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oldsovetlog.bsky.social
I study (agrarian) politics in the former Soviet states. Long-term policy advisor in Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Tajikistan. Resident director of 5 USAID-funded projects. Democratic institutions are hard to build and keep. Berkeley PolSci PhD eons ago.
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⚡️Russia's war-fueled economy is running on empty, Central Bank chief warns. "We grew for two years at a fairly high pace because free resources were activated," Russia's Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said.

I’m worried for a future where it becomes increasingly common for merchant ships to not have a flag state, meaningful insurance, and generally not abide by international laws or norms. I cannot fully grasp the implications, but it’s not good.

Day 1213 but also Day 4138 of Russia's war in Ukraine. Today marks 11 years and 4 months to the day since Russia subsequently admitted starting the invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine. All the🇺🇦 news, all the time, every single day. Welcome to Friday's Daily Thread.

The New York Times covers trans issues the way Fox News covers ICE protests. Both lead the country to believe there is a conflagration by highlighting a few fires over and over, while ignoring the fact that most people just want to live their lives without the government in their faces.

On 6 June 2025, a symbolic partnership was signed in Kyiv between Amiens Métropole, the hometown of the President of the Republic, and Kryvyi Rih, the hometown of President Zelenskyy.

During his first term, Trump managed to constantly make himself the center of attention in the US. Now, with some help from his “friends,” he’s mastered using the same techniques to be the center of world attention.

Just some creepy armed Mad Max guys trying to gain entry to Dodgers Stadium. ICE says it wasn’t them. DHS says they were Border Patrol. But honestly who the hell knows? They’ve given permission for any psycho to put on a ski mask, point a gun, grab people & throw them into an unmarked vehicle.

Tapping the sign again. Disbanding USAID has been a death sentence for hundreds of thousands of people, including children now born with HIV because their mothers’ medication got cut off suddenly. It’s been an unfathomably cruel, inhumane policy decision.

if you don’t know the history of Dodger Stadium you can’t fully understand what unfolded today. thanks @chrislhayes.bsky.social for the opportunity to share it.

I assure you, none of them are mine.

I was wondering if we were going to get through the day without Trump complaining about Juneteenth (which is also my daughter’s birthday). Trump, of course, takes a day off whenever he wants. But he surely thinks the June federal holiday should be Trump’s birthday. Much more important to his GOP.

thinking about the USCT's medal uses probably the most badass latin phrase. Ferro iis libertas perveniet "Freedom Will be Theirs by the Sword"

That white women enslavers weren’t just as, if not more, brutal & complicit in chattel slavery. (There were legal maneuvers to ensure the only “property” white women inherited were the family slaves.)

Trump is in some ways a villain from a fairy tale. You have make yourself grotesque in some way to serve him. For men, he emasculates you and makes you a servile dog, taking a picture of himself with you where he smirks and you look sunk. for women, he mutilates your face

Chatbots — LLMs — do not know facts and are not designed to be able to accurately answer factual questions. They are designed to find and mimic patterns of words, probabilistically. When they’re “right” it’s because correct things are often written down, so those patterns are frequent. That’s all.

Zelensky has said seeing as Donald won't send Ukraine weapons, can he at least give Russia SpaceX rockets instead.

Stopping Russian construction of the Bushere nuclear power plant was a loud objective of US policy for at least a decade. Bombing it seems bad for multiple reasons, though.

Outrageous seems too nice at this point.

Undocumented immigrants can't vote. They don't vote for Democrats because they can't vote. Democrats don't look the other way to let them into the country for votes, because, again: they can't vote. If you are a news org and people tell you otherwise, it's a lie, and you should call it that.

At this point observers say the only thing holding Trump back from launching an attack on the Iran is concern that US technology isn't up to the job and that it will fail to eliminate the nuclear sites. Trump is said to be fearful of being seen as impotent in the eyes of the world.

Former Californian here who STILL managed to give himself heatstroke in a German summer. This is good advice.

Also heatwave in the Eastern US and I used to live in Las Vegas and this thread is excellent advice. I'd add: synthetics are fine if they are technical fabrics If you must go outside cover your body. Sunshirts and hats work. Also drink some /more/ water. And get some electrolytes in there.

AFAIK, Trump still hasn’t decided whether or not to commit US forces to openly join Israel’s attack on Iran. But I wake up this AM thinking about the three post-2003 cases of regime-change wars of choice we all know about: Afghanistan, Iraq and Ukraine.

Outrageous: ICE agents arrested a former U.S. Army interpreter who risked his life aiding American troops in Afghanistan, right after his asylum hearing in San Diego. The interpreter legally entered the U.S. after the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Nothing is a distraction when every Trump/Republican action is fascism in motion. 🤬

20-year-old U.S. citizen Adrian Andrew Martinez was swarmed by ICE in Pico Rivera while defending someone. He never hit back—just struggled—before being slammed into a CBP van. No records. No lawyer. His mom can’t find him. This is abuse of power. Keep recording. Don’t stop.

I’m not sure I would ask them that. I suspect I know their answer, and I don’t want my suspicion confirmed.

2025 Levada Institute poll in Russia asking for the greatest person of all time and all peoples. Open-ended (name your own). Only non-Russians are Einstein and Newton. Brezhnev is on the list, but not Sakharov. Stalin first, Putin second. (Trump will be jealous.)

The Times reports that NATO changed the format of President Zelensky’s participation at the summit in The Hague because of Trump. www.thetimes.com/article/83cc...

The TL;DR on Whiskey Pete's testimony before SASC: He admitted he was switching the names of bases back to honor traitors. Markwayne Mullin basically said the invasion of CA is revenge for integration. Whiskey Pete defended promoting an antisemite to be DOD spox.

🧵IR scholars, let's start a thread of what we know that's relevant for a US attack on Iran. Won't change any minds, but might help us teach this crisis and learn new angles. Please add (incl. your own work!), forgive/correct omissions. Nobody can cover everything and it's great to find new work. 1/?

Surprise! Yes, this is a new article as of the moment I’m reposting it. I had to check the date, though.