oldsovetlog.bsky.social
I study (agrarian) politics in the former Soviet states.
Long-term policy advisor in Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Tajikistan. Resident director of 5 USAID-funded projects.
Democratic institutions are hard to build and keep.
Berkeley PolSci PhD eons ago.
1,056 posts
600 followers
1,218 following
Prolific Poster
Conversation Starter
comment in response to
post
TY!
comment in response to
post
TY!
comment in response to
post
I remember the controversy. It was an outrage at the time, something unfortunately common for city stadium deals.
comment in response to
post
Today at Home Depot Sunset Blvd.
comment in response to
post
With respect, must disagree. He sees Bordello Force One fine. Granted, he doesn’t get what’s special about Air Force One, though.
comment in response to
post
No, you’re not alone. I’m the same.
comment in response to
post
When that’s the likely “best” outcome for the US, the world and the US really are deep in excrement.
comment in response to
post
Source link gives a 404 error.
comment in response to
post
But of course there is one. The Iranian people have a bad regime, but it is theirs. All the other cases indicate that once the US is committed to open co-belligerency, it will fight a long, draining and inconclusive war.
These points should be obvious. I fear they are not.
comment in response to
post
Trump is unlikely to consciously see a downside. He doesn’t care about the death and destruction his toys cause, and the damage will be “over there” somewhere.
comment in response to
post
(MAGA and Putinism have been moving in parallel on restricting women’s and LGBTQ+ rights, maintaining patriarchy and white supremacy, and making wealth depend on the whim and largesse of the leader. There appears to be a lot of cross-pollination between the two systems.)
comment in response to
post
So we see why, following the Putinist model, Trump is likely to think committing forces to regime change in Iran is a good idea. He can use it to finish tearing up the Constitution and establishing the Trump dynasty in a white-male-ruled Christian America.
comment in response to
post
In both the US and Russia, arbitrary executive power grew at the expense of the legislature, local government and especially citizens’ rights. This growth of an autocratic presidency is especially clear in Putin’s Russia since 2014, but it has occurred in the US as well.
comment in response to
post
All three wars affected the invader’s politics and society as much (albeit not so far at the cost of as much blood and physical ruin) as they did the country where forcible change was intended.
comment in response to
post
In Ukraine, a pro-Russian semi-authoritarian one tied to Russia’s patrimonial capitalist economy.
In all three cases the expected outcome was not achieved and the invader became bogged down in a costly, long conflict with no clear endgame except “declare victory” and leave in defeat.
comment in response to
post
In all three cases the attacking power expected a quick strike would overturn what it viewed as an unpopular, illegitimate regime, after which “good guys” would emerge from the woodwork and set up a regime to the invaders’ liking. In Iraq and Afghanistan, a US-model democratic market economy;
comment in response to
post
I have some “field” experience of Iraq, have studied and lived in Ukraine, and remain proud of the fact that when asked to speak at a panel on the Soviet invasion in 1980, my main point was that people should worry about the consequences after the USSR was defeated.
comment in response to
post
Rational Actor Model FTW 🙃