rislandr.bsky.social
EU Reestablishment Treaty | United Federation of Europe | Land Value Tax | Metropolitan Development | Geopolitical Engineering | Native Woodland | Social Media Regulation | Secondary Sanctions
𝑆𝑖 𝑣𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑎 𝑏𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑢𝑚
https://mastodon.social/@rislandr
823 posts
147 followers
814 following
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Also, I suggest watching the following talk by @eliothiggins.bsky.social which helped me to understand what's happening:
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I remember my friend's dad as a respectable, upstanding member of the community.
The following 🧵 addresses this very well:
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There are much greater differences than that.
Please read the thread below and watch the following talk by @eliothiggins.bsky.social at the Cambridge Disinformation Summit:
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As Putin is trying to recreate imperial Russia, Musk Sr must be referring to the Roman Empire, not the Roman Republic.
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Disrupting, but not eliminating, external actors (influence & engagement) doesn't entirely solve the problem.
Irrecoverable "true believers" and new "self-interested actors" would persist and continue to act independently, but it's a start.
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Fascinating to explore these unlikely possibilities alright. If anything, it helps to understand and frame the related issues more clearly.
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It's a stretch, but hey, why not! The interpretation of "European" re EU membership is political.
Looking at a 3D globe (no Mercator distortions), Canada's location relative to Europe is more reasonable, just beyond Iceland.
AU, NZ are too far, and that "killer argument" doesn't hold for republics
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In that case, it’s amazing how the share prices of Cameco and some other companies in the sector have performed:
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I just took the stats from Le Monde:
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Yes, I was just covering the biggest suppliers there.
Mentioned Canada in the following, along with an associated risk:
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Full thread:
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The absence of giant European social media companies is an advantage. They have not achieved institutional capture here.
The EU can be sovereign in the digital realm if it chooses to exercise control within its jurisdiction.
(add regulation of algorithmic recommendations to the proposal below):
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In the short term, we need drastic action.
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Absolutely, education is the most effective approach to address the collapse in shared epistemic standards, but do we have enough time?
Education is a long term measure.
Next up is Czechia in October, later this year, and it doesn't look good.
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Altogether,Russia’s economic position remains constrained but not collapsing. The Kremlin may seek sanctions relief but unlikely to make meaningful concessions based on economic pressure alone (as evident in the Kremlin’s recent diplomatic behavior).
www.csis.org/analysis/rus...
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You mention secondary sanctions in your report.
How much would change if the EU were to apply secondary sanctions on any company or country doing business with Russia?
We could make an example of a smaller country like the UAE which facilitates Russia by allowing it to avail of financial services.
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The report also highlights how secondary sanctions would significantly change the situation.
Russia’s war threatens Europe more than the US. Given all the existential rhetoric, I don’t understand why the EU doesn’t apply secondary sanctions on any company or country that does business with Russia.
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I'd still make your keynote talk at the Cambridge Disinformation Summit obligatory viewing for policymakers!
8/8
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If this were epidemiology, it would be akin to public health policy vs the immediate need for a miracle vaccine.
I'm looking, perhaps naively, for the miracle vaccine - some short term policy that will at least tide us over until education inoculates enough of the population.
7/8
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The "true believers" may be irrecoverable, but hopefully the realities of daily life (time, money, health, etc) might eventually overcome the influence of diminishing levels of disinformation and malinformation due to there being fewer agents and drivers, forcing them to disengage.
6/8
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By eliminating some official foreign & proxy actors and controlling some structural & technological drivers via regulatory control, disordered discourse might diminish.
More comprehensive action might work, even in the short term, compared to limited counter-disinformation or fact-checking.
5/8
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From an EU perspective, the unanimity requirement for CFSP votes means each general election in member states is almost existential, as Orban has unfortunately demonstrated.
I hope we get to see the fruits of better eduction policy re disordered discourse, but I fear we don't have enough time.
4/8
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At Leiden, you also mentioned your hopes regarding the mid term elections in the US (if there are elections). I'm focused on a similarly short time-frame due to the constraints imposed by the electoral calendar.
Next up is Czechia in October, later this year, and it doesn't look good.
3/8
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I must admit, the Q&A session at Leiden University had some uncomfortable truths:
"Once people cross that threshold, it's very difficult to get them back", and
"The approach since 2016 has been to fact-check our way out of this problem, and that does not work"
It's worryingly undeniable.
2/8
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Thanks for the great feedback! There are indeed new, decentralised actors with vested interests and "true believers" that are irreversibly converted, independent of Russian or Chinese information warfare.
You're right to focus on education to address the collapse in shared epistemic standards.
1/8
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Thanks for the pointers, and for chipping in. Very informative!
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The narrative was the focus of my thread. The French didn’t do themselves any favours in terms of an element of arrogance, but this was exploited masterfully by Russian information warfare operatives.
Don’t give Russia any opportunity to control the narrative, because they are experts at it.
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Interesting. Thanks for pointing that out.
Mongolia suffers the same risks as Central Asia, though. Plus, it’s wedged in between Russia and China and is easily coerced by either.
If I were a French energy policy maker, I wouldn’t be very comfortable with that. Probably few attractive alternatives.
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True, Orano would have delayed investments until ore prices increased… In the past 5 years prices more than doubled, but yeah, other locations are probably more attractive especially those without jihadist terrorism.
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The issue is long term security of supply. Having to import via Suez or from Central Asia where Russia throws its weight around is problematic. Australia is too far. Canada is an option... as long as it doesn't become the 51st state... and I'm only half joking.
So that leaves... Namibia?
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Mongolia? You mean to develop new mines?
Most of France's demand is for civilian nuclear power (highest % of any country).
"Over the last ten years, the 88,200 tonnes of natural uranium imported into France came mainly from three countries: Kazakhstan (27%), Niger (20%), and Uzbekistan (19%)"
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I don't know much about how effective or useful each military base was, however, what you say sounds reasonable.
Nevertheless, the departure of the French was not voluntary. They may have inadvertently done the French a favour by expelling them, but I think intent is important.
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Thanks for the clarification about that, although, at the risk of over-simplifying, wasn't it Western interests out, Russia & China in?
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The most serious consequence of unilaterally reestablishing the EU would be legal uncertainty, but a clear declaration of acceptance of all EU responsibilities and obligations by the EU-25, ex Hungary and Slovakia, may placate the international community and financial markets.
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Indeed, but if that is the only option that remains, it would be interesting to develop the concept.
Full implementation of TEU Article 7 would probably fail due to a likely Slovak veto. A significant minority of other member states may abstain, but there could be a few other objectors.