Don't believe the polls? You should. They've been pretty accurate in the past three elections open.substack.com/pub/canadian... - ThreadSky

canadianpolling.bsky.social • 4 days ago

Don't believe the polls?

You should. They've been pretty accurate in the past three elections

https://open.substack.com/pub/canadianpolling/p/e-17-do-you-believe-the-polls?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=29wren

Comments

belleuga.bsky.social•4 days ago

And if you don’t, go vote!

trainboy.nyc•3 days ago

So polling is generally accurate but it does slightly underrepresent the two main parties at the expense of smaller ones. Not surprising in a FPTP system.

charlesmyerscough.bsky.social•3 days ago

pretty accurate isn't reassuring...just sayin'

troyliss.bsky.social•4 days ago

In lieu of alt-text, suffice to say that in the last three federal elections, the polling averages were no more than 3% off the actual election results.

literarymuse.bsky.social•3 days ago

pretty sure the cpc are laying the groundworks for a coup with their anti-poll rhetoric. lie to your base the polls are wrong and when the results match the polls, lie to them that the election was rigged, farm their rage and sow distrust about democracy. we've seen this shit already

ghostbeerce.bsky.social•4 days ago

I'll believe the election results, so I will vote.

rhi.party•4 days ago

Whqt I've learned from this is that Tories love to answer polls 1-3% more than Libs

rebeccaonbluesky.bsky.social•4 days ago

Thank you for giving us a rational answer to this irrational question. The real question might be 'Do I like what the polls are telling me?'.

geneanderson.bsky.social•4 days ago

📌

gregradwanski.bsky.social•4 days ago

Clearly, both LPC and CPC overperfored and NDP underperformed in last 3 elections and that's a bad sign for NDP. Looks like low single digit this time around.

richardcampbell.net•4 days ago

No I don’t believe the polls. No way someone so unlikeable as Poilievre and with policies that only help his wealthy corporate supporters will get so many votes.

tazz2023.bsky.social•4 days ago

We all thought that about Trump.In 2016,people laughed at him.I was one of those people who thought that Hillary would win by a landslide.She did win the popular vote,but lost the electoral college(our screwed up system).2024-thought Kamala would win&here we are.....living the American nightmare.

violentlycar.bsky.social•4 days ago

You underestimate how many voters are completely disconnected from politics. There will be a substantial number of people voting this election who have never even heard of Poilievre or Carney.

richardcampbell.net•3 days ago

They are SOOOO lucky!

lauchs.bsky.social•4 days ago

I remember thinking similar about trump, twice.

rjl56.bsky.social•4 days ago

Probably best they don’t know, and the rest of us VOTE !

mkloud.bsky.social•4 days ago

How close were the seat totals, I wonder?

mojo87.bsky.social•4 days ago

Pretty good - here were CBC Poll Tracker's final predictions in the last two elections (other models would probably have similar results):

2021 projection: L 155, C 119, N 32, B 31
2021 result: L 160, C 119, N 24, B32

2019 projection: L 141, C 121, B 39, N34
2019 result: L 157, C121, B 32, N 24

mojo87.bsky.social•4 days ago

They were a bit further off in 2015 (e.g.: see below from Eric Grenier's ThreeHundredEight before he joined CBC!)

But that's largely down to the 3pt polling miss for LPC - that is to say, arguably polls were to blame, not the models :p

sweatgamerepeat.bsky.social•3 days ago

So they generally don’t get the cpc vote by ajout 1-2 points which kinda makes this elections closer than it appears of that holds up right?

lauchs.bsky.social•4 days ago

Worringly, all of them seemed to underestimate conservative support. In a close election with a significant demographic shift (young men to conservatives) I wonder how much larger that miss might be and if it might be enough to flip things...

So, ignore polls and goddamn vote.

mavcolor88.bsky.social•4 days ago

Wait, don't all those polls technically underestimate Liberal support as well? Especially in 2015, where people were much closer to how enthusiastic we are about voting as we are now.

mtvcdm.bsky.social•4 days ago

They also came in low on the Liberals.

We've seen this in US elections when third parties come in: when it gets to be crunch time, if your guy can't win outright, you often lose your nerve and vote strategic at the last minute and the polls miss it.

coxyjindas.bsky.social•4 days ago

To be fair, they underestimate liberal vote too. Margin of error etc, but also some people are more likely to name a third party in a poll but on voting day go with one of the majors.

bluearrowsneo.bsky.social•4 days ago

3%< miss is generally pretty good. They also miss the LPC vote sometimes

The most consistent pattern seems to be overestimating the NDP vote share

jmaltman.bsky.social•4 days ago

It really looks like some PPC leaners go CPC in the end, and some NDP leaners go Lib. Strategic voting in both cases?

bluearrowsneo.bsky.social•4 days ago

Probably + standard polling miss

r3d00c.bsky.social•4 days ago

within the margin of error, and pollsters account for that, that's literally their job, and yes people understand that polling and voting are two different things

lauchs.bsky.social•4 days ago

Within the non published margin of error for an aggregation? That's an... Interesting assumption.

Huge demographic swings make past methodology polling much harder. Response rates, past behaviour, all the essentials of polling could easily manifest in unexpected ways.

Hopefully not but...

houston360.bsky.social•3 days ago

The margin of error is a math formula and with polls of 1000+ which all Canadian polls are, it will be around 3.1%. which means that the numbers have a flex of about 1.5% up or down. Unlike American polling Canadian poll agrigators tend to be very, very accurate

r3d00c.bsky.social•4 days ago

yes, they do all that

canadiansnowflake.bsky.social•3 days ago

Ah yes. The year Trudeau learned about hashtags. Actually anyone but harper seemed to br wholly grassroots but them picking it up certainly helped end the reign of Harper the disaster. And carney ended the reign of trudeuce. Maybe carney can make it a full term without allegations about Panama

canadiansnowflake.bsky.social•3 days ago

Papers. Though frankly rightbnow. I'll take the corruption that is within a box than the corruption who doesn't even understand what a central bank does or why it does it. Give me the central banker in this great time of stupidity, over the trump fan boy nazi photoop guy.

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