If Musk "believes we’ll reach artificial general intelligence (AGI) in a couple of years," we can extrapolate from his annual "next year" estimates for full self-driving going back a decade and conclude that AGI will not exist for at least another 80 years. - ThreadSky

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maxkennerly.bsky.social • 145 days ago

If Musk "believes we’ll reach artificial general intelligence (AGI) in a couple of years," we can extrapolate from his annual "next year" estimates for full self-driving going back a decade and conclude that AGI will not exist for at least another 80 years.

Reposted from Elizabeth Lopatto

looool www.theverge.com/2024/10/3/24...

Comments

cthulul.bsky.social•144 days ago

I don't have any reason to doubt him.
-posted from my self-driving Tesla Mars rover

blank.org•145 days ago

Also was can safely assume that whatever group of people _do_ make any signficant inroads on the problem will do so with relatively zero fanfare and will be in no way connected to him (cf Waymo).

cphlo.bsky.social•144 days ago

...and proto-'Merlin' engines being developed by TRW before SpaceX ever existed, and AC Propulsion tech existing before he ever shoehorned his way into the Tesla boardroom, and Big Gemini/VA capsules being developed by McDonnell/Soviets before SpaceX ever existed, etc.

tolska.bsky.social•130 days ago

I think its coming sooner, but it wont be "profitable" for a long time.. truth be told i dont think AGI can make "mega bucks" like people believe it could

dmrma413.bsky.social•145 days ago

Actually that's probably pretty close give or take a decade

bryyyyguy.bsky.social•144 days ago

And thank god for that

allthepages.org•144 days ago

I was going to say if he actually believes it, he's sniffing his own farts, but your point makes more sense.

steroughley.bsky.social•144 days ago

Absolute scenes of stupidity like nothing I've ever known 🤦 Any perceived link between money and intelligence whether feigned or otherwise has long been severed and irreversibly cauterised. It's nothing but chaos it seems now

timmorton2.bsky.social•144 days ago

anitramwaju.malauren.be•144 days ago

But will it be before or after he goes to Mars?

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