I was thinking about this Joe and Tracy anecdote from the supply chain crisis on gummy bears. Things are probably going to get really weird in a few weeks in unexpected ways:
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Sounds like when Europe was nearly facing a shortage of food grade CO2 when the fertilizer plants were shutting down due to the sharp increase in natural gas prices when π·πΊ began the 2022 offensive against πΊπ¦.
Just wait for the βwe canβt build new factories because we canβt get rare earth metals for permanent magnet motors as China is blocking all exportβ
On a more personally-relevant pig issue: I need Pancreatin to digest my food. There is a global shortage becaus it is extracted from pigs' pancreases. The most productive pigs'pancreases for this are those from fully-grown pigs. Most pork comes from less mature pigs so....
I really dont want to know, but I am sorry for your father's situation. Everyone knows that diabetics need insulin but more or less no one has heard of Creon unless they or a family member need it.
I am lucky enough to live in Scotland where all prescription medications are free.
That is absolutely true - most people he's told about it have never heard of it (I certainly hadn't). Interestingly, we're of Scottish descent (Scottish Highlands) but unfortunately too far back for dual citizenship.
There are ways to substitute constituent parts of a supply chain. But SCs are very efficient under a predictable trade regime. When you introduce uncertainty into the SC w/ tariffs, e.g, alternative suppliers need to weigh whether itβs worth the capex to spin up or simply wait out the uncertainty
Yes but the supply chain isnβt there right now. This is literally Covid supply shock. Like why didnβt restaurant suppliers just sell to stores, they canβt because the supply chain isnβt set up that way. Eventually it can adjust but no one is adjusting because things might change in 90 days.
To me the absolute value of tariffs is less important then the uncertainty of the monkey in chief changing things overnight and/or 90 days. Like if he just upped tariffs across the board 20% with no negotiation will be easier for markets to adjust then his on again, off again, revisit in 90 days.
I'm guessing upholstery.
(Having worked/apprenticed in the auto interior restoration business a few decades ago. It's more abrasion resistant than cow leather/suede.)
Ever play Dwarf Fortress? Teaches you about supply chains. "Where'd all the goddamn soap go!? And why can't I make steel? Oh we ran out of turkeys. Not fat, no soap; no potash, no pig iron, no steel. Fuck it kill all the male llamas except one." No, I was shaving them! Now we have no mittens!
You and your fancy "Disorderly Inflation" terms. It is a fucking shit show. The inflation aspect is only one effect. We are going to get a new lesson in trickle-down economics.
βI canβt buy this basket of goods so Iβm spending money on this other basket of goods and servicesβ β shortages in some areas, demand boosts and inflation in others.
here's a nut to crack.
we pretend to recycle plastic but can't, can't stop making it because it's a byproduct of oil production. we didn't just trade glass for plastic. we traded glass for plastic because we built our economy on oil consumption and needed somewhere (our brains, the ocean) to put it
I am playing a game wherein supply chains feed one into another and as the narrator says, if you stack these deep enough you get an economy capable of sending rockets into space. The downside is if you get an interruption in your silica (or something) supply you lose your rockets.
I supposed Iβm imagining cowhide being stronger & used majority car upholstery but π€·ββοΈ I didnβt think the U.S. has any shortage of either although probably less factory processing π€·ββοΈ Iβd like to show people how multiple shortages can happen & these are the questions I thought of myself.
For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
For want of a horse the rider was lost.
For want of a rider the message was lost.
For want of a message the battle was lost.
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.
The nail was lost because they did not have enough steel.
The steel was lost because the tariffs were too high.
The tariffs were too high because they elected the stupid felon.
They elected the stupid felon because they refused to listen to the woman. Twice.
To all of our senators, congresswomen, and congressmen as well as all of the journalists and reporters that are doing their best to stand up for democracy and βtruthβamidst the turmoil happening in our country right now, THANK YOU! ππΌ
Gelatine is a byproduct of the leather industry basically. It is also really worthless. That is why you can not get any if nobody is butchering animals for some other purpose that actually makes money.
If you think it is vegan to eat dumpster dived animal products, then it is also vegan to buy gelatine. Because the bad skin parts that are used to make gelatine are literally burned if nobody takes them for gelatine
(! giving monetary value to the side-products of killing makes it more profitable to kill. animal agriculture should be discouraged from all angles, people should be ideologically, principally opposed to the murder of animals and the ability to benefit from it, as far as is possible. !)
