Strong showing for Wilson in this poll, but the headline overstates her support. It includes undecided voters who were then given info about both candidates. Additionally, other candidates were not included in the survey. The baseline spread is actually 25% Harrell, 18% Wilson and 56% unsure. - ThreadSky

guyoron.net • 7 days ago

Strong showing for Wilson in this poll, but the headline overstates her support. It includes undecided voters who were then given info about both candidates. Additionally, other candidates were not included in the survey. The baseline spread is actually 25% Harrell, 18% Wilson and 56% unsure.

Reposted from Northwest Progressive Institute

Katie Wilson 36%, Bruce Harrell 33%: NPI’s May 2025 Civic Heartbeat poll finds statistical tie in Seattle mayoral race

Eight candidates filed for Mayor of Seattle during Filing Week 2025. Of the field, only incumbent Bruce Harrell and challenger Katie Wilson of the Transit Riders Union have raised…

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nwprogressive.org•7 days ago

It's a survey of general election voters, *not* Top Two voters, simulating possible general election dynamics. The headline accurately states what the numbers are in the aggregate, and the aggregate numbers reflect the combined responses. "Baseline" is not the right word - "initial responses" works.

nwprogressive.org•7 days ago

Every single one of our Seattle electoral polls has included a question structure like this, and our county-level polls have also. For example, look at our King County Prosecutor polling from 2022. Tons of voters undecided initially; but follow-ups with undecideds revealed an edge for Leesa Manion.

nwprogressive.org•7 days ago

And we can see from the election results how insightful that polling was - how illuminating those follow-up questions and responses from undecided voters were. Don't dismiss that part of the dataset, Guy. It's arguably the most important piece, because it measures reactions to candidate messaging.

guyoron.net•7 days ago

I appreciate this. I think the main thing I wanted to point out to people is to not misinterpret what the poll actually says. I agree that it shows that with enough voter outreach. Katie Wilson has a lot of opportunities to grow her support.

nwprogressive.org•7 days ago

We encourage people to click/tap through and read the finding carefully, not just look at the graphic/headline here on Bluesky or elsewhere. We never release data without context and analysis. There's lots of extremely useful information in the post that contains the poll finding.

guyoron.net•7 days ago

Of course!

robertcruickshank.com•7 days ago

Yep. With those caveats in mind though, it’s still a great showing for Wilson and really bad for Harrell. The fact that Wilson gains 20 points after candidate statements are read and Harrell gains just 8 is particularly noticeable.

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