kcampbellrisks.bsky.social
Global risk, intel, and security. Certified Protection Professional (CPP), board certified in security management. Certified Business Continuity Professional (CBCP). Student pilot. Former military intel officer. VA Tech & Hopkins SAIS grad. 🚫Forex 🚫Crypto
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Also, the best airmen are airpower pessimists.
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In what other counter-nuclear airstrike has the world seen probably very similar results?
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Not even the U.S. has an unblinking eye there--or anywhere.
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For at least 20+ years, this has always been one of several cons or risks of an attack on any country's WMD program. There might be infrastructure or stockpiles unknown to the attacker.
This is also why airstrikes can never "take out"/"wipe out"/"remove"/destroy/eliminate any WMD program.
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Iran can also simply use info ops or signaling to disrupt, like signaling the laying of mines in the Strait of Hormuz. It could take days/weeks to clear only 1 *suspected* mine in 1 shipping lane in the strait.
7. Non-proliferation has just gotten much more difficult for at least a generation.
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And even if regime overthrow is possible, a regime with chem and bio weapons with nothing to lose...
6. Iran could seek revenge for years, including in any of the 40+ countries (by my count) in which it has used its global terrorist network to plot, attempt, or successfully execute lethal attacks.
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5. Prob the only/main restraint on Iran's retaliation is the theocracy's primary, strategic objective: regime survival. But there are a few reasons why it's wishful thinking--at best--to hope that Iranians can and will overthrow the regime in the near to mid term because of these airstrikes.
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3. Did/do Bibi & Trump wrongly believe that airstrikes, etc., could destroy Iran's nuke program? Or did they methodically and strategically weigh the benefits of 2-3 yrs delay of a non-imminent threat vs the risks?
4. Iran will prob make most/all its nuke program covert, like Iraq after Osirak.
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1. The world is in this situation because Trump pulled out of the JCPOA (nuclear deal signed by Obama) in 2018. And to a lesser extent, because Biden didn't prioritize re-entering the deal.
2. It's impossible to "take out"/"wipe out"/"remove"/destroy/eliminate any WMD program with airstrikes.
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Reminds me of CJCS Colin Powell's conversation, as retold in his autobiography, when the NSC was discussing airstrikes.
An NSC member mentioned the airstrikes would not be an act of war. Powell responded that war is like pregnancy--It's impossible to be half pregnant.
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Indeed.
I'll add a 4th initial reaction: Iran will possibly/is likely to make its nuclear program completely covert, as Iraq did after Israel destroyed its Osrak nuclear reactor in 1981.
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I'm sure 20-something-year-old gardeners and grocery store assistants have tons of transferrable skills to lead the U.S. government interagency that defends against a very well-funded, global terrorist network that has plotted, attempted, and successfully executed lethal attacks in 40+ countries.
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DPRK and others have prob taken note of 4 countries that gave up or halted their nuke weapon programs: Iraq, Libya, Ukraine, and now Iran. All 4 attacked/invaded.
Top leader of 2 of those 4 countries (Iraq & Libya) were executed. The lives of the other 2 leaders (Ukraine & Iran) were threatened.
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Well, based on history......
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Even my 6 years of co-leading and leading intelligence and other highly sensitive projects on Iran is limited. But at least I know that regime change in Iran is unlikely or unrealistic in the near term (and possibly mid term) due to various factors specific to Iran.
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USAF decommissioned F-117 fighters from operations in 2007--18 yrs ago!
And former 3-letter agency folks, who have no Iran or analysis experience, wax poetic that regime change in Iran is now possible.
Reminds me of former law enforcement folks on CNN after 9/11 who had never worked on terrorism.
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Will be interesting when they also realize that after all that bombing and all those raids, they can set back Iran's nuclear program by only 2-3 years.
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Iran's proxy Hezbollah was responsible for these attacks in Argentina. LH almost certainly seeks asymmetric revenge for Israel's crippling attacks against LH last year. The seeds for Iran-LH cooperation on asymmetric revenge are sowed, and LH has substantial infrastructure in South America.
