You're a smart guy, offering a bet you know you cannot lose!
The first three years of the Biden Administration saw 9.5% real growth in per capital GDP (slightly more than 3% per year). The first three years of the first Trump Administration (before Covid hit) produced only a 6.67% rise, or ...
2/ ... about 2.2% per year. The entire 8 years of the Obama administration expansion saw a 19% rise in per capita real income, well less than 3% per year. Sustained 3% increases are hard to come by unless you're starting from an economic trough. We're not in one.
I will start the go fund me for JW if by some stroke of dumb luck these guys preside over anything close to 3% real (are we sure he meant *real*?) growth. BTW, they promised 5% last time, and got 1.6% -- or 2.7% if you use the FoxNews' practice of cherry picking Trump I's best 8 quarters.
Thinking of this in combination with Krugman's recent piece about the real possibility Trump's people start firing the folks with integrity and juicing numbers though.
Pretty sure Justin was serious. I mean, the odds of 3% growth (starting with such low unemployment) are low enough that I'd put a big chunk of my net worth down if someone would take the other side (close to zero chance Bessent takes the other side, I'd guess)
oh i assume that justin would pay if bessent took the bet and justin lost. but i don't think either of those things very likely! and on top of that, unless justin has gotten a lot richer than i think, his losing a billion dollar bet would not lead to a billion dollar payment....
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The first three years of the Biden Administration saw 9.5% real growth in per capital GDP (slightly more than 3% per year). The first three years of the first Trump Administration (before Covid hit) produced only a 6.67% rise, or ...
Very safe bet!
to pay for Tax Cuts for rick.
50 pages of those.