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ensembleator.bsky.social
Semi-retired meteorologist, living in lovely #YVR since 1994. I often write forecasts using abbreviations due to social media character limits. Dnt wry, U wll gt it.
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Mxd skies this AM #YVR as a ridge builds onto the cst tdy. Ridge-dominant flow thru the wk ahead with some variations in cloud and temps as waves pass by to the N. But on the whole, mainly sunny, warm and dry this PM-well into July and with confidence well into next wknd. Nr 30C inland tmrw-Tue

submitted 6 minutes ago • 0 comments

Nice example of KH waves in stratocumulus this morning #YVR

submitted 23 minutes ago • 0 comments

Last in a series of upr trofs move onto the BC cst this AM followed by a building ridge, for a dry warm interval lasting at least a week #YVR. Cldy w/light shwrs dvlpg later AM tapering off late PM. Clearing Sat AM. Mainly sunny, warm/dry Sun-Tue. A few clds/cooler (but still warmish/dry) Wed-Fri

submitted 1 day ago • 0 comments

Shwrs tdy -Fri #YVR as a series of upr trofs in a W flo track thru SWBC. Clrg, warmer Sat as a ridge blds onto the cst. Sunny, warm Sun. That continues thru at least Thu: mainly sunny and warm w/a large 4 corners ridge over the US SW steering weather to the N. Temps inland reaching 30+C by Mon.

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

#YVR under a light, weakly unstable Wly flow. This pattern holds thru Fri, w/vrbl-cloudy skies, off and on light showers, and temps near avg. Showers more frequent alpine. Sunshine and warmth increase on the wknd as a ridge builds onto the coast and this is likely to persist well into nxt wk

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

Increasing cloud tdy #YVR as an upr trof in a zonal flo moves onto the cst. Clds, slight chc shwr Wed AM. Chilly E wind. Vrbl skies, cooler Thu AM. Nxt upr trof Thu PM-Fri AM; again w/the slight chc shwr. Alpine areas shwry thru the pd. Ridge builds in Fri PM-Mon. Drier, warmer, wknd w/lots of sun.

submitted 4 days ago • 1 comment

A ridge ovhd flattens this AM #YVR as an upr trof approaches from the W. Unsettled thru Thu undr a zonal flow w/periodic weak upr trofs. Mainly cloudy tdy/some PM breaks. Chc ptchy AM drizzle. Vrbl skies Tue. Lght shwrs Wed AM w/some PM clrg. Chc shwr Thu AM then vrbl sky. Temps nr-a bit below avg.

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Hottest-feeling June day in Toronto since at least 1979

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Appalling heat back east

submitted 5 days ago • 2 comments

An MCS that dropped 25 mm of rain in 1 hr on Kingston ON ovnite seen departing into Srn NY/NE PA/N NJ, while the next MCS - likely to follow a similar path, perhaps a little further E - intensifies N of Lake Huron

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

A ridge builds, then weakens ovr SWBC this AM thru Mon AM. The flow aloft is Nly and a bit unstbl. At the sfc, the winds are onshore. A flat W flow carries weak trofs ovr #YVR Mon and Tue PMs. Partial clrg ltr this AM. Chc shwr or ⚡N shore eve. Vrbl skies Mon. Clds/chc shwr Tue PM. Unsettled Wed

submitted 5 days ago • 0 comments

Interesting day for stormophiles over southern ON as a squall line takes shape over Lake Huron, forecast to impact most of southern Ontario this PM through early overnight. Given high values of both CAPE and Helicity with this system, tornadoes are likely to form. Lightning from GOES satellite

submitted 6 days ago • 0 comments

Upr low over SE WA in tandem w/an upr low over Srn AB continues to pump moisture over the Rockies into SWBC. Flow gradually abates this AM w/shwrs tapering off by mid day #YVR. Instability ovr the alpine may produce a shwr ovnite. Vrbl skies Sun, chc of a late PM/eve shwr. Vrbl skies/warmer Mon

submitted 6 days ago • 0 comments

Some kind of fire near VGH # YVR

submitted 7 days ago • 1 comment

⚡ovr Boundary Bay this AM #YVR as shwrs, at times hvy, lift into #YVR this AM. Upr low to the SW this AM, and to the S Sat, continues to stream moisture into SWBC. Scattered shwrs this PM/eve. Rain ovnite tapering off Sat PM as flow aloft becomes subsident. Vrbl skies/warmer Sun, Mon. Happy summer!

submitted 8 days ago • 1 comment

Double barreled upr low cmplx (1 centre BC central cst, the other ~50M 140W) shifts SE tdy-Sat, lofting increasing amts of moisture into the LM. Increasing cld tdy. Clouds/chc shwrs Fri. Light rain Sat AM tapering PM as the flow aloft shifts to NE: subsident for the LM. Vrbl skies Sun. Sunny Mon

submitted 9 days ago • 1 comment

230 km/h Jet-amplified upr trof linked to a circulation aloft 50.5N 132.1W swings thru SWBC tdy. Fast-moving cells give shwrs, risk ⚡(esp. N shore/vly). Gusty SW wind ltr PM. Dry, vrbl skies Thu. Shwrs Fri under an unstbl SLy flow. Potentially rainy Sat as moisture wraps around an upr low ovr WA

submitted 10 days ago • 1 comment

Laminar flow in altostratus this morning #YVR

submitted 10 days ago • 0 comments

Not a front and barely a trof but rather an area of mid lvl ascent powered by jetstream dynamics moves thru #YVR this AM for cloud, slight chc shwr. Diffluent flow E of the offshr upr low generates shwrs Wed mainly N Shore. Thu dry under a brisk SW flow. Shwrs undr an upr low Fri PM-Sat. Sun dry.