(! then clearly there is net profit out of that, otherwise they wouldn't do it. and i refuse to give them that profit, i refuse to entertain the idea of animal exploitation, as far as is reasonably possible. !)
wait if gelatin is made from the scraps then surely they could if needed buy just one whole skin and turn it into the same amount of gelatin they'd get from the scraps from 30-50 hogs
I like the way you think. It is made from the parts that arenβt usable for leather. These are scraps but still a significant part of skin. Technically one could of course use all of the skin for gelatine but that would be a waste of good skin and be ridiculously expensive
Sure. There are also people who think it is fine to buy leather second hand.
The reasons for which people are vegan and so their exact evaluation of situations at the fringes differs.
That is really the same with everything, nothing particular vegan about it
I get what you're saying. I'm not one to judge other folks' veganism; like you said, we all arrive here a different way. Just find those particular two examples hard to reconcile
And if one believes they arenβt ignorant, itβs a sure sign they are.
Every time I work in/with a new industry, I learn this kind of stuff that makes my jaw drop. Most recently hospitals. Just wait until this flows down to the weird chemicals we rely upon for our modern medicine. People will shit.
If I were setting public school curriculum, in addition to learning how to balance a checkbook and about how credit card interest accrues, kids should have to learn about supply chains. I mean, home economics could include some exploration of how things get to your home, couldnβt it?
We teach supply chains at about age 7 in New Zealand.
Usually through a food unit.
Then it is taught every 2 years in more complexity. Sustainability, environmental impact, globalisation eventually all become part of the unit.
Between toilet paper and cardboard for all the online shipping I donβt think a lignin (the byproduct for artificial vanilla) shortage is likely. Imitation vanilla can also be made from petroleum byproducts which unfortunately also remains a very large industry.
The right wants to divide, separate, and take sides -- and they hate wholeness in any form -- and yet everything is related to everything else in the world, despite their paranoid hatefulness.
You donβt have to know all of the intricacies of how interconnected our modern world is. You just have to respect that it is complex and not going around breaking things you donβt understand. Sadly, weβre ruled by people who donβt.
what is this wesite? a Russian site trolling Musk's traitors to send them all the Gov data they have stolen ??... "snowfflake" would appeal to them. https://snowflake.com
Maybe the zippers on the luggage bag you want to buy come from China, and now because the luggage company canβt get zippers they canβt make luggage bags. The βwe canβt get the cheap semiconductors we need to make automobilesβ but on a much wider scale.
And it turns out it is often like that! Chassis were a famous example in shipping for a while. I also liked this quote from peak pandemic supply chain trouble. These systems are all about balance and flow.
Surely they can get zippers, just at a greatly increased price? Which they will pay & pass on. Isn't that what is going to happen across many China-made products with no easy / quick substitutes? Eventually a lower-tariff, low-labor cost country takes over zipper manufacturing.
If someone in the supply chain doesnβt want to have the carrying cost and risk of buying a lot of zippers into inventory at high tariff rates, unsure if that rate will hold, they may in fact become unavailable at least for awhile.
Quality Zipper is a wholesale YKK distributor for the US market and are exposed to tariff risk.
They are going to pass the costs on to their customers the best they can, but large bulk orders for zippers right now at 145% tariff is quite risky. Availability will be lower. https://www.qualityzipper.com/
Maybe Conor & Warren Buffett could come up with an hedging product against Trump's tariff rate whims?
On 2nd thoughts, this would be tough, since crooks in Trump's circle would manipulate the hell out of that using inside info.
If Brexit is anything to go by: no, in many cases they decide they can no longer be bothered with the extra hassle, expense and paperwork of selling to your country.
Eventually, that might happen. I think that the instability and chaos around the entire tariff and trade policy makes it hard for anyone to do anything in a country with a favorable trade position now and for the next 5 minutes.
In a startling number of cases, I bet products will cease to exist.
You will likely find that some products just become unavailable. A lot of international trade is at scale and if that scale isn't there then the product just becomes unavailable
The price mechanism is a fantastic thing. Cheap components of expensive products - zippers for fancy luggage - are going to continue to be bought from China, at the inflated price.
But aggregate real US consumption will fall due to tariffed prices and this will cause major job loss & misery.
