The suspension of U.S. assistance for Ukraine is a very unfortunate and significant development, but it may not have immediate impact. Ukraine is far less dependent on the U.S. for day to day battlefield needs in 2025, than it was in earlier periods of the war. 1/ - ThreadSky

michaelkofman.bsky.social • 4 hours ago

The suspension of U.S. assistance for Ukraine is a very unfortunate and significant development, but it may not have immediate impact. Ukraine is far less dependent on the U.S. for day to day battlefield needs in 2025, than it was in earlier periods of the war. 1/

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broce01.bsky.social•2 hours ago

He is actively traitorous by suspending cyber operations monitoring Russia, this is happening now:

https://hartmannreport.com/p/could-russia-win-a-war-against-america?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=275tzu&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

rkbrown2230.bsky.social•4 hours ago

I believe it will be beneficial in the long run. Europe was unwise to depend on the US. Now that the MAGA regime has betrayed the free world, Europe has no choice but to become much stronger militarily - and they will need Ukraine to do that.

davidlewis61.bsky.social•4 hours ago

A rearmed Germany with a hard right party. Hmmm …

karlosrovira.bsky.social•4 hours ago

A nuclear US with a MAGA government... I guess I can live with a strong Germany.

davidlewis61.bsky.social•3 hours ago

Sure, good point. But I was thinking about our 80 years of European peace, and who knows after they've all got more guns (even assuming the demise of the Trump-Putin pact). Back to the European wars of the past? Seems impossible, but who thought we'd be Putin's ally?

karlosrovira.bsky.social•3 hours ago

One deals with problems as they arise. Right now, the biggest threat is the US under Trump.

officialstehee.bsky.social•4 hours ago

A hard right party that only 20% voted for, or more pertinently 80% voted against.

davidlewis61.bsky.social•3 hours ago

Where did Hitler start?

davallone.bsky.social•3 hours ago

Where did he end?

davidlewis61.bsky.social•3 hours ago

What did it take?

emersonr.bsky.social•4 hours ago

Tell me you love history (but only if it's of the 20th Century), without telling me you love history (but only if it's of the 20th Century).

pukolis.bsky.social•3 hours ago

These people have as deep a knowledge of history as those that make french surrendering "jokes"

rawkpork.bsky.social•5 minutes ago

Germany. Far out. To think they could go there again is not to understand what occurred in WW2. WW2 started in Sep 1939. The yanks turned up in Dec 1941. The Germans are going to have to be dragged kicking and screaming into this. They are still navel gazing.

simonwhiteley6.bsky.social•4 hours ago

As opposed to a still fully armed US with a hard right actual government?

dpaxorales.bsky.social•3 hours ago

both u.s. and russia are the real far-right. on the other hand, last time it took both of them to defeat just germany.

davallone.bsky.social•3 hours ago

What else was half the US military doing from 1942 to 1945, with no help from Russia?

History 101, sport. Be smarter.

dpaxorales.bsky.social•3 hours ago

arriving late at the party?

simonwhiteley6.bsky.social•3 hours ago

The US and Soviet Union were also fighting Japan. And both aggressor countries were the most thoroughly militarised countries at the outset.

julibluesky.bsky.social•3 hours ago

sry off topic - but lets lift Ukraine´s spirit up
#Zelensky is a hero, Trump a zero!
https://bsky.app/profile/jinxxpal.bsky.social/post/3ljkqcf7eq22u

clarissaoakes.bsky.social•3 hours ago

Only a matter of time before Musk attempts to interfere with Starlink service provision, so OneWeb ought to be in the mix for satellite comms.

I think 🇺🇦 needs to anticipate Trump/Musk directed hostile behaviour from US providers of kit and services, and adapt in advance.

clarissaoakes.bsky.social•2 hours ago

Ohh, they're already there 🙂 Good.

https://bsky.app/profile/shashj.bsky.social/post/3ljkrfeaq5c2k

ctryoverparty123.bsky.social•3 hours ago

This is what I sent to my senators and representatives: The Democrats MUST display disapproval of Trump! THIS IS OUR SELMA!!!!!!!! You are asking us to display our outrage by putting ourselves in the path of danger. YOU MUST WALK YOUR WALK, NOT TALK THE TALK, too! WALK THIS BRIDGE WITH US!!!!!!

kfpm.bsky.social•3 hours ago

Should tell Trump to stick his minerals deal up his a**

jamescalbraith.co.uk•4 hours ago

Won't the most significant immediate impact be more civilian casualties from RU long range strikes, once Ukraine runs out of countermeasures?

nooboftheyear.bsky.social•1 hour ago

They have developed an air defence missile I heard. Lack of American help should propel them to develop even greater innovations if they also temporarily remove Americans from their systems.

jamescalbraith.co.uk•23 minutes ago

They're getting missiles from UK, too, but every gap in the air defence is more unnecessary deaths - and if Ukraine can produce their own missiles, they'll be using them sparingly to defend the most strategic areas

nooboftheyear.bsky.social•21 minutes ago

I saw the announcement about a month back so it will probably be a few months in setting up lines and then more for production to get them out there.

1836republic.bsky.social•3 hours ago

I thought I read the other day that 1 of the EU countries was opening a shuttered plant to begin supplying 155 shells?

posiejags.bsky.social•4 hours ago

Can't imagine the US king's administration giving any intelligence to Ukraine & not sure the EU is giving the US any substantial intel. But who knows.

laserhundreds.bsky.social•3 hours ago

Now that it's out in the open just how much in cahoots Trump is with Putin, there would surely now be a question mark over the reliability of any intel shared by the US.

sololady.bsky.social•3 hours ago

He's not a king; he only thinks he is.

