thegreasypole.bsky.social
Tories/LePen lost, Trump/Meloni won.
Score against fascism is 2-2 and it’s all to play for in the second half…
90 posts
152 followers
564 following
Regular Contributor
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This is another 3 Tu-95s on top of your estimate from the other day, what caused the update?
Is this being driven by additional images/info? Happy if thats the case.
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Yes, I was thinking the 1400-1600 period in particular is low for this reason. We've probably captured most of the major wars, but "Baron X raiding the villages of Baron Y and killing some peasants over a minor dispute" won't make the cut, let alone "African/Asian/Sth American Baron X/Y equivalents"
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This chart is what you need.
1820 is in a dip between 1800-1850 but even so from 1820 it shows an 80% reduction in conflict deaths from 5 per 100k to 0.5 (from 1800 or 1850 as a start year it'd show a 98% reduction from 30 per 100k to 0.5).
Conflict deaths are lower today than any year after 1400.
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We wern't pretending otherwise. We were saying thats a short term reversal in a long consistent trend of the opposite. Remember the people who pointed at the IPCC chart in 2015 and said "there has been no warming over 2000-2015 as peak temp was in 2000 so global warming stopped". Its the same thing.
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A short term drop over a 14 year period is still consistent with a long term trend over 50-100-150 years of improvement. This is identifying one of the "down wiggles" in that "wiggly line going up". The discussion here is about the logn wiggly line going up.
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So? We were comparing 40-50yrs ago to today, a timescale you said things had got worse over. They hadn't.
Now you want to look over the last 10 yrs. To do so you should first concede the orginal point. Liberalism has improved SoL not only over the anceint period, but the modern period as well.
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No, they still have it better than they did 40-50 years ago. Real Median Incomes are up 30%, and spending on essentials (food, clothing and *housing*) are down about 5-10% from 75-85, increasing disposable income.
Homeownership is also flat over that scale (0% change from 75 and 0.5% up since 85).
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It’s not getting gobbled up by CoL increases. At least basics. Luxuries may be getting more expensive.
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Its not a crime for the exact reason a fine is not the crime of theft, nor prison the crime of kidnapping, nor community service even the crime of Slavery (!). Having laws means having punishments. All punishments are things that, were they not legal punishments, would be crimes.
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No, the prison system in the US is very bad. Thats reality. But you want to lazily skip that case, say "Its a synonym of evil, so were done here", paint disagreement as axionatically evil, throw victims of Slavery under the bus, and all without giving a single shit about the damage this causes.
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Its not a crime. Prisoners since we started "locking them up" instead of "hanging them at Tyburn" have been forced to work, everywhere. I agree we shouldn't. Its a bad idea for lots of reasons. But we shouldn't throw real victims of Slavery under the bus just to lazily make the case in easy mode.
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No, now you're just being obtuse. You understand what I'm saying here, you're just pretending not to do so to try and save face. There is a cost to victims, and to our ability to prevent crimes, if you cheapen the word that describes a crime in order to lazily garner support for your personal views.
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Yes, real genocides like the one in Israel. They get cheapened if you broaden the term Genocide beyond what it is supposed to mean. Victms of Slavery and our ability to prevent Slavery are impacted if you abuse it "to make your posts punchier". Words aren't your own personal rhectorical "easy mode".
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No, you can make them cheap.
If every murder is a "genocide", then real genocides are now "just" as morally abhorrent as murder. The word has been cheapened, to the detriment of people suffering real genocides and our ability to prevent them.
Words don't exist to make your rhetorical life easy.
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I do have some morality. Thats why I'm opposed to making prisoners work.
But that does not make it Slavery. That word means something, and you are abusing it to try and make your point.... minimising the oppression of people who do suffer actual slavery in your haste to feel morally superior.
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So, taking your money off you without your permission is theft. Are fines, theft?
Its not even as if they can't refuse to work, btw. They can. In all but 4 states its voluntary, and in the remaining 4 they simply lose prison privileges if they do not work as they can do for all sorts of reasons.
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Not if its a punsihment for a crime.
Locking people in a room against their will is kidnapping. But prisoners aren't kidnapped. Because they've been convicted of a crime.
