nathanpmyoung.com
forecasting. relaxing. doing good.
Upper case tweets are carefully written.
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rules.house.gov/sites/evo-s...
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vadosware.io/post/why-do...
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Enjoyed this, wouldn't have seen it if I hadn't been on bluesky
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Post:
forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/LKdwF...
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Let's wait a year
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This seems exactly the kind of thing that people on this site would want to believe, but it seems too early to say to me.
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I have played much more mtg than pokemon.
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polymarket.com/event/will-...
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I don't know whether or how much it has improved the countries it works with but it seems like on many metrics, Britain improved after Tony Blair was in power. So he probably has something to say to other countries. Also, the TBI is large and well-staffed.
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He didn't have to, he could have just had like a nice chill time, but instead he decided to get in the muck, be accused of working with bad regimes, but hopefully improve entire countries.
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Sure, people hate the Iraq war, but I think they also hate that Blair considers himself to be capable of solving other people's problems.
I like him for taking responsibility.
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Bill Clinton's foundation works on AIDS and that seems pretty tractable and at scale as well.
But other than that, this seems much higher priority than the work that Obama's foundation does, or indeed that like many liberal leaders go on to do.
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What is a higher priority than the poverty caused by poorly governed nations?
AI, animal welfare and perhaps poverty from a mitigation rather than governance lens.
It doesn't seem crazy to me that Tony Blair should work on governance. And the Institute does work on AI as well.
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Thank you @BillGates @melindagates @WarrenBuffett and @gatesfoundation for their work over the years.
This is what being wealthy should be about. Giving it away.
The blog is worth a read.
www.gatesfoundation.org/ideas/artic...
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I think this is bloody impressive from Gates and an inspiration. We should honour wealthy people who give away money effectively.
It annoys me no end that rich lists don't count money donated. If Gates had not given so much away he might literally be top right now.
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Gates then talks about his inspirations.
Moving if you like that kind of thing.
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Gates is right to say this. Even if the Gates Foundation spent $20bn on aid, this would be a fraction of what Governments spend.
And so recent cuts are going to be a huge deal, even if @gatesfoundation doubles its spending.
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That's the end of the goals section.
Next, Gates says he needs governments.
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I ask:
Why aren't countries catching the US?
A few countries (China, Korea, Taiwan, etc) are getting rich faster, but most countries are in the same place compared to the US as 60 yrs ago.
Catch-up growth doesn't predict this, and its very bad news.
Why?!
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Next he discusses improving the efficiency of smallholder farms.
I'm not assuming that Gates makes this error, but many overrate smallholders. To me it seems wealth happens by mechanising farming and people finding other jobs.
ourworldindata.org/smallholder...
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Gates talks about education in the US. To me this seems a less effective angle than he might have chosen - it's just so much more expensive to help the US than Africa.
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3 Reducing poverty
To me this is important, but vague. Large organisations seem much better at specific goals. What would good look like here?
I don't see clear numbers.
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I like that Gates is taking ownership of these problems with his significant wealth. This is praiseworthy, and in my mind counts very positively against other flaws Bill may possess.
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We have made big progress on malaria in the last 20 years, but we've seen an uptick recently and that's before the USAID cuts, which I guess will further affect this.
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Here are where polio/Guinea worm are eliminated (blues) or affected/endemic(reds).
(All the graphs in this thread aren't from the original article)
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2 Eradicate diseases
Gates talks confidently about polio and Guinea worm and slightly less confidently about malaria and measles.
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We know how to reduce child mortality. This is widely agreed to be good. Great goal.
Here is some context, from @OurWorldInData
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I like clear goals, and the Gates Foundation has two goals (and one vaguer one).
1: Reduce child mortality.
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This is a graph of their spending from 2000 to 2021 (from an older article)
To spend $200bn over the next 20 years, @gatesfoundation will have to continue upping their spending per year, especially since Gates' wealth will increase with the likely AI boom.
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The blog is titled:
"My new deadline: 20 years to give away virtually all my wealth"
@billgates need not have said this so clearly.
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marginalrevolution.com/marginalrev...
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rickiheicklen.com/unparallele...
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I will give these fox cubs more attention this year than entire countries. Personally I think that's an error, but it's surely notable.
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@OpenAI are welcome to disagree with me, but they need to make the case. Until then, I'll say that to me, this looks like gaslighting on an industrial scale.
At your and my expense.
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Sources:
[1] gwern.net/doc/reinfor...
[2] www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
[3] finance.yahoo.com/news/micros...
[4] gwern.net/doc/reinfor...
[5] time.com/7279977/ope...
[6] storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.u...
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And don't just take my word for it. Here are a set of legal scholars including two Nobel Laureates. What is going on here seems wrong to them too.
notforprivategain.org/
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I cannot understand @OpenAI's case here. Maybe they have one. But they do actually have to make it.
Why is the nonprofit strengthened by losing control of the asset most closely related to its purpose? What use is mere money compared to that?
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Isn't this just @elonmusk and @sama fighting it out?
No. Employees have gone on the legal record saying that they joined the company because of these promises[6].