justinwolfers.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

hey guys, just got out of my tiny screws technical training class. anything happen while I was gone?

submitted 13 hours ago • 56 comments

Heparin is just like an iPhone, except it's a bit more compact and you use it to prevent blood clots instead.

submitted 15 hours ago • 14 comments

Just remember, exempting smartphones from China was always the plan.

submitted 16 hours ago • 38 comments

I just want to tip my hat to the crack team of White House economists who were able to discover--in just a few short days--that the U.S. is dependent on China for smartphones, computers and semiconductors.

submitted 17 hours ago • 360 comments

Trump's obsession with bilateral makes no sense, and it's the responsibility of his economic team to explain that to him. (I don't know if they're failing, or not even trying.)

submitted 1 day ago • 17 comments

When you rip up agreements, you make it harder to renegotiate in good faith.

submitted 20 hours ago • 9 comments

Whether you love or hate tariffs, you can't help but be impressed at the detailed policy planning, the transparency of the policy process, the credibility of Administration announcements, relentless attention to detail, flawless execution, and the thoughtful predictability that business demands.

submitted 22 hours ago • 75 comments

Ask yourself: If you wanted to bring manufacturing to the US, would you reduce tariffs on smartphones and computers that are fully made abroad, or cut tariffs on the intermediate inputs used by American manufacturers?

submitted 22 hours ago • 23 comments

Here we go. High tariffs for everyone except those who curry favor with the king. Lesson: It's more important to compete at Mar-a-Lago than in the market.

submitted 22 hours ago • 37 comments

The first step in policy analysis is figuring out what's going wrong. And by my view, we're facing two crises: A tariff crisis, and a crisis of confidence built upon fears incompetence. Let me lay it out, wonk it out and math it out. (I get a bit testy because I think this stuff really matters.)

submitted 2 days ago • 27 comments

We're in that strange parallel universe in which the Trump administration is discovering the value of the Trans Pacific Partnership (which a younger President Trump ripped up).

submitted 1 day ago • 10 comments

Trump's obsession with bilateral makes no sense, and it's the responsibility of his economic team to explain that to him. (I don't know if they're failing, or not even trying.)

submitted 1 day ago • 17 comments

Economics might seem -- from the outside -- like it's about competition. But really it's about creating the miracle of cooperation, where folks from all around the world enrich your day in a million tiny ways. It's that beauty that I'm worried about losing.

submitted 1 day ago • 20 comments

"if you also look at the enormous decline in consumer sentiment, in business optimism, and the enormous extent to which markets have fallen.. I think there's a second crisis: it's a crisis of confidence in the competence of this administration."

submitted 1 day ago • 14 comments

"the overwhelming feeling people have over here is immense uncertainty, and uncertainty is paralyzing for individuals. And when you add that up, it turns out to be paralyzing for economies, too."

submitted 1 day ago • 4 comments

In which I describe slower output growth and higher inflation as "two great flavors at the same time." I do hope my accent didn't obscure my dripping sarcasm.

submitted 1 day ago • 9 comments

It's hard to teach a lot of economics in 60 second TV soundbites, so lemme slow down and explain what's going on in a 25 minute podcast. Forgive me for engaging in international trade and weakening America, as the interview was with the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.

submitted 1 day ago • 14 comments

Average tariff rates, ranked: Bermuda: 30% USA: 25% (ish) Solomon Islands: 21% Cayman Islands: 20% Congo: 18% Equatorial Guinea: 18% Cameroon: 18% Belize: 18% Chad: 17% Gabon: 17% * I don't have an updated estimate for China

submitted 1 day ago • 8 comments

If you find talk of bond and forex markets hard to track, this graph does an amazing job illustrating what's going on.

submitted 1 day ago • 41 comments

Inflation expectations have spiked dramatically.

submitted 1 day ago • 41 comments

Consumer sentiment has never tanked this far, this fast.

submitted 1 day ago • 16 comments

The first step in policy analysis is figuring out what's going wrong. And by my view, we're facing two crises: A tariff crisis, and a crisis of confidence built upon fears incompetence. Let me lay it out, wonk it out and math it out. (I get a bit testy because I think this stuff really matters.)

