Inbox: Morgan Stanley economists warn that Trump's immigration restrictions look likely to drag on GDP this year, increase inflationary pressures, limit interest rate cuts
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So when do we queue in the Hamilton cast to start singing:
Cause when push comes to shove
I will kill your friends and family to remind you of my love
Da-da-da, dat-da, dat, da-da-da, da-ya-da
Da-da, dat, dat, da-ya-da
In June we didn’t buy down our mortgage points because the break even was five years. And surely we thought, interest rates would come down in five years. Dreading how wrong I think we were.
-Purging the federal workforce
-Increased tariffs on imports
-Deporting immigrants
-Reduce government spending
-Increased taxes on working/middle class
Well what a shocker. Wait till they try and bail themselves out by sending one time cheques to everyone. Inflation will be high as a kite. Do yourselves a favor and start putting cash under your mattress. The US is now on the very large downslope of the bell curve
The good news is 1) we have the H2A agricultural visa specifically for this purpose 2) only about 3% of illegal immigrants work in agriculture, most work in restaurants, construction, etc. in the major US cities like LA, NYC, etc. We can in fact deport most of them every little impact on lettuce
I have been. We should abandon slave labor. There are H2A visas and 1+ million of legal immigrants coming here every year. We should not abuse illegal immigrants. They should return home
Not only has Trump/Musk not gotten prices of groceries or anything else down, inflation is on the rise. Let’s just hope he doesn’t crash the stock market, but he may not be worried about that because he’s into Crypto.
yeah - but just you wait until Musk/Trump 'fire' Powell, put in their lackey and then THEY set inflation rates
to gaslight us into thinking the economy is doing just fine!
Biden's Fed toed a very fine line to simultaneously cut inflation & prevent a recession
but now we're heading for a shitshow
Wait til they look at what his rhetoric on trade is doing to former international partners.
Or what his layoffs and their ripple effects are doing to unemployment.
Catch up and speak up, Morgan Stanley.
Eventually these guys are going to have to say something approaching what they know the truth is -- that Trump's policies are going to hurt the economy -- otherwise they will lose clients to firms that don't cause them to lose money with bad investment advice
3 million undocumented aren't coming in every year either. 2022 had 2.6 million legal immigrants but that was after the pandemic dip so I'm not sure where they're getting their numbers but I assume they're counting permanent residents, green cards and TPS as well as undocumented.
That’s a partial count of legal immigration. All green card holders have work authorization, not just those in employment based categories. The figure below doesn’t include non immigrant employment visas or immigrants in a legal process that don’t yet have a formal status.
Did they also mention that suppressed immigration and lower growth will also blow up the deficit hugely as well? It's a foregone conclusion that trump will try to bail himself out of his upcoming economic disaster with truck-loads of helicopter-cash to his friends.
No Duh! Does Wall Street's Masters of the Universe have anymore deeply insightful observations to share? Just wait until Dear Leader starts dictating interest rates and economic stats.
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Make sure to thank a Republican for fucking up the US economy by their complete capitulation to Donald Trump.
Cause when push comes to shove
I will kill your friends and family to remind you of my love
Da-da-da, dat-da, dat, da-da-da, da-ya-da
Da-da, dat, dat, da-ya-da
-Increased tariffs on imports
-Deporting immigrants
-Reduce government spending
-Increased taxes on working/middle class
... what on Earth could it all be leading too?
to gaslight us into thinking the economy is doing just fine!
Biden's Fed toed a very fine line to simultaneously cut inflation & prevent a recession
but now we're heading for a shitshow
Too little too late
as planned
Or what his layoffs and their ripple effects are doing to unemployment.
Catch up and speak up, Morgan Stanley.
About 197,000 immigrants received employment-based green cards in 2023
About 67,000 immigrants were admitted on diversity visas from countries.
Monthly encounters peaked with over 370,000 people in December 2023.
We'll be lucky if they just hold steady instead of raising them this year.