 comments

The threat to the @iaeaorg.bsky.social Director-General is despicable. (I presume Iran is laying the groundwork to withdraw from the NPT and terminate its safeguards agreement with the @iaeaorg.)

submitted 3 days ago • 7 comments

Hello @nuclear-jim.bsky.social!

submitted 3 days ago • 2 comments