submitted 2 days ago • 27 comments

"The U.S. is in the middle of two economic crises. One is being caused directly by tariffs. The other is a crisis of confidence being driven by a crisis of competence."

submitted 2 days ago • 18 comments

I know this will surprise folks who bought cars based on promises they'll be self-driving "next year," but he's now admitting that DOGE will only deliver on 7.5% of the promised $2,000b, and even that is only coming "next year." www.nytimes.com/2025/04/10/u...

submitted 2 days ago • 83 comments

"The U.S. is in the middle of two economic crises. One is being caused directly by tariffs. The other is a crisis of confidence being driven by a crisis of competence."

submitted 2 days ago • 18 comments

This is such an important point that I've updated my chart, just for @jasonfurman.bsky.social

submitted 2 days ago • 8 comments

If you've heard talk over recent days about bond market movements really mattering, let me explain what's going on, and why it matters.

submitted 2 days ago • 12 comments

What just happened with the stock market, exactly? Hanna Rosin talks with economist Justin Wolfers about the short- and long-term consequences of an unpredictable market—and why it’s upped the chances for a recession.

submitted 2 days ago • 7 comments

Yesterday's decline in market volatility was short lived. It's volatile volatility.

submitted 2 days ago • 15 comments

Not kidding when I say it's not entirely clear that the Administration knows what current tariff rates are. Apparently the China tariffs were more punitive than the White House led folks to believe yesterday. www.wsj.com/livecoverage...

submitted 2 days ago • 14 comments

This chart was made in America by skilled artisans. It also provides important context for understanding our current tariff situation.

submitted 2 days ago • 43 comments

Moar pessimism.

submitted 2 days ago • 3 comments

Stock market update: Half of yesterday's optimism has been cancelled.

submitted 2 days ago • 7 comments

"this chick who's new for me, i don't her before, but i like her." 😂

submitted 2 days ago • 12 comments

This chart was made in America by skilled artisans. It also provides important context for understanding our current tariff situation.

submitted 2 days ago • 43 comments

We haven't spent enough time thinking through our current tariff madness from the perspective of our allies. So as an Australian-American, lemme don my Akubra and tell you what the Australian side of me sees.

submitted 2 days ago • 16 comments

Treasury Secretary Bessent isn't making sense. And the deeper mistake is the pervasive zero sum thinking throughout top Administration officials. Causing pain for others doesn't imply there's joy for us.

submitted 2 days ago • 38 comments

So that's what a pre-tariff inflation report looks like. Savor that sense of calm, because it's our last one for a while.

submitted 3 days ago • 13 comments

Still trying to figure out what yesterday's tariff news means for you and your life? I sat down with @HannaRosin for an emergency recording of The Atlantic's "Radio Atlantic" podcast. Listen in, and let me know what questions you still want answered. open.spotify.com/episode/4Bks...

submitted 3 days ago • 7 comments

Treasury Secretary says that he and the President have been lying to the voters, markets, and trading partners since Sunday. Credibility is a scarce and valuable asset, and I worry that a Treasury without credibility will be much less effective when a true crisis hits. www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

submitted 3 days ago • 82 comments

The cause of today's big tariff backdown is pretty straightforward: "The president has overplayed his hand quite dramatically."

submitted 3 days ago • 18 comments

Trying to make sense of today's tariff news. There's some big news, some small news, and some easy-to-misinterpret news. So let's chat.

submitted 3 days ago • 15 comments

If this is the effect of walking back some of his economic program, just imagine the prosperity he could unleash if he abandoned all of it!

submitted 3 days ago • 23 comments

Biggest mistakes I'm seeing in early reporting (thread): 1. Tariffmageddon isn't over: Lotsa tariffs to account for, but the average tariff rate is only down around one quarter. So most of the pain of Liberation Day is still with us.

submitted 3 days ago • 172 comments

no pause no pause pause

submitted 3 days ago • 21 comments

The President's tariff announcement just transitioned from incoherent tariff talk rambling racism.

submitted 3 days ago • 15 comments