guymc.com
Sports & computers
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🤣🤣
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Do you think Lyon might view her primarily as a long-term project to mold into that kind of box-crashing 10, perhaps to complement or eventually succeed Heaps? She's still young and might be worth a gamble on as an understudy, especially as a free?
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Depends on how your data is stored (and what data you're using) but I like spinning up a metabase local open source environment for poking around my databases
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Hi Rouven, thanks for sharing it was a very interesting read. I'd be interesting in looking to extend your ANS model to incorporate it into my WSL model if you'd please be willing to share the code?
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Oh so I'm way off with hopes of a surprise start tomorrow? 😅
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Thanks, Tim!
Disappointed to see no official word on Russo & Kelly - do you have any info / best guess on when we might expect to see them next?
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Yeah that's in there. I reckon the issue is probably how I'm handling quarter and whole goal spreads and totals. Thanks very much for your help!
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To clarify: I'm optimizing to find λH and λA such that:
1) 1-Poisson.cdf(total, λH+λA) = over probability
2) Skellam.cdf(handicap, λA, λH) = probability of home covering
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Yeah I think that's pretty much I what I had. Thanks for confirming - back to the drawing board for me I suppose!
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That's how it's done 👏
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Hi Nils, please can I ask how you derive your goal estimates from the handicap and goal lines? I'm trying to get it by inverting the poisson and skellam distributions but my subsequent models don't seem to fit very well.
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Hear, hear!
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Gameweek 32
We cross 1 mil together
Hand in hand, we rise
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10's a bit high. I don't have the data in front of me but I think there's often a 7-8 pointer up for grabs
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Best guesses for where the champions league clashing WSL fixtures will be rearranged to?
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Is McCabe suspended for Palace for a 5th yellow or does whatever happened against Chelsea not count as a yellow? Cheers 😃
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this is unusual 😂 my friend found your Transfer Flow newsletter and she keepss telling me about your Variance Betting returns. she's too worried to dm u so pls can you message her? don't tell her I sent this or she will kill me lmao 😭 she really wants to know how to break into football analytics
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Not dating app related but perhaps something you might want to cover - how can I share this podcast series with my friends to attempt to improve our relationship (like in ep.0) or to wean them off the redpill pipeline and improve their dating without saying: "I think you suck and this will fix you"
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No of course there isn't 😂 You're welcome to lift my table calculation part from my simulator if what you're doing is python based. Just DM and I'll point you to it ☺️
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I just calculate it 🙃
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How can I get involved? 😁
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Claude should embrace the variance and take a risk for once!
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Nothing else from me, they distribute the same as Palace but slightly worse I think
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Ah yes I get you now. I think all numbers within the bars are technically possible but certainly not equally likely and are distributed like your numbers there
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Glasner vs Arteta:
As with all of these charts, feel free to swap out Glasner with whichever flavour of table bonus manager you prefer. They're all near enough to each other that you can let your personal biases sway you!
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Glasner vs Arteta:
As with all of these charts, feel free to swap out Glasner with whichever flavour of table bonus manager you prefer. They're all near enough to each other that you can let your personal biases sway you!
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Well it depends on whether you want to risk it for the higher ceiling by picking Glasner
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Yeah will do - I'll hold fire until after Villa/Liverpool for obvious reasons
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And before anyone asks to see the Leicester distribution instead:
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👀 coming after Villa/Liverpool 😉
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🤣🤣
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A full probability matrix for every outcome for Slot and Moyes' points after the Merseyside Derby 🔵🔴
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Early look at GW26 projections:
I will not be riding the Leicester rollercoaster
Will update closer to deadline when form/injury data is fresher.
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I will do before GW26. I can give you a sneak peak if tomorrow if it would be helpful for planning
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Thanks, Rob. Means a lot! ❤️🤗
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If you saw a previous, errant version of this post... no you didn't 🤫
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Probably a question that @elevenify.com could answer better - but I'd wager that even the most gradual of Bayesian models will have moved sufficiently off their priors to accurately estimate this slightly weaker City side
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I'll be bringing a set of charts and tables for that question closer to 26 - however early data is saying that Slot (EV: 5.5) -> Arteta (EV: 9.6) is probably a no brainer