johnnephew.bsky.social - Profile | ThreadSky | a Reddit-style client for Bluesky

Marco Rubio and Kristi Noem kidnapped a woman who was grateful she got her taxes done before they kidnapped Rümeysa Öztürk. www.propublica.org/article/rume...

submitted 11 hours ago • 21 comments

I wrote an update for the Ars Magica Definitive Edition Backerkit campaign, to reassure our backers in the face of tariff uncertainty. www.backerkit.com/c/projects/a...

submitted 10 hours ago • 2 comments

What if there was an opposition party that just said "If you give us a majority in congress we'll remove these freaks and criminals from power"

submitted 13 hours ago • 161 comments

Exiling people beyond the protection of US law without due process is not only unconstitutional, it's a rejection of the entire American revolutionary project. Sending people "beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences" is one of the grievances enumerated in the Declaration of Independence.

submitted 1 day ago • 80 comments

On Friday, April 11, traders placed large, aggressive bets that Apple’s stock would jump within days. They bought contracts that would only be profitable if the stock moved up fast. Hours later, the White House quietly announced a major policy shift. data-and-politics.ghost.io/173-returns-...

submitted 1 day ago • 30 comments

I was thinking about this Joe and Tracy anecdote from the supply chain crisis on gummy bears. Things are probably going to get really weird in a few weeks in unexpected ways:

submitted 1 day ago • 119 comments

Glad to see we’re addressing the root cause of all of this: Luther’s heresy

submitted 2 days ago • 46 comments

Hours ago, @politico.com revealed that DOGE is working with DHS on automating mass deportation efforts — likely explaining why many US citizens, green card holders, and even a Canadian (in Canada) got threatening emails last night terminating “your parole” and telling them to leave the US in 7 days.

submitted 2 days ago • 306 comments

Called my congressman who voted for the SAVE act. Me: What documents will I need to vote if this passes? Staffer: a DL and birth certificate. Me: The documents don’t match Staffer: Then a marriage certificate. Me: Will my husband need the marriage certificate too? Staffer: No Me: See the problem?

submitted 2 days ago • 1653 comments

The first step in policy analysis is figuring out what's going wrong. And by my view, we're facing two crises: A tariff crisis, and a crisis of confidence built upon fears incompetence. Let me lay it out, wonk it out and math it out. (I get a bit testy because I think this stuff really matters.)

submitted 2 days ago • 27 comments

Per a source, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who has required that he approve all contracts over certain thresholds personally, has over 5000 review requests on his desk. Apparently he approves around 15/day.

submitted 2 days ago • 86 comments

How to understand the stock market if you only watch Fox News

submitted 4 days ago • 89 comments

Some personal news: the Department of Homeland Security has given me, an immigration lawyer born in Newton, Massachusetts, seven days to leave the U.S. Does anyone know if you can get Italian citizenship through great-grandparents?

submitted 2 days ago • 2306 comments

So de minimis is cancelled for shipments from China. But...it's on shipments from China, not specifically Made in China goods. So if you use a Canadian or Taiwanese warehouse to ship goods to the US, do they still qualify for de minimis if the value is under $800?

submitted 2 days ago • 3 comments

When the market has an sharp uptick, and there's no news, the fear now is that Trump is planning some big announcement and the insiders are running to profit from it themselves and with their friends and family. Or maybe it's just spooked investors pumping up noise because they're of that.

submitted 2 days ago • 1 comment

These are conservative forecasts IMO. Grim. NEW YORK FED PRESIDENT JOHN WILLIAMS COMMENTS IN PREPARED TEXT WILLIAMS: EXPECT TARIFFS TO BOOST INFLATION THIS YEAR TO 3.5-4% WILLIAMS: SEE UNEMPLOYMENT REACHING 4.5%-5% OVER THE NEXT YEAR WILLIAMS: GDP GROWTH TO SLOW TO 'SOMEWHAT BELOW' 1% IN 2025

submitted 2 days ago • 22 comments

Members of Trump's cabinet, as well as Congresspeople and Senators, are being instructed to wear a tribute to their inglorious, convicted felon leader. boingboing.net/2025/04/09/t...

submitted 3 days ago • 52 comments

NEW on @npr.org: A DOGE staffer working in the Social Security Administration has been pushing questionable claims about noncitizens voting — apparently using data that court records suggest DOGE shouldn't have. More on the claims and the latest in DOGE access concerns:

submitted 2 days ago • 43 comments

BREAKING: The country of Norway just entered a bill to give transgender Americans asylum in the country of Norway… LGBTQ+ STRONG! 🌈✨

submitted 3 days ago • 1046 comments

So China says there would be no point in them increasing tariffs on the US more than this 125%, because this already means US goods are too expensive to sell in China. You can't reduce trade under zero. On the other hand, they may certainly consider other retaliatory actions in the future.

submitted 2 days ago • 3 comments

UNIVERSITY MICHIGAN 1 YR INFLATION PRELIM ACTUAL 6.7% (FORECAST 5.2%, PREVIOUS 5.0%) $MACRO

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

China hikes counter-tariff on US goods to 125% www.investing.com/news/economy...

