We have a little stashed, but i feel so uneasy...I kind of want to keep just enough in the bank to cover bills and such and bury the rest in my back yard, but also not...
I don't see actual synchronization, but I see a change in yields when the extent of damage to the US economy [in addition to the pre-existing decay] becomes visible.
Does he even know how to spell his own name? I look at that and I can’t see a D,or an o, or an a, or an n, or a d, or a J, or an h, or a T, or an r, or an m, or a p. Can any of YOU? It just looks like he flunked a polygraph. 😏
Yes, better return for new issues (nominal). But your real return (nominal- inflation) is eaten by the dollar sinking, and the bonds you currently hold are worth less.
just to confirm:
there's inflation -- like from the tariffs -- which erodes the nominal value of the higher yields [a widget from France now costs me minimum 10% more]
but there's also the dollar sinking [my dollars to buy the widget are less valuable against the franc]
Not sure how to answer but I think you are on the right track. The crux here is that usually higher interest rates and higher new issue bond yields would strengthen the dollar. We have a weakening dollar, and low demand for our treasury bonds. Major tool to fight inflation is broken. It’s a mess.
Bond prices fall= So does the Dollar. So do stocks. Buying a house or financing a business will be to expensive.
Servicing US debt will be impossible. The economy fails. This usually happens in emerging markets.
Trump has the economical IQ of a goldfish.
Yet here we are.
Should be interesting to see how they spin this. First though, he will task someone with "fixing" - an impossible job. Bombing Iran in a few months will distract Americans for awhile. but global economics is another story. Will cash flush Saudis swoop in to save him?
There is no easy fix. Foreigners hold about 8.5 Trillion in US debt. Total US debt is about 36 Trillion. As long as the foreigners keep selling (steady) Donny has a huge unfixable problem.
Liz Truss comes to mind.
And bombing...costs a lot of money.
Wars are won by the better economy (and logistics)
Trump? His reflex will be to blame the Fed and J. Powell. We haven't seen much sign of this since the late 1970s, when Paul Volker raised interest rates. Trump will not tolerate a Paul Volker or a sane Fed Chair.
He keeps talking about “all the beautiful companies that are coming to do business in our country”. Uh huh. Taiwan is the only one I know of. They are trying to secure their safety by hooking their chip wagon to us. But, we know what Krasnov would do. 🤮🤬🤬🤬
Disconnecting these two things is quite a feat.
Their correlation is, in most cases, basic economics.
Breaking it requires steering the ship in the absolutely opposite direction of where you want to go.
Where did you pull it from, so we can continue to follow it. (You know it's not going to get any better; and WE ALL need to be accumulating data, facts to use in the next elections against every rebumplican running for re-election.)
EVERYONE: COLLECT INFORMATION, EVERY DAY. WE WILL NEED IT!
Since “liberation day” (Trump’s trade war escalation), yields have surged while the dollar has dropped hard. That’s not supposed to happen. When 10-year Treasury yields rise (blue line), it usually means investors are demanding higher returns, which attracts foreign capital.
The U.S. is still raising rates, but it's not attracting trust — and that's dangerous. It could mean global capital is preparing for a post-dollar world.
Higher borrowing costs + weaker currency = stagflation risk — rising yields usually help tame inflation by strengthening the dollar.
But if the dollar is dropping instead, inflation could stay hot while growth slows.
Flight to safety elsewhere — investors are dumping dollars and not moving into U.S. assets. Loss of faith in the dollar as a safe haven — even while U.S. interest rates are rising.
Markets are pricing in political instability — specifically, the Trump-led chaos that undermines confidence in U.S. fiscal and geopolitical leadership.
Comments
So yeah….
What we all can agree on is that there are interesting tomes ahead.
I don't see actual synchronization, but I see a change in yields when the extent of damage to the US economy [in addition to the pre-existing decay] becomes visible.
Also took one econ class years ago and they told me nothing about investing
there's inflation -- like from the tariffs -- which erodes the nominal value of the higher yields [a widget from France now costs me minimum 10% more]
but there's also the dollar sinking [my dollars to buy the widget are less valuable against the franc]
right?
Servicing US debt will be impossible. The economy fails. This usually happens in emerging markets.
Trump has the economical IQ of a goldfish.
Yet here we are.
Liz Truss comes to mind.
And bombing...costs a lot of money.
Wars are won by the better economy (and logistics)
Their correlation is, in most cases, basic economics.
Breaking it requires steering the ship in the absolutely opposite direction of where you want to go.
His response: So what's wrong with that?
Thanks for showing what's wrong with that. We don't need unpredictability in the economic norms that US prosperity depends on.
That would be directly contrary to one of the Trump Administration's stated goals of paying down the national debt with tariff proceeds.
So much winning.
EVERYONE: COLLECT INFORMATION, EVERY DAY. WE WILL NEED IT!
way to go maga and the conspiratorial republicans
breaking this country
this is the money saying your not safe anymore
listen to the fucking money for fucks sake
the money is telling you to stop being an asshole
This chart captures the market saying:
“We no longer believe U.S. policy is coherent enough to trust.”
Higher borrowing costs + weaker currency = stagflation risk — rising yields usually help tame inflation by strengthening the dollar.
Flight to safety elsewhere — investors are dumping dollars and not moving into U.S. assets. Loss of faith in the dollar as a safe haven — even while U.S. interest rates are rising.
An autocracy can move quickly, negotiate, make changes on a whim with no transparent reasoning.
A democracy moves slowly, needs Congress to vote on transparent things.
These are broad strokes of course.
This doesn't bring back correlation.
I wonder how many month/years of stable policy would bring back correlation?
https://mg.co.za/thought-leader/2025-02-27-the-great-reset-could-be-hiding-in-plain-sight/
The main point is people are selling out of US dollar and taking their cash/investment out of US.
In my opinion, shit would hit the fan if US dollar index drops below 100.