Taking money from someone is theft. But if you've been convicted of a crime, its a fine.
Are fines theft? Prisons, kidnapping?
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Thats not true. Slavery is "the ownership of people". People being owned like an object. Prisoners are being punished for crimes a jury of peers found them guilty of. No-one owns them. After their sentence they go home. Calling this slavery minimises the oppression actual enslaved people suffer.
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It may be evil, and I don't support it for all sorts of reasons. Not least it incentivises the prison industry to bang people up, but its not slavery.
It being something we shouldn't do doesn't mean you can apply whatever terms you like to "evil it up a bit" to make your rhetorical job easier.
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Punishment?
If authorised by a court of law with power to do so, after due process, and as punishment for criminal acts that break the democratically derived laws of the land.
It’s not slavery if it’s punishment for a crime. In the same way prison isn’t “kidnapping” if it’s punishment for a crime.
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We need Fourth!
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I remember vividly J6 when it happenned. Looked a serious attempt, and then at some point the camera panned out and I could see it was a smallish crowd. Not nearly enough to even surround the capitol notionally. I knew then they didn't have near enough and they'd have to retreat before nightfall.
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I’ve been following your ongoing battles, and would be sad to see you leave. You’re just talking “straight down the middle” sense so far as I can see.
Tempting as it is to want to battle those that say the most asinine crap… you’ve got to block more.
Don’t let the worst of us run you off bsky.
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Go to United24, you can donate direct to the Ukrainian govt.
u24.gov.ua
Last time I donated there were three options so you could choose which “pot” to donate too…
1) Humanitarian aid
2) Postwar reconstruction
3) Arms and National Defence.
I think they’d appreciate donations today.
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It made No.1 in the UK singles chart, if not the baby name chart.
Have a listen to the song and consider whether some of the lyrics might have *alternate* meanings.
Very cheeky to sneak that into primetime radio at the height of 90s drug paranoia. A generation of British guys view Ebenezer fondly
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Ebenezer Goode rehabilitated it somewhat in the early 90s.
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Like no one really wants to deal with the massive outrage-and-hallucination engine that we’ve hooked our society up to, so it would be really nice to assume Dems can defang it with smart policy positioning or rhetorical positioning or whatever, and win elections anyway. But they just can’t!
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Thanks for the pack, all followed. See you around.
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Well, thanks for pointing me to the NAFO feed. Didn’t know that was there. Drawback of no algo, I guess. Can’t trip over stuff, have to go find it. At least that should plug me into the right guys quickly. Slava Ukraini.
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Where you guys been?
Been waiting for NAFO and OSINT twitter to make it here for nearly a year!
Glad to see the exodus is underway, welcome to the land of milk and honey and Alf sausage.
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Not sure he could do a private contract. But he could officially instruct a govt. employee to do it.
If its done as one of his constitutionally mandated duties, he is absolutely immune. If as one of his other duties, he's presumptively immune. The official would be legally liable, but pardonable.
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"The World Wars"
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Concerning!
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You'll be fine. Should be a good atmosphere, no trouble. A good way to experience english football tbh.
There will be a LOT of heavy swearing in the stands though. F-bombs and C-bombs left, right and centre. Not in an aggressive way, more like "Oh FFS. Our manager is such a stupid c***" way.
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Woo!
I had to check. For totally unrelated reasons I have listened to that song on repeat about 20 times today, and I wasn't sure if it had so burned it into my brain that I was seeing phantoms.
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Please tell me thats meant to be sung to the tune of "A Message To You, Rudy" by The Specials.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cntv...
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Singing the mango song is just as funny when they roll their eyes at you, though.
Especially if you sing it dropping them off at school.
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Welcome aboard.
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Becuse he also draws the principal.
On average, over 20y he's drawing 12k govt pension + 20k direct from principal + 6k interest on principal = 38k
If he modestly increases his contributions with seniority, or saves for 45 years, or just gets a return equal to historic he'll beat that too.
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That means the final 400k figure I gave is 400k in today £/$/Whatevers....and the 40k per year is also in today £/$/Whatevers (assuming the govt. 10k p.a. portion of it continues to be increased with inflation, if not neccessarily with the full triple lock).