So voters are retarded, what else is new?
According to YouGov polls, the American people also think 12% of the population is trans, 20% is Muslim, 25% is Jewish and 35% of the population is part of a union.
When you ask people about their policy preferences in neutral language without party labels, they are generally closer to Democrats outside of immigration & trans girls in sports.
I agree with a lot of this. I would like a similar analysis of why neither Clinton nor Obama were able to build sustainable majorities. Sure we can do another DLC reboot but we’ll be rack back here in 25 years.
Putting aside that Harris shouldn't have been the nominee she certainly shouldn't have picked the VP that was touted as the most progressive of the choices available.
But he said Vance is "weird" which definitely did not backfire on the candidate who was on video saying she supports federally funded sex changes for illegal immigrants in prison.
Honestly I wish you could hear how this rhetoric sounds from the perspective of the working class man who feels increasingly unwelcome and not at all heard in the democratic party.
I would expect you, of all people, to understand that most of this is likely a mix of thermostatic politics and the general anti-incumbent feeling across the world.
Trump is declaring economic (and quasi military) war on allies and Elon Musk is hijacking the federal payments system and closing federal agencies. In a binary political system, if voters don’t turn to Dems as the alternative, then we’re fucked, no messaging will matter.
Matt, are you saying that the candidate who called for show trials, mass deportations and the invasion of Greenland was more "moderate" than his opponent? Because that's obviously not true.
And if it's just the perception of moderation, why should Dems change their policy positions, knowing there's a complete disconnect between their policies and the public perception of them?
This is not necessarily based on rational perception of policies but on vibes, so changing policy positions probably won’t help very much. We need to focus on appearing moderate over anything.
On blind surveys, people preferentially favored Harris policies. What should we infer from that? On Project 2025, people overwhelmingly rejected its ideas, but were persuaded it wasn’t real. How did that happen and who was to blame?
Trying to understand how voters perceive their choices is wrongheaded, if you want to understand how to do better in elections? That seems like a bad take.
I mean to say: General polls like this don't do a good job of [measuring the thing we would both agree is a good thing to measure] and lead to the wrong conclusion.
What if what american people believe is false? at the beginning of Iraq war polls were STRONGLY in favor of going into Iraq. evidence shows immigration is very beneficial for U.S overall. But polling thinks otherwise. You aren’t making clear the point you are trying to make.
I mean we just lost an election because of those false beliefs. We should at least have a nominal grasp of the political landscape if we want to, you know, politic.
Yes, in reality, we have to know where we stand. But effect of a skewed game of information flow to people - “vibes” or “attention”, fake news - all progress can be discounted. Sports analogy - a team keeps run/throw TDs- refs always call it back - you can’t win.
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According to YouGov polls, the American people also think 12% of the population is trans, 20% is Muslim, 25% is Jewish and 35% of the population is part of a union.
Nice to know you agree with Stancil
I think it's mainly the info environment.
When you ask people about their policy preferences in neutral language without party labels, they are generally closer to Democrats outside of immigration & trans girls in sports.
1. They want to trans your kid
2. They want illegal immigrants moving into your house
3. They want criminals & the homeless to kill you
The more important question is why the average American believes this shit.
I mean to say: General polls like this don't do a good job of [measuring the thing we would both agree is a good thing to measure] and lead to the wrong conclusion.