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justinwolfers.bsky.social
Econ professor at Michigan ● Senior fellow, Brookings and PIIE ● Intro econ textbook author ● Think Like An Economist podcast ● An economist willing to admit that the glass really is half full.
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The best thing about the idea of the DOGE dividend is that it'll force a certain transparency on the process. Look at the size of your dividend check and you'll quickly understand how little Elon is getting done.

DOGE is getting a whole lot of headlines mainly because our brains aren't wired to make sense of millions, billions, or trillions of dollars. Lemme help: Math out the DOGE numbers and you'll discover that your DOGE dividend may buy you a coffee or two. The problem: There's just not that much waste.

A deep dive into DOGE data discovers a disturbing directory of discrepancies, distortions, delusions, and deception. Dismal. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/21/u...

Add up the claimed savings on the DOGE website and (right now )you get $7.19b from contract savings, and $0.14b from real estate, for a total of $7.3b, or $21.47 per American. Trump is talking about giving a "DOGE dividend" of 20% of these savings. Enjoy your $4.29.

"This is what happens when innumeracy hits ambition." President Trump and Elon Musk are touting a new plan to send checks to Americans with the money purportedly saved by DOGE. @justinwolfers.bsky.social breaks down the math.

Add up the claimed savings on the DOGE website and (right now )you get $7.19b from contract savings, and $0.14b from real estate, for a total of $7.3b, or $21.47 per American. Trump is talking about giving a "DOGE dividend" of 20% of these savings. Enjoy your $4.29.

We asked the American people which government agencies DOGE should target.

My coding warriors have been hard at work crunching the numbers for the sake of our country.

Rising disapproval suggests that perhaps this isn't what folks were voting for.

"The White House did not respond to questions asking how to reconcile Mr. Musk’s numbers with the S.S.A.’s own public data. "

I don't think they're doing all they can to reduce egg prices.

Cost-minimizing ≠ Efficient

If you wanted to cut waste, fraud, and abuse, you would empower the inspectors general. If you wanted more waste, fraud, and abuse, you would fire them.

One thing I've learned to do when I have questions about social security number holders who are age 100 or older is to look up the SSA Inspector General audit report, "Numberholders Age 100 or Older Who Did Not Have Death Information on the Numident." t.co/AdWTV8eIPV

So, lemme 'splain why this is nonsense...

Unsettlingly on point.

You don't need to be a coder to figure this out. Simply type: tab age You'll discover a smattering of 99 year olds, a few 100 year olds, a couple of 101 year olds, and a pileup of 150 year olds, but no-one in their 130s or 140s. That's a clear sign you've discovered a coding issue rather than fraud

“Sources told CNN the officials did not seem to know this agency oversees America’s nuclear weapons.” www.cnn.com/2025/02/14/c...

thinking face emoji

Vance is threatening to isolate Russia from the global economy and Trump is promising to isolate the United States from the global economy.

They promised grocery prices would fall. I told you they were lying. Now they're either not talking about grocery prices, or “softening” their tone. Lemme translate: Grocery prices aren't coming down. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/12/b...

The 2018 steel tariffs just called to remind you that steel is produced by a tiny sliver of the economy, but used as an input by a much broader swathe of manufacturers. https://buff.ly/42ReSrr

Trump's tariff-for-tax cut swap is very cleverly disguised populist policy that sounds like it's all about beating up on China to help American workers. The reality is that it's about tax cuts for the rich, paid for by import taxes on the American working and middle class.

Let's do a little bit of arithmetic and it'll become immediately clear why Trump's tariffs can't pay for big income tax cuts.

"It's a funny thing... Trump's tariffs are meant to prevent stuff coming from China into the U.S. and then China to retaliate is preventing stuff coming from China into the U.S."

I'm optimistic about the U.S. economy, but have this one gnawing (and growing) concern... https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/07/business/economy/jobs-federal-reserve-interest-rates.html

When you talk about instituting policies that raise prices, don't be surprised if it leads people to worry that price rises are coming. And the Fed's going to worry that these expectations become self-fulfilling.

This is an astonishing (and beautiful) fact, and we really ought to celebrate it. The labor market is in very good shape, and continuing to improve. If the economy continues its momentum (a big if, to be sure), the unemployment rate isn't far from returning to its fifty year low.

It looks like a largely as-expected jobs report: - Payrolls rose +143k (compared to expectations of +175k) - Unemployment was 4.0%, down from 4.1% (although due to technical issues, it's like the unemployment rate fell -0.2%)

Here's the rules of Jobs Day: The official numbers are going to come out, and they're not corrupt, made up, or fiddled with. Be extra careful today: Every January jobs day brings a slew of important annual revisions, and they make the numbers extra difficult to interpret.