So, this could all change dramatically if Carney actually becomes leader, but: a. This is a nightmare scenario for the NDP. b. A statistical tie favors the Liberals because of all the surplus Conservative votes in the west. c. Which could encourage everyone to cool the early election talk. - ThreadSky

stephengm.bsky.social • 16 days ago

So, this could all change dramatically if Carney actually becomes leader, but:

a. This is a nightmare scenario for the NDP.

b. A statistical tie favors the Liberals because of all the surplus Conservative votes in the west.

c. Which could encourage everyone to cool the early election talk.

Reposted from Philippe J. Fournier

Federal 🇨🇦 voting intentions from Léger -- With Mark Carney as LPC leader:

🔴LPC 37%
🔵CPC 37%
🟠NDP 12%
⚜️BQ 6%
🟢GPC 5%
🟣PPC 2%

→ 338canada.com/polls.htm

[Léger, February 7-10, 2025, n=1,595]

#canpoli

Comments

futur.blue•16 days ago

I don't see any reason Carney wouldn't want to go to an election immediately though — unless the Trump situation is especially dire by the time he's PM & we don't have a month to spare

stephengm.bsky.social•16 days ago

He might! It might be smarter to go early and settle the question while Carney's in the honeymoon phase. Or it might be smarter to wait. I'm no political strategist so I could easily be not seeing something important.

phoebebarton.bsky.social•16 days ago

It's a nightmare scenario for the NDP *because* of how awful Singh has been over the past few months. He made his commitment to overthrow the Libs before the polls started to turn; why the fuck would I reward the NDP for throwing the country to the Conservatives?

sillysyntax.bsky.social•16 days ago

This is the issue. The cons were polling higher and he decided to drop them it made no sense
Unrelated I saw new PP ads today and it's the same carbon tax line and I looked at youtube and said SERIOUSLY? Who is seriously worried about the carbon tax at this moment? He can't even pivot. Pivotless PP

phoebebarton.bsky.social•16 days ago

Exactly - Singh pushed me to *not* vote for the NDP after decades; it's an accomplishment, but not a good one

sillysyntax.bsky.social•16 days ago

I was totally confused as to what he thought he was doing. It was the strangest strategy I've ever seen.

phoebebarton.bsky.social•16 days ago

What I *suspect* he was doing is that he saw the collapse in Liberal numbers and thought he could do 2011 but win this time

What I also suspect is that he is not nearly as good as politics as he thinks he is

kalinstacey.bsky.social•16 days ago

I think the NDP leadership really considers losing badly to the conservatives but becoming the official opposition to be a win scenario. It's the epitome of hyper partisanship because it's not a win for literally anybody except themselves and the far right, but it's the only conclusion I can come to

stephengm.bsky.social•16 days ago

I'm a longtime NDP supporter - and I'm currently a member of the party. But I really think that NDP decision-makers do not understand the degree to which 2011 was not replicable.

stephengm.bsky.social•16 days ago

Yeah, I don't know what Singh was thinking - as Phoebe and I have discussed before, I HOPED he was trying to maneuver away from being tied to Trudeau's record and intended to pivot later. But if that was the strategy, it was cynical, dangerous, and poorly executed. It failed hard, and he owns that.

patrickjohanneson.com•16 days ago

22 Minutes had a great clip a week or two back about PP trying to come up with a new slogan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z57IzXQFptE

sillysyntax.bsky.social•16 days ago

NOOOOO THAT'S MY WHOLE THINGGGG!!!!

but this was it basically. we're all panicked about tariffs, even people in the West. People in Quebec have lost their jobs. Him: Axe the tax like a parrot.

Also 22 mins has been welcomely funny on this and that horrid president.

phoebebarton.bsky.social•16 days ago

they have an extremely long pedigree of being funny on US-related stuff

sillysyntax.bsky.social•16 days ago

hahah I had forgotten about that!!!

patrickjohanneson.com•16 days ago

The fact the same guy plays both Justin and Pierre on 22 Minutes is just [chef's kiss]

diannalgunn.bsky.social•16 days ago

Singh needs to resign like Trudeau did. The party is effectively dead as long as he's in charge

I will be voting NDP because our MPP - one of the best in Ontario, if not the country - is running federally this year but if she wasn't, I wouldn't even consider voting NDP

pineapplefury.bsky.social•16 days ago

I'm in the same boat - if not for Joel Harden I likely would pivot to Liberal for the first time in my life. I don't even like Mark Carney, but if he can avoid Squeaky Pete, I'm all for him.

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