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armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
Professor at the Middlebury Institute, member of the National Academies Committee on International Security and Arms Control, and former member of the State Department's International Security Advisory Board.
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A lie as bald as Zarif's head. Rafael Grossi, the IAEA DG, never said it. The host mentioned the "ancient site," not Grossi. He corrected her, said the IAEA does not speculate and was clear the IAEA does "not have information about the whereabouts" of Iran's stockpile of HEU.

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

A lie as bald as Zarif's head. Rafael Grossi, the IAEA DG, never said it. The host mentioned the "ancient site," not Grossi. He corrected her, said the IAEA does not speculate and was clear the IAEA does "not have information about the whereabouts" of Iran's stockpile of HEU.

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

Did you miss today's virtual event with @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social, @barakravid.bsky.social, and @marieharf.bsky.social analyzing the current state of the war between Israel and Iran? Watch the recording on our YouTube channel: youtu.be/TraecOMgug0

submitted 1 day ago • 1 comment

The US and Israel have left Iran in possession of a small but significant nuclear capability. What next? me in @ForeignPolicy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/27/i...

submitted 1 day ago • 4 comments

Feeling confused about the state of Iran's nuclear facilities? Here's a rundown of what we know at each facility (with thoughts from @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and @coreyah.bsky.social among others). www.npr.org/2025/06/26/n...

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Telling comments from Sens. Cotton and Graham. It's incredible--and not in a good way--to fight war that's nominally for nonproliferation and end up with several bomb's worth of highly enriched uranium (after further enrichment) left unaccounted for.

submitted 2 days ago • 7 comments

Come and work with us! We're hiring for a new program assistant. Apply by June 30! carnegieendowment.applicantpro.com/jobs/3780781

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

An underexplored angle in the MOP discourse is that we've given every future potential proliferator with reasonably mountainous terrain pretty good data on designing passive defenses robust to the most capable non-nuclear munitions that exist.

submitted 3 days ago • 9 comments

I've worked up an assessment of U.S. and Israeli missile defense interceptor expenditures since June 13 Based on video evidence AT LEAST, 39 THAAD, 34 Arrow-3, & ~9 Arrow-2s have been used. For more on the methodology, ABM sites in Israel, and implications, check out the article

submitted 4 days ago • 3 comments

Based on videos taken in Jordan, @slair.bsky.social was able to identify all of Israel's missile defense sites, determine the interceptor type based on their burn-time and then estimate the number of interceptors fired. A tour-de-force. www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1220...

submitted 4 days ago • 8 comments

submitted 4 days ago • 3 comments

Think of treaties as like vaccines -- more effective than quack cures but deeply unpopular among the stupidest people on earth.

submitted 4 days ago • 14 comments

Even if the US had destroyed Fordow, Iran retained a number of other underground facilities that were never bombed. I realize that half the people who voted for Trump think they can "manifest abundance", but it doesn't work for disarmament. You actually have to hit the bunker.

submitted 4 days ago • 3 comments

JCPOA > MOP

submitted 4 days ago • 3 comments

@dmitri.silverado.org talks to Jeffrey Lewis @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social about whatever now constitutes the Iranian nuclear program and what might be next. Super interesting and discusses various possibilities - but don't expect definitive answers.

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

I guess blowing up Fordow and declaring Iran denuclearized is the new closing Yongbyon and declaring North Korea denuclearized?

submitted 5 days ago • 20 comments

🍆 🇺🇸 💥

submitted 6 days ago • 3 comments

NEW: Here's what the latest satellite imagery from Maxar and others tell us about Operation Midnight Hammer. www.npr.org/2025/06/22/n...

submitted 6 days ago • 7 comments

Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures. 🧵 1/17

submitted 6 days ago • 96 comments