Musk has pledged 238M shares -- 58% of his shares! (Likely max debt of $47B) We don't need to know the margin call ($100-114 👀) to see his empire crumble. His stock's worth $93.7B. If it drops to $114 he'd be worth $47B and owe $47B. See the problem? There's more 👇 www.splinter.com/tesla-is-cra... - ThreadSky

lucasbrowneyes.bsky.social • 3 hours ago

Musk has pledged 238M shares -- 58% of his shares! (Likely max debt of $47B)

We don't need to know the margin call ($100-114 👀) to see his empire crumble. His stock's worth $93.7B. If it drops to $114 he'd be worth $47B and owe $47B. See the problem? There's more

👇
https://www.splinter.com/tesla-is-crashing-sec-filings-hint-at-how-elon-could-lose-his-riches

Comments

bluespook.bsky.social•1 hour ago

Like he said… there will be some hardship.

themonstermensch.bsky.social•2 hours ago

God, it's not enough and I'm sure there's some financial tricks up his sleeve, but seeing Elon off of the billionaire list gives me some joy.

skiddius.bsky.social•2 hours ago

There's no trick unfortunately. The lender(s) simply don't recall the loan. They are willing to bet the potential loss on the fact that he will pay it off, along with whatever interest he accrued in the meantime.

darrellcortez.bsky.social•2 hours ago

BREAK HIS ASS!!!!!

skiddius.bsky.social•2 hours ago

His money isn't just tsla, and it's up to the discretion of the lender to recall a loan. Nobody is going to recall a loan on Musk. I hate him. I fucking wish he could be ruined by Tesla falling in value. But lenders won't crash the collateral with a margin call, and they think he's good for it.

lucasbrowneyes.bsky.social•2 hours ago

A stock drops from $400 to $100... people's opinion changes. SpaceX has a high valuation -- but so did TrumpCo or any Tech Stock.

If he had cash like that, he wouldn't have had to sell so much Tesla in 2022.

skiddius.bsky.social•2 hours ago

Not going to happen. He is more than just Tesla and he's effectively the leader of the free world. Even beyond the fact that they wouldn't recall the loan in normal times, they're not going to do it while he has effectively unlimited, unchecked power.

mennonite.bsky.social•2 hours ago

"Leader of the free world" 😂

Yeah, America has given up the right to use that title

lucasbrowneyes.bsky.social•2 hours ago

In a very cynical way... which... a large part of me is. Yeah...

But the other part of me thinks that you don't mess with rich people's money. Bernie Madoff was untouchable until he wasn't. And unless he has blackmail on Trump, Musk is only valuable if he's richer than the other oligarchs.

dogefort.bsky.social•1 hour ago

You mean if Tesla drops down to something like something pedestrian lile 50x price to earning ratio?

bonka.bsky.social•2 hours ago

Oh please God let this happen. Make him the saddest pimple in the history of mankind.

lacarlos.bsky.social•8 minutes ago

Thank you for all this work. 🙏🏽

siendorionn.bsky.social•48 minutes ago

I'd love to see the banks come to collect, but what I'd love even more is to see MBS call in his markers

vonhonkington.bsky.social•59 minutes ago

My hot take is black rock or even the govt will try to backstop these loans but I don't think even that stops the business trajectory

lucasbrowneyes.bsky.social•3 hours ago

Whatever the margin call ($100-114 👀) He has to put in cash or securities to satisfy it. But what happens when he sells a lot of stock? It drives his price down further.

November 8th 2022 he sold 4.4M shares (1% of his shares) and the next day the stock dropped 7%

lucasbrowneyes.bsky.social•3 hours ago

His late 2022 stock sales helped drive Tesla from $308 in September to $108 in December -- a 65% decline.

Some speculate he got margin called and had to satisfy. A lot portion of it was to put up cash for his twitter deal

lucasbrowneyes.bsky.social•3 hours ago

The 2022 purchase of Tesla. Elon lies & says he "doesn't like to leverage" to obfuscate this.

Mostly likely his late 22' sell off (that helped Tesla drop 65%) was to fund this and/or satisfy other loans. His pledged share ratio went up 6.33% and it seems he's maxed out at 58%

lucasbrowneyes.bsky.social•2 hours ago

*purchase of twitter

lucasbrowneyes.bsky.social•3 hours ago

So let's say Tesla drops to $100 if he hits a margin call on any one of his loans -- he'll have to put in cash or securities to satisfy it. It seems like he can pledge more. So if he were to sell even 5% of Tesla to satisfy those...

lucasbrowneyes.bsky.social•3 hours ago

Well, that could (as we've seen in the past) lead to a 60% drop ($40 a share is still overpriced mind you) Now his shares of Tesla are worth $16.4B & he still owes $47B. Plus I imagine a stock price that low will lead to other calls.

And that's how an empire crumbles...

lucasbrowneyes.bsky.social•2 hours ago

Read the Splinter article -- it's way better & gives a lot of the different scenarios that makes the article more accurate than a thread. But this highlights how it's possible to see the crumble based on past history & likely debt. But even if the debt was different, the crumble could still happen.

lucasbrowneyes.bsky.social•2 hours ago

"What about SpaceX? He could sell that and satisfy loans or margin calls."

SpaceX isn't a public stock. That's all valuation of a company that's tied up in government contracts. And as we all know from Trump and quite frankly a long history of Tech Startups -- Valuation ISN'T MONEY.

lucasbrowneyes.bsky.social•2 hours ago

@jerryrigeverything.bsky.social you asked about the $114 margin call, here's more information on his pledge shares (based on SEC filings) and what would happen if he were to hit his margin call... it's bad.