bfj-mb.bsky.social
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Discussion Master
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Completely agree.
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That's your projection, but might not be Chevy's. I haven't seen Toews skate or reviewed his fitness parameters. The broader point is Chevy having a frank conversation with Ehlers about plans, as he did with 55 and 37.aybe he plans to get a different 2C.
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But that was also because Arniel used the 4th line more. Ehlers and Lowry were basically tied for 4th in playoff F ice-time about 2 minutes more than Nino and 2.5 minutes more than Appleton. Would have been 4th on Canes. About equal to Tkachuk and more than Marchand, fwiw.
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Could happen, but I think Chevy would need some certainty early enough to pivot to other options (assuming they would want to fill a roster gap left by Ehlers). In fact, I think Chevy might want clarity before the draft, so he has trade options to consider. Ehlers leaves a big roster gap to fill.
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Probably, but I think that sort of conversation is the only likely way for the Jets to retain Ehlers. I don't see them bidding for him vs. other teams after July 1.
This past season Ehlers generally was 4th among Fs in ice-time, but had dips in TOI around the times of his injuries.
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It's possible, but I think it's unlikely. I expect the Jets to do their best to persuade him to stay prior to July 1, but then move to other options via trade and/or free agency if Ehlers can't be persuaded.
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I really don't see how Ehlers "testing free agency" works. Will the Jets be willing to wait around for Ehlers to look around? I doubt it. Most important UFA business happens very quickly and unless the Jets have no Plan B I can't see them holding space. More likely they get a final decision earlier.
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I've wondered if Chevy might have a discussion with Ehlers that lays out the Jets plans more transparently, as he did with 55 and 37 to secure them. Ehlers averaged 17 minutes TOI in the playoffs, tied with Lowry behind only 81-55-13. PP1, too. Maybe project an Ehlers-Toews duo for him?
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If he's cheaper, that's better. I think he's the kind of player that would work well in the Jets' middle 6 and would perform well in the playoffs. Two more years on his contract at 4.9M is a good contract situation, too.
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Fully on board with Mangiapane, and the Jets can and should afford a bit of an overpay in UFA.
I can see two trade options...
Will Cuylle... might be remote, but he's a serious offer sheet candidate. Price would be high.
Coleman... might be available for the right price? Probably 1st + prospect.
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What would be your predicted win % with Pickard in goal for the Oilers?
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"Moneyball" is more crucial with a tight cap. Jets don't really have any prospects that are sure bets to be able to compensate for Ehlers' loss, even "averaging" with Appleton. I think their might be some suitable options on the trade market.
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I don't see any internal options that are close to providing the offense and transition play that Ehlers provided. In this competitive window I would think they'd want to go "all in".
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If so, I doubt the Jets will wait around for Ehlers to test the free agency market and come back to them. They'll need to have a replacement plan via trade and/or free agency and can't just hold cap space for Ehlers.
Options?
Trade? Cuylle, Coleman
UFA? Mangiapane, Boeser?
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I agree with all of that.
My main point is that I don't think that the lack of information in the past few weeks since Chevy met with Ehlers' agent (for 2 hours) has changed the odds. I expected they might continue to negotiate up to a deadline & move on if they hit an impasse for whatever reason.
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No new signs on Ehlers. Strange how quiet it's been if he's leaving (look at all the noise about Marner). Chevy and Ehlers' agent staying disciplined. I think we'll get a clear picture in the pre-draft week. Ehlers' replacement? Cuylle would be a very good fit in the Jets' middle-6.
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I don't think the silence is necessarily positive, just that the probability doesn't keep sinking with each passing day. If they are still negotiating then it would make sense to work towards final offers as the deadline approaches. If they are at an impasse, that might have leaked by now.
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I don't get the notion that the odds of Ehlers' re-signing with the Jets keeps declining with time. Most negotiations work towards a deadline (July 1 in this case) and we won't know the result until closer to the deadline. If anything, no news might indicate negotiations haven't been halted.
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Hellebuyck goes Bang! Bang!
What a season for Bucky and the Jets.
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That would work for Ehlers but it leaves the Jets in limbo with a big question mark through the draft and into free agency, where most of the action happens right away. I think it's more likely that "Shubble Dayoff" makes his best pitch & gets an answer before July 1, or earlier (e.g. Guentzel).
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Yes, but I expect the Jets will insist on an answer earlier than July 1 so they can adjust their trade and free agency strategy accordingly. Jets will likely want clarity before the draft. They can also look into trading negotiation rights or a sign-and-trade before July 1.
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Ehlers will likely make his decision about the Jets before July 1, and might have already made it. It won't be a bidding war involving the Jets, in my view.
I read somewhere that Toews can't sign a contract before July 1. Is that the case?
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Other than the huge amounts of money that the sports gambling cartels shovel at sports media outlets, can anyone identify one positive aspect of sports gambling? In addition to the toxicity towards athletes, we will soon hear more and more about the shattered lives of gambling addicts.
