The first step in policy analysis is figuring out what's going wrong. And by my view, we're facing two crises: A tariff crisis, and a crisis of confidence built upon fears incompetence.
Let me lay it out, wonk it out and math it out.
(I get a bit testy because I think this stuff really matters.)
Let me lay it out, wonk it out and math it out.
(I get a bit testy because I think this stuff really matters.)
Comments
Is that their premise?
There's still quite a few that are thinking with emotion 1 being greed...
Some of the current trading 'bros' haven't experienced a cycle of pain yet in their career
In terms of the market's moves, I think besides thinking "how will tariffs affect earnings?" another thought is "what is the risk premium of uncertainty, and how does that affect a reasonable price/earnings ratio?" The S&P500 P/E was priced for soft landing & steady growth.
The rest of the world is treating us like the Banana Republic the GOP are turning us into.
These clowns aren’t going to get less crazy or more competent.
Thank you though - love hearing your analysis always.
“…just pick up the phone instead” is brilliant, and a sign of your competence. (In stark contrast…)
And not testy at all to be a voice of reason
Prestige, confidence, whatever you want to call it... Markets are waking up to the fact that nihilist imbeciles are now in charge of the global economy. Keystone Cops, as you say.