🔥 This graph is very important.
The Russian govt has been struggling to keep the exchange rate with the USD under 100.
Any panic and there could be a nosedive of the Russian economy.
Russia converted into a war economy in 2022 (in a way European democracies can’t) but it’s now losing control.
The Russian govt has been struggling to keep the exchange rate with the USD under 100.
Any panic and there could be a nosedive of the Russian economy.
Russia converted into a war economy in 2022 (in a way European democracies can’t) but it’s now losing control.
Comments
https://youtu.be/DIMuaJejZVY?si=v8Ubts3uIgQ9v1U8
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=CNY&view=1W
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=1W
The economic blow, however, has been struck and is lasting.
https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/s/russia-matters
https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/s/russia-matters
So Russia will continue as a flat line here as it flies blind.
China still buys a lot of oil from Russia (ESPO and Power of Siberia natgas pipelines have been maxed out since the war began) so some yuan-ruble activity has to be happening. China needs the oil.
I guess
The real inflation rate in Russia is unknown outside the Kremlin, but must be over 20% based on the RCB's anemic bond sales.
If the phone 9% inflation rate yields 3% growth, then 20% yields 8% GDP decline.
The fall is consecutive to a decision. It could go up in the next days, to show "strength" of russian economy.
In the long run, will go down every time Russian gov needs cash, margins, for war
Expensive for them, but I expect the Trump administration to quickly release frozen Ru Central Bank assets in return for some hefty personal bribes, so they can keep going. We'll see.
Business "Спасибо!"
Then it is war.
And Russia will lose.
- Healthcare for all
- An educated population
- Robotic manufacturing
- Domestic energy
- Domestic supply chains
- No deficit and a strong dollar
And take the billionaire’s money; we can’t afford them
One of those "experts" who makes mere mortals look foolish.
Oh, well. I'm stocking up on wheat in Farmville, so I'm covered.
Putin cares less about human life than even Donald Trump.
And that's a low bar.
A quick victory by Ukraine would have eliminated the chance of WW3. It increases by stretching it out, because although Putin makes strategic pauses, he will not stop until he is stopped.
Also I have no doubt that the military commanders are very well paid and loyal to their homeland.
That must have been a lonely moment, halfway to Moscow and suddenly nobody is returning your phonecalls.
Current estimates are 80,000 Ukrainians dead, and 700,000 Russians. How many of those might have been spared if Ukraine had been given the tools to win 900 days ago?
So, no appreciable difference to what I stated. Either way, it's not critical to the point I was making.
I honestly can't believe that a) people make this argument, and b) there are people who actually believe it.
Today’s Update :
Bank of Russia has shut up shop, thus denying access to live data …
https://youtu.be/DIMuaJejZVY?si=_2nvn-RJ4uk-4OK3
YT’s Joe Bloggs is monitoring this situation closely - not Will but Can the Russian Central Bank shore up the looming economic catastrophy …
The real conundrum that Trump's puppet master will have is how to switch from a wartime economy to a peacetime one in a country that has little of value to export other than natural resources.
Russia is close to an economic death spiral.