submitted 11 days ago • 0 comments

Weak upr trof lifts thru this AM #YVR. Pretty clds w/some PM clrg. Vrbl skies Tue w/a chc shwrs by PM thru Wed PM as a series of upr trofs rotate thru SWBC. Vrbl skies Thu. Shwrs Fri/Sat as the offshore upr low finally shifts inland ovr SWBC. Mainly sunny/Nly flow Sun

submitted 12 days ago • 1 comment

Much less low cld this AM but hi cld approaching from a wave to the W. So vrbl skies tdy #YVR + a little warmer. Minor upr trof Xs SWBC Mon AM w/more cloud but dry. Vrbl skies Tue under a SW flow aloft. Clds w/light shwrs Wed. Back to SW flow/vrbl skies Thu. Upr low drops ovr SWBC Fri/Sat: 🚿Sun dry

submitted 13 days ago • 0 comments

Current wildfire hotspot clusters (black circles) mapped on top of forecast model precip for the week ahead. Some respite likely except for the US Pac NW. In BC, the W Cariboo, Okanagan/SI and far SE remain dry and vulnerable

submitted 14 days ago • 0 comments

These hemispheric 6-wave patterns are very slow to shift and lead to persistent weather regimes of a week or a bit more

submitted 14 days ago • 2 comments

#YVR under a SW flow aloft to the east of a quasistationary trof anchored to an upr low in the NE Pacific. This pattern persists for the week ahead. In a stable onshore sfc flow expect clds in the AM and partial PM sun tdy-Tue. A minor trof may bring shwrs Wed AM. Upr low inland nxt Sat w/some rain.

submitted 14 days ago • 0 comments

#YVR undr a SW flow on the E side of a large upr trof anchored to a NE Gulf of AK low. Ydy was very cool - within 1C of a record low max T. Tied 2nd coolest since 1955. Dry, vrbl skies w/temps cool-near avg thru Sun. Warmer Mon. Chc shwrs Tue w/a minor upr trof. Rest of next wk looks unsettled/cool

submitted 15 days ago • 0 comments

Cloudy day w/shwrs confined mainly to the alpine #YVR; just a few spots city as a weak upr low approaches from the WSW. Brisk SE winds in a toilet bowl circulation this AM shifting to a brisk NW beaches this eve-ovnite. Vrbl skies, seasonable temps Fri-wknd under a SW flow aloft. Chc shwrs Mon.

submitted 15 days ago • 0 comments

Vrbl hi clds tdy #YVR as an upr trof approaches from the W. Cldy w/a few shwrs Thu and cooler. Breezy fm the E. Chc ⛈️Whistler-Pemberton tonite/Thu. Gnly in a weak upr trof pattern Fri-wknd so temps nr avg and vrbl skies but not expecting much precip if any. Chc shwrs Mon w/another weak upr trof.

submitted 17 days ago • 2 comments

Cirrocumulus with virga #YVR

submitted 17 days ago • 0 comments

More daily temp records set yesterday in SWBC weather.gc.ca/warnings/wea...

submitted 17 days ago • 0 comments

Wispy cirrus/light winds this AM. A tiny upr low 46.5N 130.3W will loft ovhead this PM w/more hi cloud + jellyfish cirrus (cirrocumulus floccus). Warm. More cld Wed PM w/a sharper upr trof but it remains dry. Chc 🌩️alpine twd Whistler Wed eve/ovnite. Light shwrs Thu and cooler. Dry/vrbl skies Fri

submitted 18 days ago • 1 comment

Record hot in a lot of SW BC locations yesterday: weather.gc.ca/warnings/wea...

submitted 19 days ago • 1 comment

Flat ridge ovr SWBC w/an upr low nr 40N 130W lifting NE. Mainly sunny + warm tdy #YVR. Breezy, cooler beach. A few clds a bit cooler Tue. Increasing cld Wed PM as a stronger upr trof approaches from the W. Clds, shwrs Thu , starting a cooler, more unsettled stretch that could last a wk

submitted 19 days ago • 1 comment

Take care in the heat this afternoon. Breezy beach - windy ovnite. #YVR under a high amplitude W flow aloft. Mainly sunny w/gradual cooling each day thru Wed then real cooling + shwrs Thu as a trof moves in off the Pacific. We seem to get stuck in a trof thru next weekend so showery and cool rules.

submitted 19 days ago • 1 comment

Smoke from active fires in BC and AB this PM. Breezy, but nothing like tomorrow when a dry cold front sweeps through the area.

submitted 20 days ago • 0 comments

Potentially rather breezy beaches #YVR Sunday eve - Monday AM as a channeled flow responds to building high pressure N of Vancouver Island and falling pressures over the interior of BC and the Pac NW

submitted 20 days ago • 0 comments

Cirrocumulus with virga this morning #YVR

submitted 20 days ago • 0 comments

Night imagery shows just a few cirrocu clouds speeding SE over #YVR this AM w/a huge fog bank off VI. Mainly sunny tdy-Tue #YVR. Light W winds modulate temps nr the beach ea. day. Low 20s beach-high 20's inland tdy. Add 5C Sun. A few C cooler Mon/Tue as the ridge flattens. Cooler Wed w/a marine push

submitted 21 days ago • 0 comments