Yeah. I did a z score with the most recent election results, going back to 2010, to see how significant this was. For the 6th district, it isn’t. For the 1sr district, it’s VERY significant. Very few House 1st district races have been this close.
History repeats — same shift followed the 2016 election as a prelude to flipping the house in 2018. Tonight’s 20 point shift may not have carried the day (as it did recently in state senate seats in Iowa and Pennsylvania) but it indicates durable trend.
It’s not really a “shift”. The incumbent party usually sees less enthusiasm in special elections. The modern GOP sees even bigger enthusiasm drops when Trump himself isn’t on the ballot. I wouldn’t read much into this result other than Dems may do well in other special elections.
There was a fairly predictable shift between specials and general elections for the last several cycles. We don't have a ton of data points yet, but the way this is going, it's looking like a bigger wave than 2018 is building.
Fair. But I’m not sure anyone is really expecting R’s to retain the house in 2026? As I mentioned, they’ve underperformed in every cycle since 2016 where Trump himself isn’t on the ballot. Either way, I don’t read this as an opinion shift by the electorate. His voters are just content.
Well, the Senate matters more. I'd say Dems are likely to win Maine and NC. That means Dems need 2 more races for control. In a good year with a D+8 or +10 (or more, even) electorate Dems can be on offense in Ohio, Texas, Iowa, and Kansas. That's a big deal!
This is telling. It shows the mood of the country. Even Republican diehards are feeling queasy. This looks to be about half with a complete change of heart. We probably can't get them all to admit their horrible mistake but many are quite willing to. It's what happens next that will alter history.
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- Democratic Strategists on MSNBC