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Iran could eye Israeli (and potentially U.S.) interests in South America for revenge. Two of Iran's most successful asymmetric attacks were in Argentina.
In 1992 the bombing of the Israeli embassy killed 29 people. And in 1994 the bombing of a Jewish Community Center killed 95 people.
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Nothing to see here.
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Case in point: The unintended consequence of Israel's strike on Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981.
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Controlling for the weird use of past tense in the headline, the headline is prob common sense for any current/former intelligence officer or intellectually honest consumer of intelligence who has worked on or consumed intelligence on any authoritarian regime with nascent nuclear capes/ambitions. 🧵
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I would be surprised if they're swept. But considering the limited thickness of pizza boxes, up to 5 rings of concrete corridors, and the considerable standoff distance inherent in the Pentagon's terrible parking (both North and South lots) and Metro stop, that would be mind-boggling bug tech.
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Destruction/elimination of WMD programs requires an invasion or inspection regime that accomplishes the same tasks as an invasion.
Myopic focus on tactical & operational issues like airstrikes, raids, "bunker busters", etc. at the expense of *realistic* strategic objectives leads to failure.
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"Israeli officials fear that if Fordow survives the war, Iran's nuclear program will too."
"The end game for us is simple: no nuke," that official said.
These two quotes are startling and disturbing in their naiveté and ignorance. WMD programs can't be destroyed with only airstrikes and raids.
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This is the lesson countries, especially North Korea and arguably Iran, have learned after watching the Iraq and Libya regimes fall after giving up their nuke programs. The unsophisticated, to include some world leaders, never consider unintended consequences and never think past the next 24 hours.
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Not surprising the "security team" killed a bystander. Only 13% to 35% of rounds cops shoot hit their targets from 0 to 12 ft in real-world shootings. So, cops' rounds miss their targets 65% - ~90% of the time.
Most security teams won't be any better. Regulatory, training, & liability issues here.
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"Army intelligence analysts" and ARTIC need a truck load of clarification. Counterintel and investigation folks (e.g., Army CID) are allowed to see info & intel on U.S. persons. But most reporters don't know that there are STRICT "intel oversight" rules for intel personnel. Nuance here is vital.
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The IAEA reports that Iran has 900 lbs of uranium enriched up to 60%.
U.S. IC: "We continue to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003, though pressure has probably built on him to do so."
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That's inaccurate or at best requires a caveat. Up to at least a few months ago, U.S. IC, as stated in its 2025 Threat Assessment, assesses that Iran isn't building nuclear weapon.
But there's no peaceful purpose for enrichment above 20%, so it's possible Iran is doing "stash and dash".
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This is a perfect summary of everything Iran nuclear for the past 10 years.
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Many Israelis and Americans have learned the wrong lessons of the Osirak strike, and it's bizarrely used as a reference to justify a strike on Iran's nuke program.
I wouldn't be surprised if Iran now goes from "stash and dash" (prep for nuke weapon dev) to just "dash" (outright nuke weapon dev).
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Iraq's nuke program was overt (prob because, again, Osirak wasn't capable of being used for weapon purposes). Israel's strike led Saddam to create a covert nuclear program. The world found out only during the U.N. inspection regime after the first Gulf War.
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Best historical reference is Iraq's actions after Israel's ill-advised destruction of Iraq's Osirak nuke reactor in 1981. Bad Israeli intel--Osirak wasn't couldn't make weapon-grade material. And the strike was tactical & operational brilliance but strategic buffoonery (there are 3 levels of war).🧵
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Expect Iran to continue to target "anti-Iran" activists in various countries. Its persistence and planning with its other assassination plots are indicators.
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bsky.app/profile/kcam...
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Based on my experience as a U.S. intelligence officer who led a couple Iran projects at the highest classification levels, I assess that Iran will almost certainly continue to plot the killing of former Trump NSC officials who worked on Iran issues, in addition to activists such as Masih Alinejad.