The bait-and-switch, with Kellogg talking to the Ukrainians and Europeans, but Witkoff dealing with Moscow and evidently Trump, does more than just underscore the White House's preference for bilateralism. It locks in the sense in Europe that Washington cannot be trusted. /8 - ThreadSky

samagreene.bsky.social • 10 days ago

The bait-and-switch, with Kellogg talking to the Ukrainians and Europeans, but Witkoff dealing with Moscow and evidently Trump, does more than just underscore the White House's preference for bilateralism. It locks in the sense in Europe that Washington cannot be trusted.

/8

Comments

ellinst.bsky.social•9 days ago

Good -- Washington *cannot* be trusted.

savvycammom.bsky.social•9 days ago

Exactly this.

ultrapop.bsky.social•9 days ago

And Europe would be correct.
Washington cannot be trusted.

dhappy2b.bsky.social•9 days ago

The path forward is simple; Don’t react to what the US says, simply hit them where it hurts. Let’s start by boycotting everything (http://www.krysstal.com/democracy_whyusa_boycott.html), and then systematically work our way all the way up to removing the US dollar as the world reserve currency.

derloos.bsky.social•9 days ago

A blessing in disguise? Because Washington truly cannot be trusted, and it's high time Europe acted accordingly.

msmilack75.bsky.social•9 days ago

And it shows how far apart Herr Trump is from his Republican colleagues

samagreene.bsky.social•10 days ago

But all of that said, the idea that Trump and Putin are hours or days away from imposing a settlement on Ukraine and Europe is fantastical. Yes, the sky is considerably closer to the ground than it was three weeks ago, but it hasn't fallen yet, and there is time to act.

/9

msmilack75.bsky.social•9 days ago

beautifully put

samagreene.bsky.social•10 days ago

First, despite Trump's evident post-Putin-call ebullience, Washington and Moscow remain miles apart on what even a minimally acceptable settlement would entail. Perhaps that's why Moscow's read-out of the call was considerably less enthusiastic.

/10

samagreene.bsky.social•10 days ago

For Putin, an acceptable deal would need to do four things:
1. Keep Ukraine out of NATO
2. Provide sanctions relief
3. Leave Russia in control of escalation
4. Neuter Europe

/11

smikooman.bsky.social•9 days ago

And an immediate election to subvert. Wait for it.

transitionstate.bsky.social•6 days ago

Presumably also block Ukrainian, Georgian and Moldovan EU candidacy as well?

yrjo-o.bsky.social•9 days ago

Pretty much what Trump administration is proposing

samagreene.bsky.social•10 days ago

Keeping Ukraine out of NATO might be the one area where Trump can easily sign on. Although SecDef has partially walked back his ‘no-NATO’ statement, Trump himself has been reasonably clear on the topic, and this is one chip I’d expect to see him bargain away rather quickly. But it’s not enough.

/12

samagreene.bsky.social•10 days ago

Putin will want sanctions relief on finance, where Trump may well deal, but mostly on hydrocarbons, where he won’t. POTUS is committed to maintaining high enough oil prices to incentivize investment in US fields, and to keeping Russian gas out of Europe, in order to sell US LNG.

/13

skrapper.bsky.social•10 days ago

You sure?

vladopk.bsky.social•7 days ago

@unroll.skywriter.blue unroll

alansloan.bsky.social•9 days ago

Alternatively (argued on bbc r4 this am) flooding the FF matket with US gas & crude could bring prices gar enough down to wreck the Ru economy.

I have doubts on that what fo you think?

jacquep.bsky.social•7 days ago

Say the agreement reached by Putin and Trump is very deleterious against Ukraine, Europe will not want to purchase any Russian gas or oil or energy. So in a sense something self defeating for Russia. (Although of course Russia is selling to other nations)

samagreene.bsky.social•10 days ago

Trump, meanwhile, has been unusually consistent on the necessity of having European peacekeepers in Ukraine, which creates a problem for Putin. He needs a deal that ensures him of facing no consequence when (not if) he violates it. He doesn’t need the prospect of war with Europe.

/14

rocbrady.bsky.social•6 days ago

Who has invested interests in Rosneft, Lukoil, Gasprom?

climatenews.bsky.social•7 days ago

cc @justinmikulka.bsky.social

rocbrady.bsky.social•6 days ago

However, these options as you propose, do not include the perspectives of Zelensky & EU leaders, and their right to agency re their own future. Did you get a chance to hear Zelensky’s speech at Munich? He seems to consider a
new NATO force in Ukr , that establishes a united voice in defense of EU.

harkaway.bsky.social•9 days ago

That is at least realistic.

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