yeah at this point I don’t think we can really learn much more about how this election is going to go until we start getting some completed rust belt counties on November 5th
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1\Still plenty left unknown, but I think Trump's scenario winning is more of a longshot. He has to win low-turnout, marginal voters in sufficient numbers to out-perform his polling *now*.
I think it's less likely the polls undercount his support this time, or at least by a smaller margin.
3\In a battle of inches, I think Harris has more potential to go the distance. Ground game, cash on hand AND burn rate, upside chance with voters, and when people see her, they tend to like her more.
Someone asked me when we'll "know" and I was like buddy I'm sorry to say but prolly not for a hot minute. And then depending how it goes maybe not for a long while.
I actually have reasonable confidence that Harris is going to win the election. The question is whether Trump subsequently manages to seize power anyway
I think Trump’s play for young men is actually more about creating a group that will create violence for him than it is about winning votes. With changes to the law and Ds in charge of the WH and most swing states governor’s office it will not play out like last time I feel confident.
He can't do it without the federal government at his disposal like it was last time. He will shriek and cry but when it becomes clear to his various pilot fish they need to unhook, they will, and he will sink to the mud alone. If he were incumbent I'd be worried but he isn't.
I think the reaction if he were to try again in a way that at all inched into violence would be … swift and bracing. Neither the institutions most placed to contain such an attempt as it as it developed nor the normie left of center populace have much remaining patience or forbearance.
If that was a dealbreaker than no coup would ever work. I'm not saying they'll succeed. Just that every possible precaution and countermeasure should be ready.
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I think it's less likely the polls undercount his support this time, or at least by a smaller margin.
Plus, she's hustling and has an army of volunteers. Trump has Elon's paid-for ground team.
Everyone knows and hates Trump.