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matejrisko.bsky.social
Researcher, focus on Nukes | Missiles | Deterrence | Strategy & Planning | War & International Security | Air Power | Wargames | Strictly personal views, Usual Cavetas Igitur qui desiderat pacem praeparet bellum
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Wrong is right (1982) Kiss me deadly (1955) I'll Wake Up and Scald Myself with Tea (1977)

Agree. Also wish more scholars focused on military adaptation (in conflict) as opposed to innovation, which overwhelmingly focuses on materiel versus training, education, organization, doctrine…. You “go to war with the army you have.” It shouldn’t be the same army in year 2, unless you like dying

❗ #NavalNews #Submarines 1/2 "Rubin" Central Design Bureau is preparing a project to turn the Project 941UM Akula/TYPHOON-class SSBN "Dmitry Donskoy" (TK-208) into a museum boat. Source: tass.ru/armiya-i-opk... FYI @covertshores.bsky.social @alxluck.bsky.social @mikeplunkett.bsky.social

Yes, the Patriot battery on operational alert only turns the radar on when it receives advance warning.

Also remember that the US and Israel haven't attained their objectives (end of Iranian nuclear programme/regime change).

These are btw already responsible for majority of interceptions.

Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures. 🧵 1/17

So 14 MOPs used and only 6 confirmed hits against Fordow. That would mean 8 expended on Natanz which makes sense as it poses a size problem vs Fordow.

Helpful thread. The academic literature started with "why do states get the bomb" and shifted to "why don't more states have them" and I think the new question is "do those previous explanations still hold"

Me the pretty much whole summer :/

I feel some nostalgia for Shahabs, due to the fact that they're actually (iteration of) Scuds, but the Scud-level accuracy makes them completely unusable with conventional payloads. Unless the intention is just to spread terror. You will never hit what you want. 1/2

No The protection of innocent lives depends on our ability to raise the costs of invasion in the eyes of the invader so that they far outweigh the benefits and deter them from doing so. Yes, by slowing down the advance and restricting freedom of movement, for example. Via mines.

Never been into them but hey, what they did to my boys😭😭😭

“Rather than continuing to hedge and hope, Europe needs to pay more attention to the administration’s actions versus its rhetoric, and plan for a future with sharply reduced U.S. military support.”

My reading is that Israel won’t agree. Control of the non-proliferation regime itself would be quite simple, that’s not a problem. The problem is different. If the regime is maintained it is still a regime that is extremist theocracy and calls for the annihilation of Israel,.. 1/4

Interesting article “They’re especially powerful when exploring so-called “wicked problems”…in a simulated environment where they (wargamers) grapple with the complexities of warfare…” Well yes, but it has limits. And I’m uncritical advocate of wargaming.

What happens when a wargame becomes more about the technology than the strategy? warontherocks.com/20...

I would just like to say here that although people in military affairs find current events very intellectually stimulating (I do), telling the nearly ten million people living in Tehran to leave and counter-cities campaigning is not cool… 1/2

Allegedly (based on the last reports): slightly lesser than 100 fired up to 10 impacts (maybe it will turn out a few more), 7 confirmed 50 impacts would be okay, another great night for ballistic missile defence.

This is a fight with hydra.The way they dismantled command and control is unbelievable,Iran's GBAD assets and TELs were completely paralysed.The scale and timing points to a combination of kinetic and probably cyber measures (besides just Adirs doing electronic warfare). Incredible good from mil POV

No, it is virtually impossible and out of the questions and it doesn’t make any sense. You cannot just swap propellant for explosives,not to mention the fact that Jerichos are very scarce assets. Even adding more payload would change all ballistic characteristics and we don’t even know Jericho’s CEP

A little fella turned one year ereyesterday

This is almost grown-in-a-lab bespoke levels of how to cause a major diplomatic crisis with several allies bsky.app/profile/john...

Just wanna say here that if the reports about the A2A kill (and Saab 340) are true it means that Ukraine already operates Link-16 protocol. Information that UKRAF aircraft will be equipped with CRC system interface has been around for a long time,.. 1/4

The UK Government has now confirmed the aim to buy F-35A jets as part of "a shift to a new mix of F35Bs and F35As” to support NATO’s nuclear sharing mission. ukdefencejournal.org.uk/uk-confirms-...

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has issued a stark warning that Russia may be ready to launch military action against the Alliance within five years, calling for industrial mobilisation to avert future conflict. ukdefencejournal.org.uk/russia-could...

The whole INF story takes on a different dimension when you realise that there’s an extensive testing cycle before the weapon system is fully operational. From CDR to the deliveries to units for testing to achieving full operational capability/readiness. This process takes a long time.