emile-chabal.bsky.social
Professor of Contemporary History at the University of Edinburgh. Historian of 20thC France/Europe (especially politics & ideas), intellectual history, Marxism, Hobsbawm. Editor of Contemporary European History.
More about me: https://emilechabal.com/
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This passage - from an anonymous academic - just sitting there in the middle of the article. Where do we go from here? What does one do with this statement, these thoughts?
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Breathtaking: "I always asked myself why people stayed silent during the Second World War as the Jews were being exterminated. I know the answer now looking at Israel, looking at us: because we want to continue living our lives as before and it's too hard to look and speak".
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More info about the book here: www.cambridge.org/core/books/s...
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Or: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
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Sure! Yes, it's to do with 2-round electoral system. For English readers, best historical intro to far-right in France is by the sadly-departed Jim Shields, Extreme-Right in France (Routledge, 2007). He wrote more up-to-date articles after that, eg: academic.oup.com/pa/article-a...
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Thanks so much!
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Sure. You can find my e-mail on my university profile as well (or reply to our last communication from April 2022!)
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Yes, and I love that the INA have been trolling her with these videos in recent days. Archivists fight back!
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V glad this is provoking sensible debate!
No, RN definitely not like ISIS (!), but leadership crisis could really take hold. Or not. Depending on how MLP plays it.
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Don't worry, Macron's decision to call an election last year remains a mystery both to everyone around him and the scholarly community working on France! I wrote about that here, with a colleague: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
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Yes, it'll be interesting to see how she positions herself at the JT at 8 today. But the reputational damage is real - and the damage to the Le Pen brand. It undercuts MLP's posturing (see video clip: www.ina.fr/ina-eclaire-...) and also opens an internal threat to her leadership.
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But this fine would be big (it's actually 2m EUR, of which 1m must be paid, ie. cannot be reduced). FN/RN has been close to bankruptcy several times before. So it has serious consequences still.
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You are absolutely right that there is no mechanical link btw expenditure and vote share, but it's about institutionalisation of the party. In Fr system, MLP cannot win without a functioning and credible party machine; she has been on that route w/parliamentary successes = more income.
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Tbf, as I say in point 4, French politicians have - traditionally - been *far more* corrupt than their British counterparts. I wish I could say France was better in this regard than the UK, but it's really not!
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I certainly don't think it "increases" the chance. The question is how far does it damage the party's chances. It's too early to tell.
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It's possible, but the party would need to be totally reorganised, Bardella would need to be miles better than he is now, and any candidate would have to make up for the huge potency of the Le Pen "brand" in French politics. We literally don't know what the party looks like w/out a Le Pen in charge.
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We might still come to see this verdict as turning point that propels the RN to power in a few years time, but I'm not so convinced this crisis will be beneficial. If nothing else, let's enjoy the internecine warfare this will provoke, as Le Pen's apparatchiks stab each other in the back! /end
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8) Last thoughts: it can be tempting to see all setbacks/crises etc. as beneficial to the far-right. Ppl will have in mind Trump's many convictions and him still coming back to power. But the far-right in France has had several open goals in recent years and progress has been slow... 6/
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...corruption everywhere, especially in a party that is so vertical in its organisation.
7) The RN have not been talking seriously - even amongst themselves - about this eventuality. What happens now? Is Bardella ready? Can they harness her guilt for victimhood? Big unknowns. 5/
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5) FN/RN built a lot of their strength on hammering mainstream parties and their corruption. Ths gives MLP's opponents a massive stick to beat her with.
6) It damages the party's attempts at "credibilisation", just as RN seeks parliamentary respectability. Corruption at the top suggests... 4/
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4) Reputational damage to MLP personally will be severe. Historically, the French didn't mind corrupt politicians, but times are changing. Plus corruption works when there are clients (eg. Juppé in Bordeaux or Chirac in Paris). MLP is not serving a community, only herself and her party 3/
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...it's a huge embarrassment and a serious setback, electorally, too. The FN/RN is a Le Pen fiefdom. If it's decapitated, it'll unleash serious tensions.
3) Party is being fined 1 million EUR. This is also a big deal. Potentially guts the party's finances. Serious knock-on effects... 2/
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Pour de vrai, no joke: www.lefigaro.fr/vox/politiqu...
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Merci!
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Thanks :)
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Absolutely! (Although I'm happy to get unfavourable reaction - this is a compliment in France, and I will take it as such, replying with my own vigorous denunciation of everyone else's ignorance...)
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Ah oui, j'espère bien! :)
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I remember, at the book launch in 2020, @arthurasseraf.bsky.social asked who the audience for the book was and whether French people might react differently to it than an Anglophone audience. Now, perhaps, I can start to answer that question...