I think a lot of US election commentary effectively Red Waved itself--basing analysis on immediate outcome rather than a review of Trump's 1.6% margin and failure to break 50%. - ThreadSky

emptywheel.bsky.social • 90 days ago

I think a lot of US election commentary effectively Red Waved itself--basing analysis on immediate outcome rather than a review of Trump's 1.6% margin and failure to break 50%.

Reposted from David Rothkopf

Nothing at the moment is driving me quite as nuts as the folks who are earnestly preaching how Dems must reignite themselves because of their election “disaster.” On what planet? Trump edged out a candidate who had only 15 weeks to campaign and who was running against a global anti incumbent trend.

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coastal-cin.bsky.social•90 days ago

Not to mention the lack of the media in covering salient issues and lopsided coverage. He can be incoherent, but she needed to rival Einstein.

dark-chocolate.bsky.social•90 days ago

The fact that he never broke 47% before & since then he + his company were convicted of felonies, & 57 Senators voted to impeach him because he cited an insurrection in which his VP was almost assassinated, yet he ran ahead of R Senate candidates, is a very bad look for Ds ability to persuade voters

gibbetgiblits.bsky.social•90 days ago

Trump himself has shown the power of thermostatic public opinion, where despite post-2012 hand-wringing republicans simply doubled-down on unpopular conservative opinions to win 2/3 elections. I don’t think Dems need to do much pivoting to ride a wave of high propensity voters in 2026.

jordanahoward.bsky.social•90 days ago

Similarly, there is some messaging to do in minority communities and to young men -- healthy political parties do that. But there doesn't need to be wholesale changes from Dems to win Pres elections. They won one 4 years ago!

susanlois.bsky.social•90 days ago

There are so many election number disparities, and such obvious election fraud, that if there is not a federal audit, then the Democratic Party will seem neglectful and criminal, to not have even attempted to protect our democracy

babygurl985.bsky.social•90 days ago

I’m shocked! 🥸

scottysmalls.bsky.social•90 days ago

Nevertheless, Trump was an unpopular candidate. A lot of the votes he got were votes AGAINST Harris and the Dems more than votes FOR Trump. AND some people who can't stand Trump didn't vote for either. If the R's put up a better candidate next time but D's keep their liabilities with moderates, /1+

scottysmalls.bsky.social•90 days ago

It is gonna be tough sledding for y'all. Policies that alienate moderates so much that you couldn't get their votes even with Trump running are a problem. Just sayin'. /2

proscienceanddogs.bsky.social•90 days ago

Also worth noting:

Trump got 77 /245 million of eligible voters in 2025 (30% )

Trump campaigned for 8 years Kamala campaigned for 100 days
And yet he still won by the lowest popular vote win (1.5 %)

Trump did not get 50% of votes.

Not a mandate.
MAGA is just really loud.

andybop78.bsky.social•90 days ago

While this is all true; the GOP is led, at this point, by authoritarian minded people, and if they had won by one vote, would try to govern as if they had a mandate

michellemartin.bsky.social•90 days ago

I agree that media Red Waved itself, however, I don't think the call for Dems to reignite themselves is misplaced. We're going to need something even stronger to stem the oncoming authoritarian tide.

ringeraz.bsky.social•89 days ago

Totally on the D’s….I did my part as a moderate R.. until they can corral the extreme it’ll continue

lonestardemocrat.bsky.social•90 days ago

There’s so much data out there that it’s easy to trick yourself into thinking that things will end up in your favor somehow. I am guilty of this.

theunrealmikec.bsky.social•90 days ago

It was inflation and the border. It had nothing to do with being too woke.

Even if Kamala had more time, I doubt she could have educated more low information voters on how the US did so well considering the situation Biden walked into.

dustinwing.bsky.social•90 days ago

The cost of living is a real issue but the border "crisis" is pure BS, and Democrats red pilled themselves on it. We needed workers to help get inflation under control. Would it be better if they were documented, sure, but don't help the GOP push an anti-immigrant narrative.

theunrealmikec.bsky.social•90 days ago

I'm not pushing anything, just looking at exit polls.

dustinwing.bsky.social•90 days ago

Not you specifically, I'm talking about Dems in general talking tough on immigration. It helped the GOP because it gave credence to the border issue. There is no way to win that fight with F'in Nazis

scotstirling.bsky.social•90 days ago

Two minutes of scrolling and I see posts about "how the Democrats lost their base and the election" and also that Harris got a bigger % of the popular vote than most other Democratic presidential candidates in the last generation, that she underperformed & also overperformed, etc etc. It was close.

joepd.bsky.social•90 days ago

We are a country whose electorate is half urban and half rural/small town. We have not been so divided since the mid-19th c. Then it was North/South - it was regional & sectional. Today it's less regional, but more sectional. We need to understand this more clearly.

tonyaaj.bsky.social•89 days ago

zugernat.bsky.social•90 days ago

I mostly agree, but the EC is what it is. If you’re in the red zone 10 times and fail to score you might be close but you still have a problem.

emptywheel.bsky.social•90 days ago

Last I checked the Dems won the EC three of the last four attempts.

zugernat.bsky.social•90 days ago

You mean two of the last four? Popular vote, yes. I’m just saying, to extend the metaphor, that the strategy to win with a last-second 55-yard field goal may not be the best. If that’s the best you can do, sure, but I don’t think it is.

actualbriam.bsky.social•90 days ago

It is impossible to ignore that Democrats have now lost twice to Trump by running unpopular and uninspiring campaigns. It’s a huge warning sign that voters do not think Dems will positively change their lives. They should be doing huge margins against an authoritarian felon.

jqjacobs.bsky.social•90 days ago

How many people were denied their right to vote?
Selective voter purging altered the Florida 2000 outcome and that tactic, now a national strategy in swing states, tips the scales of democracy.
https://www.watchvigilantesinc.com/

dvonseggern.bsky.social•90 days ago

It was, however, a disaster none the less and we need to learn from it what we can.

jcstarbuck.bsky.social•90 days ago

Trump's real election results are more meaningful to the more trad Republicans in the GOP. They know there will be elections after Trump. Watch the Senate. Trump's real opposition will come from within the GOP.

tom1970.bsky.social•89 days ago

We have some things to work on. Not as much as them.

leftoflansing.bsky.social•89 days ago

Disagree. I don't think we're Red Waving ourselves. We were caught-off guard that Trump could even win the popular vote, though. And in Michigan, Dems lost the state House. I think when you lose the WH, Congress, and state House majorities, self-reflection in the wake of authoritarianism in needed.

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