I don't disagree in general but we don't have any real analog for what is happening right now. If you have enough money you will get your luggage though I think a lot of people that think they are well off might very well not
I think luggage is an item thatβs already close to the point where even a relatively small price increase will make people decide to just keep using what they already have. And if the company making it thinks the same thing, theyβll slow down production. And then it will cost even more.
It is definitely is a supply shock. But the whole rest of the world is open. Companies that can will substitute. Also, it just means the zipper is now double the price. How much is a zipper as % of the total bill of material? Itβs not a line down situation like COVID. There are levers to pull
and maybe a lot of people will ask "what happened that the zipper factory moved to China, how was that something that saved so much money it was worth doing"
COVID was supply shock followed by a stimulus driven demand surge. The worst of both worlds for supply chain planners. This is different. Demand is soft. Huge wealth effect (people feel poorer). No stimulus in sight. It's inflationary and there will be effects here and there. Not catastrophic
No this is where all these companies bribe him personally to lift the tariffs. This is what it's all about. Shut it down and then lift it one by one after getting paid
π― There should be a campaign called "Are you missing your (fill in product here), then bribe Trump! π°
Missing your gummy bears? Bribe Trump. π€¬
This will work for some larger companies. But there are a huge number of businesses, big and small that won't have access to Trump or will decide it isn't worth it. After all, it's not like Trump is going to extort you once, it's a protection racket.
I mean, we live in post truth world. Who knows. Confirmation bias also exists.
The premise still holds, the supply chains are so convoluted that we're likely to see some additional weird consequences like in COVID. Odd gaps in store shelves, common goods conspicuously unavailable...
Or The Settlers. I'm playing the marginally tweaked original version atm and you only have to blink and you realise your quarrier ran out of stone, which means you can't finish building the farm which means no food, no food no mines, no mines no new soldiers so can't occupy guard posts & you're f'd.
copy the image and open new window to repost. click on the alt button for the image. when the alt window opens click on the 3 dots menu in the very upper right hand corner of the tab. click on Google lens. copy the text and the source will show up in the right hand sidebar.
the gummy bear company can't pay extra for the hogs to be slaughtered anyway resulting in expensive gummy bears and cheap leather? this is how I was always told the free market worked.
Apparently, that is a hazard of living in a country that is rapidly falling into autocracy. People literally go crazy--so take extra care of your mental health. Seriously. I'm working hard to keep myself grounded and in meaningful community.
I once read a list of all the things a pig carcass is used for...things you'd never think of, the only weird one that sticks in my mind was something to do with (specifically) tram brakes. ..
Making gelatin is like making sausage. You do not want to watch! It is in a lot of food stuffs, not only Jell-O! We are going to see more train wrecks, not all funny.
Wow, you mean the economy is based on global trade?!?
And Iβm sure there is some right-wing content creator out there right now making a video showing gummy bears in stores and saying the libs are trying to stoke a panic, all the while not understanding how inventory works.
I donβt know if this is haha funny or uh-oh funnyβ¦ but if the political party of my choosing took away my favourite candy, I could be persuaded to change my vote. I wonder how many Republican votes this puts at risk? The βgummy bear vote.β
Taiwanese chips are used in cars
Pig skin is uses in cars
Pig bones are boiled to make gelatin
Gelatin is needed for gummy bears.
No chips = less cars made = less pigs killed = less bones boiled = less geletin.
It isn't financially worth it to kill pigs if you cant sell the pig skin.
Trumpism 2.0 is a radical reactionary movement. Reactionaries, like revolutionaries, often have a difficult time comprehending interdependency and unintended consequences. This is one of the major characteristics that dustinguishes Trumpism from classical, Burkean conservatism.
No chips β No cars β No hog hides β No collagen β No cosmetics β No bronzer β No βhealthy glowβ β Trumpβs mood drops with the Dow. Bada bing bada boom.
Consider, it will not be the pigs squealing loudest when the supply chains collapse this time, Clarice. What Would The Great Hannibal Lector Do (WWTGHLD)?
(Edited 14:18 via @skeetsapp.com)
Good news is that most gummies are made with agar and other non-animal products instead of gelatin. Gelatin gummies need to be cooked while agar type ones are cooled (much easier to manufacture).
How to tell the difference:
Agar gummies squish.
Gelatin gummies bounce.