A lot of US citizens still support Ukraine; we don't take well to bullies.

davemc5192.bsky.social•4 hours ago

Thnx Michael, informative

rhoneyman.bsky.social•4 hours ago

Artillery capacity is growing, mainly through Rheinmetall. But I'm fairly certain other investments are being made in 155 mm shell capacity. Other lower-tech munitions and systems are being brought back online.

rhoneyman.bsky.social•4 hours ago

The biggest hole is with ATACMs and that class of missiles and Patriots. However, Ukraine is close to having functional air-parity, which will help launch a warm weather offensive to disrupt - perhaps massively - Russia's thin lines.

sciurusvulgaris.bsky.social•3 hours ago

And a judge could block it right?

smallhare.bsky.social•3 hours ago

Probably and then what?

sciurusvulgaris.bsky.social•3 hours ago

Just to get the delay

soso008.bsky.social•3 hours ago

The biggest threat is air defense of its people. Trump is helping Putin kill even more civilians and damage even more hospitals, schools and energy grid. That’s how dirty Putin fights. Meat attacks and destruction of civil society.

theoutlier1.bsky.social•4 hours ago

But now Ukraine has to fight US too. I sure hope they are expelling American military. We are the enemy now.

vp68.bsky.social•4 hours ago

Well ya they got the tanks Bradlies f16 air defense just need to re up ammo constantly hopefully Europe can do this because Donald won’t sell to fight Russia, he may even demand some of that back

rhoneyman.bsky.social•4 hours ago

He can demand all he wants.

sololady.bsky.social•3 hours ago

Demand in one hand and shit in the other...

hempshark.bsky.social•3 hours ago

unfortunately no, we rely on US rockets for patriots to defend cities from rusian attacks. so this withhold of aid is a direct threat to civilian lives. don't downplay the problem

michaelkofman.bsky.social•3 hours ago

Please read the whole thread rather than replying to the first post.

hempshark.bsky.social•3 hours ago

if you can't tackle you thought in first post other text is pointless. because as I said before and a repeat again it is a direct threat to our lives here in Ukraine, your government abandoned signed agreements and approved contracts and now you try to downplay this problem.

steenbiilmann.bsky.social•4 hours ago

USA is now actively harming the security and safety of its former allies and friends in Europe. In 1½ month, USA has turned into a member of the axis of evil. In the pocket of Ruzzia. Disgraceful and extremely dangerous. USA is lost for the free world.

michaelkofman.bsky.social•4 hours ago

Ukraine’s current approach to defensive operations combines mines, strike drones, and traditional artillery fires to attrit Russian forces at 0-30km. Most of the casualties are now inflicted with mines, and drones, which are produced in Ukraine. 2/

herefornow02.bsky.social•4 hours ago

But drones without Starlink?

nordiceuropean.bsky.social•4 hours ago

There are other options.

herefornow02.bsky.social•4 hours ago

there are? now?

nordiceuropean.bsky.social•4 hours ago

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/an_alternative_to_starlink_for_ukraine_the_eu_proposes_its_own_solutions-13719.html

and some commercial options:

https://starlinkinsider.com/starlink-competitors/

And Ukrainians have been preparing for this since some time ago: https://en.defence-ua.com/news/are_ukrainian_forces_ready_for_starlink_shutdown_and_is_musk_likely_to_do_it-13602.html

herefornow02.bsky.social•4 hours ago

Good info.
Still I'm worried about that partial and/or temporary loss of capacity.

asazernik.bsky.social•4 hours ago

OneWeb got up and operational in '23 or so. (And is therefore very popular on the stock market right now.)

nordiceuropean.bsky.social•4 hours ago

I'm missing so many opportunities to get rich on this war, damnit.

michaelkofman.bsky.social•4 hours ago

Traditional artillery fires are less relevant at the moment, and there is a relative parity between the two sides. In combination with munitions recently delivered by the U.S. in recent months, which frontloaded supplies, Europeans could sustain Ukraine through this year. 3/

michaelkofman.bsky.social•4 hours ago

However, Ukraine is likely to begin metering fire rates at this point given the uncertainty and therefore Russia will reestablish some degree of fires advantage, but this is no longer decisive, given more than 50% of casualties are inflicted by drones of various types. 4/

michaelkofman.bsky.social•4 hours ago

The issue becomes more problematic when looking at long-range precision strike beyond 30km, here systems like GMLRS are still quite relevant, and interceptors for US provided advanced air defense/missile defense . The impact will be pronounced over time. 5/

upwardfalling13.bsky.social•2 hours ago

Are there any European alternatives to Patriot systems and missiles?

This is what concerns me.

michaelkofman.bsky.social•4 hours ago

Another important area is maintenance, parts, and technical support. Suspension will result in degradation of operational readiness over time. It’s also unclear if the cutoff involves intelligence support, training, and other forms of indirect support. 6/

michaelkofman.bsky.social•4 hours ago

Much depends on the extent Ukraine has been stockpiling munitions/parts and where Europeans can step in, although in some cases they have low inventories, and in others U.S. retains the ability to deny any transfers. The impact will probably be much more visible in a few months. 7/

henryhill1.bsky.social•4 hours ago

The immediate following action of trying to abolish russian sanctions is no coincidence.

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