jnichretired.bsky.social
Retired commodity market publishing manager. I've lived and worked in London, Singapore, Washington DC and Amsterdam. Now based in Surrey.
264 posts
396 followers
559 following
Prolific Poster
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Trump has killed all the parts of the party that should care about the long term—congressional leaders, party organization, fundraising, etc. Republican fundraising was almost entire a few major donors last cycle (Elon, Adelson). This is a huge long term problem 4/x
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Das stimmt
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According to @shashj.bsky.social in a webinar yesterday, the bombs could certainly do a job on Natanz, but probably not Fordow.
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“We.”
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If the Khamenei regime ends up with its proxy forces across the Middle East in tatters, an economy in freefall, the IRGC hammered and forced to concede denuclearisation then it has lost its long war in ways that inevitably have long term consequences
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With Netanyahu and Trump you're dealing with leaders who don't give a shit about post-conflict stabilisation or shaping specific postwar outcomes you'd need a ground occupation force for. Netanyahu doesn't care what happens to Iran as long as its shattered, and Trump will move on after airstrikes
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5️⃣ X shifts to the right without losing reach
Use of X for news is stable or growing, with the biggest uplift in the US (+8), Australia (+6) & Poland (+6). Since Musk's takeover, more right-leaning people have flocked to X. Threads and Bluesky are used by less than 2% globally
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We suffered during the Brexit debates of 2016 and after because Corbyn was an ineffective opposition leader. We suffer now, though not yet to the same extent, from the lack of an effective opposition. The LibDems probably come closest to effective opposition. SNP still seems weak post Sturgeon.
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The Israeli government doesn't care about what happens to Iran once the IRGC threat is neutralised by shattering the Iranian state. Netanyahu probably views postwar Iran as a problem for US, China and the EU to fix.
This is not a repeat of American wars in the region.
It's much worse.