I can't figure out how common pigskin is for automotive upholstery. I think it's pretty widely used for welding gloves & coats though, wonder if that's a large enough chunk of demand for the connection here.
lots of manufacturers use synthetic fibers for car interiors instead, and most car interior leather is from cows, but a significant share of them is from pigs
Conor Sen thinks he's conveying a supply chain story about the butterfly effect & unintended consequences using Taiwan computer chips, hogs, gelatin, & gummy bears. No. He's making folks wonder, "Who is passing hog skin off as cow leather?" & "Why do his friends think car interiors come from pigs?"
Interestingly, I'm now recalling that the availability of paint pigments outside of standard artists colors for hobby brands has largely been dependent on the popularity of colors in car paint.
I called shenanigans on this one when it came out and I really won't believe it till sourced from someone else. the guy was a baker, not a chips or meat processing expert
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I am lucky enough to live in Scotland where all prescription medications are free.
(Having worked/apprenticed in the auto interior restoration business a few decades ago. It's more abrasion resistant than cow leather/suede.)
My sour worms!
Global supply chain for gummy bears: discuss and defend.
Putin and Xi would love for trump to justify their territorial claims and break NATO
we pretend to recycle plastic but can't, can't stop making it because it's a byproduct of oil production. we didn't just trade glass for plastic. we traded glass for plastic because we built our economy on oil consumption and needed somewhere (our brains, the ocean) to put it
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
For want of a horse the rider was lost.
For want of a rider the message was lost.
For want of a message the battle was lost.
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.
The nail was lost because they did not have enough steel.
The steel was lost because the tariffs were too high.
The tariffs were too high because they elected the stupid felon.
They elected the stupid felon because they refused to listen to the woman. Twice.
Dumb libs just don't understand business genius.
https://bsky.app/profile/runningsignal.com/post/3lmjtubyrd22o
Dang.
The reasons for which people are vegan and so their exact evaluation of situations at the fringes differs.
That is really the same with everything, nothing particular vegan about it
Every time I work in/with a new industry, I learn this kind of stuff that makes my jaw drop. Most recently hospitals. Just wait until this flows down to the weird chemicals we rely upon for our modern medicine. People will shit.
Usually through a food unit.
Then it is taught every 2 years in more complexity. Sustainability, environmental impact, globalisation eventually all become part of the unit.
Let's make lots of cars.
We need more hogs.
Ugh, too much gelatinous goo. Let's add sugar and create snacks for car rides = gummy bears
https://snowflake.com
They are going to pass the costs on to their customers the best they can, but large bulk orders for zippers right now at 145% tariff is quite risky. Availability will be lower.
https://www.qualityzipper.com/
On 2nd thoughts, this would be tough, since crooks in Trump's circle would manipulate the hell out of that using inside info.
In a startling number of cases, I bet products will cease to exist.
Some things they won't be able to get. Others they will choose not to and pivot out of the business.
And the word "eventually" is doing almost as much weasel-word load-bearing as "surely" is here.
But aggregate real US consumption will fall due to tariffed prices and this will cause major job loss & misery.
Missing your gummy bears? Bribe Trump. π€¬
Should get my concentration right.
The premise still holds, the supply chains are so convoluted that we're likely to see some additional weird consequences like in COVID. Odd gaps in store shelves, common goods conspicuously unavailable...
https://seekersguidance.org/answers/shafii-fiqh/deal-possible-impure-leather-car-interiors/
158 products from a pig.
https://christienmeindertsma.com/PIG-05049
And Iβm sure there is some right-wing content creator out there right now making a video showing gummy bears in stores and saying the libs are trying to stoke a panic, all the while not understanding how inventory works.
Pig skin is uses in cars
Pig bones are boiled to make gelatin
Gelatin is needed for gummy bears.
No chips = less cars made = less pigs killed = less bones boiled = less geletin.
It isn't financially worth it to kill pigs if you cant sell the pig skin.
You would reach more people, when you add a good description into the Alt-text field.
That is pretty easy, especially, when your image just contain text.
This way, you support visually impaired people and everyone else, who rely on a good filled Alt-text.
#accessibility
Always think of it as the most Odd Lots bit of Odd Lots Iβve heard
This is terrifying now.
(Edited 14:18 via @skeetsapp.com)
How to tell the difference:
Agar gummies squish.
Gelatin gummies bounce.
In: "Hey, can we pass around the pigskin?"
Had to look this one up as I was baffled as well.
(although it seems that car paint is adopting flat creme colors that look like nail polish now!)
At this point I'm convinced we live in the "dark timeline".