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

Very informative chart from Washington Post

submitted 2 days ago • 187 comments

🇨🇳Chinese exchanges restrict daily stock sales as trade war with US escalates, sources say Chinese stock exchanges have imposed daily limits on net share sales by hedge funds and large retail investors, according to four sources, as Beijing intensifies support for its stock

submitted 2 days ago • 0 comments

yields going up and stocks going down suggests to me that what keynes called the “liquidity premium” has risen as a result of recent policy actions

submitted 4 days ago • 4 comments

Maybe I need to dig up and re-read "When Genius Failed," the book about the collapse of LTCM.

submitted 3 days ago • 0 comments

Wondering about game manufacturing and why so many games are printed in China? My colleague, @napoleanne.bsky.social, will be joining me for a livestream on Tuesday, 4/15, at 7 PM CST! Come and ask your questions, and we'll do our best to answer them. www.youtube.com/watch?v=8crC...

submitted 3 days ago • 1 comment

Today’s Daily Cartoon, by Brendan Loper. #NewYorkerCartoons Sign up for our free humor newsletter to never miss a Daily Cartoon: nyer.cm/PJhMpSk

submitted 3 days ago • 113 comments

Marco Rubio and Kristi Noem kidnapped a woman who was grateful she got her taxes done before they kidnapped Rümeysa Öztürk. www.propublica.org/article/rume...

I wrote an update for the Ars Magica Definitive Edition Backerkit campaign, to reassure our backers in the face of tariff uncertainty. www.backerkit.com/c/projects/a...

What if there was an opposition party that just said "If you give us a majority in congress we'll remove these freaks and criminals from power"

Exiling people beyond the protection of US law without due process is not only unconstitutional, it's a rejection of the entire American revolutionary project. Sending people "beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences" is one of the grievances enumerated in the Declaration of Independence.

On Friday, April 11, traders placed large, aggressive bets that Apple’s stock would jump within days. They bought contracts that would only be profitable if the stock moved up fast. Hours later, the White House quietly announced a major policy shift. data-and-politics.ghost.io/173-returns-...

I was thinking about this Joe and Tracy anecdote from the supply chain crisis on gummy bears. Things are probably going to get really weird in a few weeks in unexpected ways:

Glad to see we’re addressing the root cause of all of this: Luther’s heresy

Called my congressman who voted for the SAVE act. Me: What documents will I need to vote if this passes? Staffer: a DL and birth certificate. Me: The documents don’t match Staffer: Then a marriage certificate. Me: Will my husband need the marriage certificate too? Staffer: No Me: See the problem?

The first step in policy analysis is figuring out what's going wrong. And by my view, we're facing two crises: A tariff crisis, and a crisis of confidence built upon fears incompetence. Let me lay it out, wonk it out and math it out. (I get a bit testy because I think this stuff really matters.)

Per a source, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who has required that he approve all contracts over certain thresholds personally, has over 5000 review requests on his desk. Apparently he approves around 15/day.

How to understand the stock market if you only watch Fox News

Some personal news: the Department of Homeland Security has given me, an immigration lawyer born in Newton, Massachusetts, seven days to leave the U.S. Does anyone know if you can get Italian citizenship through great-grandparents?

So de minimis is cancelled for shipments from China. But...it's on shipments from China, not specifically Made in China goods. So if you use a Canadian or Taiwanese warehouse to ship goods to the US, do they still qualify for de minimis if the value is under $800?

When the market has an sharp uptick, and there's no news, the fear now is that Trump is planning some big announcement and the insiders are running to profit from it themselves and with their friends and family. Or maybe it's just spooked investors pumping up noise because they're of that.

These are conservative forecasts IMO. Grim. NEW YORK FED PRESIDENT JOHN WILLIAMS COMMENTS IN PREPARED TEXT WILLIAMS: EXPECT TARIFFS TO BOOST INFLATION THIS YEAR TO 3.5-4% WILLIAMS: SEE UNEMPLOYMENT REACHING 4.5%-5% OVER THE NEXT YEAR WILLIAMS: GDP GROWTH TO SLOW TO 'SOMEWHAT BELOW' 1% IN 2025

Members of Trump's cabinet, as well as Congresspeople and Senators, are being instructed to wear a tribute to their inglorious, convicted felon leader. boingboing.net/2025/04/09/t...

NEW on @npr.org: A DOGE staffer working in the Social Security Administration has been pushing questionable claims about noncitizens voting — apparently using data that court records suggest DOGE shouldn't have. More on the claims and the latest in DOGE access concerns:

BREAKING: The country of Norway just entered a bill to give transgender Americans asylum in the country of Norway… LGBTQ+ STRONG! 🌈✨

So China says there would be no point in them increasing tariffs on the US more than this 125%, because this already means US goods are too expensive to sell in China. You can't reduce trade under zero. On the other hand, they may certainly consider other retaliatory actions in the future.

UNIVERSITY MICHIGAN 1 YR INFLATION PRELIM ACTUAL 6.7% (FORECAST 5.2%, PREVIOUS 5.0%) $MACRO

China hikes counter-tariff on US goods to 125% www.investing.com/news/economy...

Very informative chart from Washington Post

🇨🇳Chinese exchanges restrict daily stock sales as trade war with US escalates, sources say Chinese stock exchanges have imposed daily limits on net share sales by hedge funds and large retail investors, according to four sources, as Beijing intensifies support for its stock

yields going up and stocks going down suggests to me that what keynes called the “liquidity premium” has risen as a result of recent policy actions

Maybe I need to dig up and re-read "When Genius Failed," the book about the collapse of LTCM.

Wondering about game manufacturing and why so many games are printed in China? My colleague, @napoleanne.bsky.social, will be joining me for a livestream on Tuesday, 4/15, at 7 PM CST! Come and ask your questions, and we'll do our best to answer them. www.youtube.com/watch?v=8crC...

Today’s Daily Cartoon, by Brendan Loper. #NewYorkerCartoons Sign up for our free humor newsletter to never miss a Daily Cartoon: nyer.cm/PJhMpSk

So apparently if China wants to Trump to cave on tariffs, they could dump US bonds since everyone knows that's kryptonite for the mango

Trump Boasts About Strong-Arming Trump Into Pausing Tariffs

Sure. OK. finance.yahoo.com/news/live/tr...