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...even more prescient. 🙂
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Have you been hearing some of the plaudits from scouts based on his combine / interviews, Murat?
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Has Nehring played any C? He's developed in leaps and bounds this past season and I think he has a very nice size / skill combination. Plays a "hard" game, too. Gives the Jets a bit more latitude to take a swing on high-end skill, perhaps.
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Curious as to which players you would have preferred in Murat's spot. You are more dialled in than most fans.
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From tidbits I've read, Ryker Lee really improved his stock at the combine through measurements, testing, and interviews. Seems like a good boom-bust swing. With the development of He and Nehring as "hard/fast" players, maybe the Jets would be willing to take a swing on pure talent like Lee.
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Yup. A couple of the scouts quoted by Edwards (Hockeyprospect.com) thought he was a top-20 pick. He measured just over 6' at the combine, and has apparently grown taller this year. Some team(s) are going to bet on his skill and athleticism and character and hope his skating improves enough.
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Hockeyprospect has him at #20 and quotes a couple of scouts that think he could be a real hit. Apparently had a very good combine with great interviews. Lots of athleticism, so maybe his skating / quickness will improve. Definitely boom/bust, type. Might be better to gamble on more size / speed.
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Interesting. Would be nice if they both balanced their games a bit. Salomonsson can probably add offense, and vice versa for Freij.
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Fun. I see that @wpgmurat.bsky.social nabbed Ryker Lee for the Jets. Seems like a Jets type of 1st round pick. I like the idea of swinging for the fences in the late 1st. Another "safer" option might be Zonnon. A few mocks have him going at #28. Very different concept... floor vs. ceiling.
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Impressive. Well deserved.
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Probably needs to round out his game by strengthening his defense, because his offense is good but maybe not enough by itself. Maybe fashioned sort of like Forsling, who's one of my favourite NHL Ds. Solid, great skating, sting you with offense, too.
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Really hard for me to get a read on Freij's trajectory and potential. Seems he had variable usage. Probably needs to take a leap forward in terms of dynamism to get onto an NHL path. Seems to have decent size.
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He seems like the energy type that 🍁likes to use in their bottom 6. Walton probably needs a bit more pace in his game to make a national team.
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For the Jets, seeing teams go after Morrissey and Scheifele every playoff season gets a bit tiring. Teams know they are key and tee off on them, and it has been a successful strategy. I miss Buff. Not just a deterrent, but also a force. Might the Jets consider reuniting 44-8 for one season?
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It's destiny... (I actually really like what I've read about Zonnon).
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Bennett for $9M+ or Lowry for $3-4M? Hmmm...
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That's a good point. I don't expect many offer sheets in the NHL this summer, and would be very surprised if the Jets were involved. But the threat of an offer sheet can push a team into looking for a pre-emptive trade, rather than matching an OS and being committed for a year.
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Yes, it would have to be a "good faith" agreement, rather than official. As you've noted, Rashevsky might not be good enough to warrant too much special consideration. Looks like his future in Russia will be a long way from Moscow, though...
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I also won't be surprised if they go into the season without a major move for a 2C. My guess is they'll sign Toews & take a longer look at Barron, considering the market.
Might not do much else if Ehlers re-signs. If Ehlers walks, might go after a mid-6 winger that adds offense. More options there.
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McLeod is my favourite option, though I don't know if the Sabres would even consider trading him. He'll be turning 26 just before the season and is an RFA.
Problem for the Jets is that they mainly have futures to trade, and many teams will look for roster players.
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Jets would likely have to offer some assurances on the salary / usage side.
But it's notable that Magnitogorsk is over 1000 miles from Moscow, near the border with Kazakhstan. Omsk is even further; literally in Siberia. A far cry from Moscow, I would think.
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I think teams teed off on Morrissey down the stretch and intensified that in the playoffs. It took away Morrissey's ability to activate and took a toll on him physically. DeMelo was a weaker partner for him when the intensity ratcheted up. Murphy would be a one-season / playoff option.
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Probably, but I was thinking that Murphy would be a good fit if they need an upgrade for the playoff run. Normally, his NTC might be an impediment, but if Toews is on the roster he might be more inclined to waive.
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Demelo was on the decline this season and that pair struggled in the playoffs. Blues and Stars overran that pair and Morrissey had to do way too much. I think they could use another bigger mobile RHD. I still haven't seen a realistic plan to acquire a good 2C this summer.
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Yup. Sillinger is slow, produces 5v5 offense at about the rate of Barron (despite playing further up the line-up), and hasn't really shown much in terms of play-driving.
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I'm not a fan of the Sillinger idea. He hasn't shown much at all at the NHL level (see below). He lacks speed and quickness. I think Perfetti or Vilardi might be better options if we want to go with a slowish 2C. I'd prefer trying Barron, whose primary production is equivalent (5v5).
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Agree. I think that with Barron moving to C and the prospect pipeline starting to bubble up to the NHL level, there are fewer opportunities with the Jets. If they can recoup a pick, that would be a good result.