warinthefuture.bsky.social
Strategist, Leader & Author | Retd Army Major General | Senior Fellow in Military Studies @LowyInstitute | @CSIS | Modern & Future war studies | Futura Doctrina substack | #BannedInRussia
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5/ You can read the full article at this link:
mickryan.substack.com/p/ceasefire-...
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4/ Finally, I examine what the past 10 days tells us about the Big Four authoritarians, their collaboration and the limits of their partnership - as well as how these limitations could be vulnerabilities targetable by democratic nations.
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3/ I also explore how Putin has used the war in Iran to step up his attacks against Ukraine, particularly air attacks against civilian targets.
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2/ The article also explores some initial lessons from the war in Iran over the past ten days. These include the fallacy of battlefield transparency and the ability to achieve surprise, the vulnerability of modern air defence systems, and how Xi and Putin will learn from this war.
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6/ I conclude with the following questions: At what point can the Israelis say they have achieved their strategic objectives for this war? And what will the security situation in the Middle East look like then?
You can read the full article at this link:
mickryan.substack.com/p/surprises-...
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5/ Surprise is an enduring element of war. The next two weeks could see many surprises. These might include an American decision and strike much earlier than two weeks, a rapid diplomatic decision or Iran striking out at the oil infrastructure of neighbours.
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4/ Given Trump’s propensity to avoid foreign conflicts (in general), any American commitment to offensive operations in Iran is very likely to be limited in scope and time and designed to bring Iran to the negotiating table under conditions very favourable to Israel and America.
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3/ There are an array of advantages and disadvantages for the U.S. administration to consider as it works through its calculus for supporting or not supporting offensive operations against Israel.
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2/ Israel has planned this attack on Iran for a long time. Israel is also likely to have developed what military planners call ‘branch plans’ for if the US intervenes militarily or if the American military doesn’t participate in offensive operations against Iran.
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Probably. Maverick still wept!!
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5/ You can read my assessment of how sub-optimal Iranian learning and adaptation helped pave the way for Israel’s current take down of the Iran’s nuclear program, and possibly the Iranian regime, at this link: mickryan.substack.com/p/what-iran-...
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4/ Over the past few days, the Israeli’s have exploited the Iranians inability to systemically learn and adapt from the very obvious and accessible lessons about leadership vulnerability, air defence, and partner reliability presented in the past year.
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3/ But Iran, through its lack of learning from how Israel destroyed the Iranian proxy forces around Israel, left itself open to the kind of attack that it is now enduring.
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2/ To attack Iran, Israel had to first work its way through proxies closer to Israel, such as Hamas and Hezbollah. At some cost, Israel was able to remove these two organisations as consequential threats, which then left Iran as Israel’s key adversary.
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7/ You can read my full weekly free update at this link:
mickryan.substack.com/p/the-expand...
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6/ Finally, key Pacific news this week has been China deploying 2 aircraft carrier battle groups beyond the first island chain for the first time. The two carrier battle groups, based around the carriers Shandong and Liaoning have been operating to the south west and the south east of Iwo Jima.
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5/ Israel is clearly going to continue hitting Iran for as long as it can to do as much damage as possible to Iran’s nuclear, ballistic missile, drone and other offensive capabilities. As I forecast in my article yesterday, this will be a campaign that is weeks long, not days long.
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4/ Israel has seized control of the airspace over Iran. There are no verified reports of any Israeli aircraft being lost over Iran. The Prime Minister of Israel has threatened that “Israel will strike every site of the ayatollah’s regime.” Israel has broadened its target list in Iran.
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3/ While many are exclusively focused on the Middle East, I encourage my readers to not take their eyes off Ukraine. The Ukrainians continue to defend against Russian ground & aerial onslaughts. They require weapons from the west to continue their defence & our attention and moral support as well.
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2/ In Ukraine, more prisoner swaps, Russian casualties hit one million (Putin does not care), the US to reduce Ukraine aid, and the new commander of the Unmanned Systems Force issues guidance for the strategic development of uncrewed systems war in Ukraine.
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9/ You can read my full assessment at the 24 hour mark of Operation Rising Lion at this link:
mickryan.substack.com/p/rising-lio...
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8/ The 3rd determinant is whether the U.S. is willing to top up Israel’s supplies of munitions. It has in the past.
It is probable that Israel’s attacks may last for weeks not days.
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7/ Finally, how long can Israel sustain operations? This will depend on 3 determinants. First, what are Israel’s strategic and operational objectives in its assault on Iran. A 2nd determinant is the level of stockpiling of munitions, aircraft spare parts and air defence interceptors.
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6/ Israel clearly has the support of America in the conduct of these attacks.
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5/ The U.S. reaction. The social media post by President Trump after the beginning of Israel’s attacks states: "I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to "just do it," but no matter how hard they tried...they just couldn't get it done."
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4/ The longer term reasons are about removing Iranian leaders responsible for development of nuclear weapons and long-range ballistic missiles. Regime change is also one of the objectives of Israel’s campaign against Iran. See Netanyahu's speech about this here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=fO8W...
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3/ Israel’s decapitation operations. Israel targeted multiple military and scientific leaders in the first wave of attacks. Israel’s decapitation operations. There are short-term and long-term reasons for this. First, the immediate desired impact was to degrade strategic decision-making.
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2/ I think these are the key issues, and questions, at the 24 hour mark of the war. I will cover a couple briefly.